MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 8th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
NY Yankees at Cleveland
| NY Yankees | Cleveland | ||||||||
| Masahiro Tanaka | Vegas Moneyline | Trevor Bauer | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | NYY (-148) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.590 | 0.263 | 23.1% | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.758 | 0.345 | 16.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.207 | 0.593 | 0.266 | 35.9% | SP vs. Right | 0.281 | 0.784 | 0.342 | 24.1% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP  | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Masahiro Tanaka – Tanaka and his impressive 2.27 ERA and 9.6 K/9 take the mound tonight against the Indians. On first glance, this may seem like a tough matchup, but Tanaka has held LH batters to a .263 wOBA this season which really bodes well for his matchup against the Indians. Tanaka has struck out at least 6 batters in 9 of his last 10 starts and may be worth the expensive price tag tonight. Rating = 8
Salaries: $11000 FD, $23012 DS, $20100 DD, $11300 DK, $147200 FF, $32400 SS, $20100 FTD
- Trevor Bauer – Bauer has been consistent this season, but he’s been consistently average. He’s pitched at least 5 innings in each of his last 6 starts, but has also given up at least 3 runs in each of those starts. He should be avoided on single pitcher sites, but the price is cheap enough that he could make sense as a 3rd pitcher on a multi-pitcher site. The Yankees are ranked 17th in wOBA against RH pitching. Rating = 5
Salaries: $5400 FD, $9492 DS, $12350 DD, $6200 DK, $61800 FF, $16200 SS, $12350 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
Brian McCann – McCann is starting to heat up. He has 12 hits (2 HR’s) over his last 10 games and is one of the top plays at catcher tonight. He is facing Bauer who has given up a .345 wOBA to LH hitters since the start of 2013.
Additional Plays: Brett Gardner, Mark Teixeira
Cleveland
Avoid all Indians’ hitters tonight. Tanaka has held LH and RH hitters under a .270 wOBA this season.
Baltimore at Washington
| Baltimore | Washington | ||||||||
| Bud Norris | Vegas Moneyline | Doug Fister | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | WAS (-152) | RIGHT | 8.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.825 | 0.366 | 15.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.269 | 0.692 | 0.312 | 18.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.239 | 0.628 | 0.292 | 21.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.286 | 0.695 | 0.318 | 16.8% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | WSN BvP | WSN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Bud Norris – Norris has been sidelined for the last 3 weeks with a groin strain, but will be on the mound tonight for the Orioles. That kind of injury isn’t likely to limit his pitch count. On the season, Norris has a 3.62 ERA with a K/9 of 6.2. Tonight he faces a Nationals’ offense that is ranked 22nd in wOBA against RH pitching. Overall, he’s an average to below average play tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $7000 FD, $NA DS, $12200 DD, $6600 DK, $90600 FF, $20300 SS, $12200 FTD
- Doug Fister – Fister is enjoying a nice season with the Nationals. Through his first 11 starts, Fister has a 2.93 ERA with a K/9 of 5.4. He does have a tough matchup against the Orioles though. The Orioles don’t strike out often on the road and are ranked 9th overall in wOBA against RH pitching this season. He’s a large favorite in this one, but there are better options at his price point. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7800 FD, $15289 DS, $15700 DD, $8300 DK, $99400 FF, $23200 SS, $16950 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Nelson Cruz – Cruz is locked in right now. If you try to pitch him outside, he’ll take it the other way and if you try to pitch him inside, he’ll pull the ball. He hit his 28th HR of the season off of Strasburg last night and makes a great upside play in all leagues tonight against Fister who has given up 9 HR’s in 11 starts.
Additional Plays: Manny Machado, Chris Davis
Washington
Adam LaRoche – Norris has always struggled vs. LH hitters. Since the start of 2013, Norris has given up a .366 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Meanwhile, LaRoche has a .405 wOBA against RH pitching this season.
Additional Plays: Bryce Harper
LA Dodgers at Detroit
| LA Dodgers | Detroit | ||||||||
| Hyun-Jin Ryu | Vegas Moneyline | Justin Verlander | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | DET (-119) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.282 | 0.732 | 0.327 | 17.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.242 | 0.668 | 0.301 | 21.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.631 | 0.283 | 20.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.294 | 0.786 | 0.347 | 20.4% |
| Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Hyun-Jin Ryu – Ryu is having another solid season. He’s posted a 3.08 ERA with a K/9 of 7.6. If there weren’t 14 other games on the schedule, I would consider taking Ryu, but there are better options at his price point. He’s facing a Tigers’ offense that is ranked 2nd in wOBA (.343) against LH pitching this season. Rating = 5
Salaries: $8300 FD, $17242 DS, $14500 DD, $9100 DK, $109300 FF, $23800 SS, $14500 FTD
- Justin Verlander – Verlander’s velocity is back and the strikeouts have followed. He’s struck out 20 batters over his last 3 starts and has only given up a combined 22 base-runners over that stretch. While the matchup against the Dodgers is a tough one, Verlander tends to pitch well in tough matchups. He’s one of my favorite tournament plays on the board tonight with his depressed salary. Rating = 6
Salaries: $7600 FD, $15681 DS, $13500 DD, $7100 DK, $68600 FF, $19100 SS, $13500 FTD
Batter Grind Down
LA Dodgers
Yasiel Puig – Verlander has actually shown us some reverse splits over the last 2 seasons. He’s given up a .347 wOBA to RH hitters while holding LH hitters to a .301 wOBA. Puig has 12 hits over his last 10 games and is a nice option in the OF if you aren’t sold on Verlander.
Additional Plays: Matt Kemp
Detroit
Ian Kinsler – If you want to spend up at 2B tonight, Kinsler is a solid option. He’s always hit LH pitching well and has 12 hits over his last 10 games.
Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez (if in the lineup)
Kansas City at Tampa Bay
| Kansas City | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Jason Vargas | Vegas Moneyline | Jeremy Hellickson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | TBR (-110) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.304 | 0.741 | 0.331 | 15.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 0.779 | 0.342 | 18.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.718 | 0.324 | 17.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.334 | 18.2% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Jason Vargas – Vargas is getting a lot of credit from Vegas tonight. The game is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of only 7.5 runs. I’m not sure that I’m buying into him tonight though. Sure, he has pitched well on the road (1.56 ERA), but he hasn’t struck out more than 5 batters in any of his last 6 starts. He’s also facing a Rays’ offense that has skyrocketed up the rankings vs. LH pitching. The Rays are now ranked 9th in wOBA against southpaws. In my eyes, Vargas is fools gold and I’ll be avoiding him tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6600 FD, $13302 DS, $12350 DD, $7700 DK, $94200 FF, $21400 SS, $12350 FTD
- Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson will make his 2014 major league debut tonight against the Royals. Hellickson owns a career 3.70 ERA with a 1.24 ERA. He will be a factor in daily fantasy baseball moving forward, but will likely be on a pitch count tonight and he’ll likely have to shake off some rust as well. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6900 FD, $8761 DS, $10150 DD, $6900 DK, $64600 FF, $13000 SS, $9200 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Alex Gordon – Last season Hellickson gave up a .342 wOBA to LH hitters. While the Royals’ offense certainly leaves much to be desired at times, they can string together hits and could take advantage of Hellickson’s first start of the season.
Additional Plays: Salvador Perez
Tampa Bay
Ben Zobrist – In addition to the lefty/righty matchup against Vargas, Zobrist also has past history on his side. Zobrist is 11/26 with 5 XBH’s off of Vargas in his career. He offers nice salary cap relief at 2B tonight.
Additional Plays: Desmond Jennings, Evan Longoria
Chicago White Sox at Boston
| Chicago White Sox | Boston | ||||||||
| John Danks | Vegas Moneyline | Brandon Workman | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | BOS (-148) | RIGHT | 9.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.763 | 0.337 | 11.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.650 | 0.290 | 23.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.259 | 0.762 | 0.337 | 17.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.663 | 0.304 | 24.5% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- John Danks – Danks has been a tough pitcher to predict all season long. When he has a tough matchup (like the Angels in his last start), he seems to pitch well. Then he’ll have an easier matchup and he’ll give up 5+ runs. He’s too risky for me to target in cash games, but the way the Red Sox are swinging their bats, he is certainly in play as a contrarian GPP option. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6200 FD, $11933 DS, $12600 DD, $7300 DK, $83000 FF, $19400 SS, $12600 FTD
- Brandon Workman – Workman is a favorite in tonight’s game, but is not a recommended fantasy option. He’s given up 10 earned runs over his last 2 starts and is facing a White Sox offense that is ranked 11th in wOBA against RH pitching. Workman’s price on DS is cheap enough that you can use him, but he should be avoided on the other major fantasy sites. Rating = 4
Salaries: $5000 FD, $6836 DS, $11500 DD, $6400 DK, $62100 FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Nelson Cruz homered last night and now is now leading the majors with 28 HR’s. Abreu is not going to let that stand for long. Abreu has 27 HR’s on the season and has a .414 wOBA against RH pitching this season. He’s on DONG ALERT tonight against the Red Sox.
Additional Plays: Adam Eaton
Boston
Dustin Pedroia – I’m not sure how many times we can get burned by the Red Sox bats, but once again I think the RH hitters are in play tonight. Pedroia has 16 hits over his last 11 games and has always hit LH pitching well.
Additional Plays: Mike Napoli
MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2
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