MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 29th Page Two
Arizona at Cincinnati
| Arizona | Cincinnati | ||||||||
| Trevor Cahill | Vegas Moneyline | Mike Leake | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CIN (-135) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.292 | 0.803 | 0.361 | 14.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.279 | 0.755 | 0.336 | 14.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.691 | 0.316 | 20.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.665 | 0.301 | 18.2% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP  | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Trevor Cahill – In 6 starts (21 appearances total), Cahill has a 5.70 ERA this season. His xFIP is almost a full 2 runs lower, but he’s only recently been re-inserted back into the rotation. He hasn’t thrown more than 75 pitches in either of his last two starts which really limits his fantasy potential. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5000 FD, $9750 DD, $5200 DK, $40000 FF, $13000 SS, $9750 FTD
- Mike Leake – Leake has solid numbers across the board. He owns a 3.73 ERA (3.41 xFIP) with a K/9 of 6.8. He’s produced a career high ground ball rate of 53% which has really helped him keep the ball in the park, especially at the HR-friendly Great American Ballpark. Leake is an interesting play tonight, but the Reds have not given their starters any run support recently which does hurt his chances of picking up the win. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7800 FD, $13150 DD, $7300 DK, $81900 FF, $21200 SS, $13150 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
Miguel Montero – Leake has not pitched well against batters from the left side of the plate this season. He’s given up a .372 wOBA to lefties and Montero has good power against righties. Montero has lost his clean-up spot to Mark Trumbo, but still makes a nice option batting 5th.
Additional Plays: David Peralta
Cincinnati
Billy Hamilton – I’m predicting at least 1 SB from Hamilton tonight. He’s facing a RH pitcher who has already given up 12 SB’s in only 50 innings of work this season. Look for B-Ham to have the green light on the base pads tonight.
Additional Plays: Jay Bruce
Milwaukee at Tampa Bay
| Milwaukee | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Matt Garza | Vegas Moneyline | Alex Cobb | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-133) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.687 | 0.308 | 20.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.645 | 0.290 | 22.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.663 | 0.299 | 19.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.650 | 0.303 | 21.5% |
| Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Matt Garza – Garza has been extremely inconsistent this season, especially when it comes to his strikeouts. He’s also struggled on the road with a 5.36 ERA. This isn’t a terrible matchup as the Rays are pretty average against RH pitching, but Garza’s inconsistency takes him out of play tonight. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7600 FD, $15000 DD, $7900 DK, $83500 FF, $22500 SS, $15000 FTD
- Alex Cobb – Dollar for dollar, Cobb is one of the best values on the board tonight. He is very affordable and draws a nice matchup against the Brewers whose lineup is extremely RH hitter heavy. Cobb has held RH hitters to a .290 wOBA in his career with a career 20% K-rate. Cobb has a nice K/9 this season of 8.1 and he’s pitching at home where he’s posted an ERA under 3.00 throughout his career. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7900 FD, $14200 DD, $8200 DK, $101900 FF, $22900 SS, $14200 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
There aren’t any plays that stand out tonight on the Brewers.
Tampa Bay
Matt Joyce – Joyce has 11 hits over his last 10 games and continues to hit RH pitching well. He has a .359 wOBA vs. righties this season and should be batting 3rd again tonight for the red hot Rays.
Additional Plays: James Loney
Philadelphia at NY Mets
| Philadelphia | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Cole Hamels | Vegas Moneyline | Dillon Gee | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | PHI (-115) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.659 | 0.298 | 25.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.789 | 0.348 | 15.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.677 | 0.306 | 22.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.628 | 0.283 | 18.5% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Cole Hamels – Hamels is having a terrific season. He has a 2.72 ERA (3.18 xFIP) with a K/9 of 9.2 and he’s only giving up 0.59 HR’s per 9 innings. Expect him to keep it in the ballpark again tonight against the Mets in Citi Field. The Mets have been pretty average against LH pitching this season, but strike out at a 24.5% clip which is the 2nd highest in baseball. Rating = 8.5
Salaries: $9500 FD, $19800 DD, $10700 DK, $124300 FF, $29200 SS, $18550 FTD
- Dillon Gee – The majority of DFS players will be targeting Hamels in this game which makes Gee an interesting contrarian play. He’s facing a Phillies’ offense that was shut down by Bartolo Colon last night. The Phillies are ranked 28th in wOBA vs. RH pitching and Gee has always pitched well in the pitcher-friendly confines of Citi Field (2.84 ERA this season). Rating = 6
Salaries: $6600 FD, $13150 DD, $7700 DK, $75000 FF, $22200 SS, $13150 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
The Phillies have not hit RH pitching well this season and are playing in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. There are better matchups to exploit.
NY Mets
David Wright – Wright has a .436 wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. Even though Citi Field isn’t set up well for RH hitters, he is in play tonight against Hamels. Wright also has a nice track record against Hamels going 24/73 with 10 XBH’s off of him in his career.
Additional Plays: None
NY Yankees at Texas
| NY Yankees | Texas | ||||||||
| Brandon McCarthy | Vegas Moneyline | Nick Martinez | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-144) | RIGHT | 9.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.301 | 0.760 | 0.335 | 18.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.321 | 0.948 | 0.413 | 9.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.292 | 0.768 | 0.345 | 14.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.810 | 0.348 | 10.0% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Brandon McCarthy – McCarthy has pitched well as a member of the Yankees and one of those starts was against the Rangers. I’ve been harping all season that McCarthy’s peripheral pitching stats look much better than his ERA. McCarthy has an impressive 2.89 xFIP this season with a respectable K/9 of 7.7. Even though this game will be played in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park, McCarthy makes a nice upside play in tournaments. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6700 FD, $13450 DD, $7400 DK, $87400 FF, $21000 SS, $13450 FTD
- Nick Martinez – Martinez has had a rookie season to forget. He has a 4.73 ERA and his 5.71 xFIP suggests regression. To add to that, Martinez is only averaging 4 K’s per 9 innings which matches his walk rate of 4 per 9 innings. Avoid Martinez tonight is just common sense. Rating = 3
Salaries: $5100 FD, $8950 DD, $4900 DK, $40000 FF, $13300 SS, $8950 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Brett Gardner – How about Gardner last night? Two solo shots off of Darvish. He now has 4 career hits against Darvish, all of which went for HR’s. He draws a nice matchup tonight against Martinez who has been awful against batters from the left side of the plate this season.
Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann
Texas
Adrian Beltre – Beltre has been good against RH pitching (.380 wOBA), he’s been great at home (.440 wOBA), and he has a great track record against McCarthy: 14/36 with 6 XBH’s in his career.
Additional Plays: Shin-Soo Choo
Colorado at Chicago Cubs
| Colorado | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Jorge De La Rosa | Vegas Moneyline | Edwin Jackson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | CHC (-113) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.183 | 0.485 | 0.225 | 23.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.309 | 0.843 | 0.378 | 18.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.770 | 0.349 | 13.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.740 | 0.330 | 18.6% |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jorge De La Rosa – As surprising as it may be, De La Rosa actually pitches much better at home (Coors Field) than he does on the road. He has a 5.37 ERA on the road this season and has a pretty tough matchup tonight against the Cubs who are a very sneaky offense against LH pitching. The Cubs are ranked 4th in wOBA vs. southpaws this season. The wind is slightly blowing out to right too which doesn’t help his cause. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $6800 FD, $12100 DD, $6900 DK, $100300 FF, $18600 SS, $12100 FTD
- Edwin Jackson – Jackson has a 5.74 ERA on the season, but his xFIP is almost a full 2 runs lower. That suggests that his ERA will eventually come closer to his xFIP. Jackson is averaging 8 K’s per 9 innings and he’s one of the cheapest pitchers in the player pool tonight. With the Rockies’ struggles on the road this season, Jackson could make a nice tournament play. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $5800 FD, $10700 DD, $5600 DK, $40000 FF, $13700 SS, $10700 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Corey Dickerson – Dickerson may have the highest combined wOBA matchup tonight. Jackson has given up a .397 wOBA to LH hitters and Dickerson owns a .438 wOBA vs. RH pitching.
Additional Plays: Charlie Blackmon
Chicago Cubs
Emilio Bonifacio – EMILIOOOOO! If you are looking for a cheap play at 2B, look no further than Emilio. He has been great against LH pitching this season with a .405 wOBA. He’s also racked up 10 hits over his last 7 games.
Additional Plays: Starlin Castro