MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 23rd - Page 3
St. Louis at NY Mets
| St. Louis | NY Mets | ||||||||
| Michael Wacha | Vegas Moneyline | Jonathon Niese | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | STL (-140) | LEFT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.202 | 0.526 | 0.237 | 23.5% | SP vs. Left | 0.219 | 0.594 | 0.272 | 18.0% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.651 | 0.291 | 26.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.294 | 0.759 | 0.341 | 17.2% |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP  | STL vs L | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Michael Wacha – Wacha has been one of the most productive fantasy pitchers in baseball this season and continues to make a very strong play. The only problem is that his price has finally caught up to his recent level of production. Wacha has a 1.73 ERA this season with 25 K’s over 26 innings of work. He could easily post a double-digit strikeout performance tonight. Rating = 9
- Jonathan Niese – Niese has pitched well at Citi Field. Last season he posted a 2.70 ERA with a 1.28 WHIP in 14 home starts. Typically he would make a nice contrarian play in a GPP, but the Cardinals are very good against LH pitching and Niese may have a hard time getting any run support with Wacha on the mound opposite him. Rating = 5
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
- Yadier Molina – Molina crushes LH pitching. While he also crushed RH pitching, he hit for an .883 OPS against LH pitching last season and has a .904 OPS against LH pitching this season. Niese gave up a .341 wOBA to RH batters last season.
- Additional Plays: Allen Craig
NY Mets
- I avoided the Mets last night against Wainwright and am avoiding them again tonight against Wacha. They are more likely to get shut out than have a big day offensively.
- Additional Plays: None
Minnesota at Tampa Bay
| Minnesota | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
| Mike Pelfrey | Vegas Moneyline | Jake Odorizzi | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | TBR (-180) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.751 | 0.335 | 15.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.293 | 0.797 | 0.355 | 16.5% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.342 | 0.849 | 0.378 | 12.8% | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.646 | 0.287 | 18.9% |
| Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TBR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Mike Pelfrey – Pelfrey is one of the best pitchers in baseball to stack against. He has an ERA close to 8.00 this season and has a very low K-rate which means even the outs that he does get are often productive outs. Pelfrey gave up a .335+ wOBA to both RH and LH batters last season and should be avoided in all leagues tonight. Rating = 2
- Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is a big favorite tonight, but that says more about his opponent than it does about his outlook tonight. Odorizzi has a 5.63 ERA with only 12 K’s over 16 innings pitched. The Twins have scored the 4th most runs of any team this season and I think Odorizzi is an easy fade tonight. Rating = 3
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
- Joe Mauer – Last season Odorizzi gave up a .355 wOBA to LH batters and even though Mauer doesn’t have a ton of power, he makes a terrific play tonight. I’m expecting a multi-hit game from him with plenty of RBI opportunities.
- Additional Plays: Chris Colabello, Brian Dozier
Tampa Bay
- Matt Joyce – Hopefully you took my advice and employed a mini LH Rays stack last night against Gibson. I’m targeting that same stack tonight against Pelfrey who gave up a .335 wOBA to LH batters last season. Joyce is off to a terrific start this season batting .395 against RH pitching. I highly recommend taking a few Rays bats tonight against Pelfrey.
- Additional Plays: David Dejesus, James Loney, Evan Longoria, Wil Myers
NY Yankees at Boston
| NY Yankees | Boston | ||||||||
| Michael Pineda | Vegas Moneyline | John Lackey | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | BOS (-120) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.220 | 0.670 | 0.290 | 27.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.666 | 0.295 | 20.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.174 | 0.417 | 0.193 | 12.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.269 | 0.770 | 0.340 | 21.4% |
| Batter Splits | NYY BvP | NYY vs R | Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Michael Pineda – Pineda has looked great and the Yankees have to be happy with their rotation this season compared to the ugly rotation that they had last year. Pineda has a 1.00 ERA with 15 K’s over 18 innings of work. He faced this Red Sox lineup two weeks ago and held them to 1 earned run while striking out 7 batters. That start was in Yankee Stadium though and Pineda comes into this game in Fenway as a small favorite with a run total set at 8.5 runs. Rating = 5
- John Lackey – Even though Lackey posted solid numbers at home last season, I want nothing to do with pitchers against this Yankees’ lineup right now. The Yankees are firing on all cylinders and are starting to get healthy now that Mark Teixeira is back in the lineup. There are much better options than Lackey tonight. Ratiing = 4
Batter Grind Down
NY Yankees
- Jacoby Ellsbury – How about that first at bat back in Fenway? Ellsbury was close to an inside-the-park-HR, but it was ruled a triple after a fan interfered with the ball. Ellsbury is great against RH pitching and has 7 hits in his last 5 games.
- Additional Plays: Carlos Beltran, Brett Gardner
Boston
- David Ortiz – Pineda has been very good this season, but gives up a much higher wOBA and OPS to LH batter than he does to RH batters. If you are targeting any Red Sox tonight, target the ones that bat from the left side of the plate. Big Papi loves playing in Fenway and loves playing the Yankees.
- Additional Plays: Grady Sizemore
San Diego at Milwaukee
| San Diego | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Tyson Ross | Vegas Moneyline | Kyle Lohse | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-137) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.252 | 0.685 | 0.318 | 19.2% | SP vs. Left | 0.258 | 0.738 | 0.327 | 17.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.195 | 0.531 | 0.249 | 28.1% | SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.626 | 0.279 | 15.8% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP | SDP vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tyson Ross – Ross is a high strikeout pitcher that posts incredible numbers in Petco. He hasn’t been able to establish that same success on the road though. Over the last two seasons, his road ERA is nearly double that of his home ERA. Tonight he faces a tough Brewers lineup in the very hitter-friendly Miller Park. Too much downside with Ross tonight. Rating = 4
- Kyle Lohse – Lohse has a 2.67 ERA this season with a 1.11 WHIP and an impressive 26 K’s over 27 innings of work. Lohse’s price has gone up across the industry, but I think he makes a great play against a struggling Padres’ offense. He should get the run support to back his cause. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
- Everth Cabrera – Lohse did give up a .327 wOBA to LH batters last season and Cabrera has a very high OBP. Not only that, but he is one of the fastest players in the league and is always a threat to steal a base. Over the last two seasons he has stolen 37 and 44 bases.
- Additional Plays: Chase Headley
Milwaukee
- Scooter Gennett – Ross has been very good against RH batters over the last two seasons, but he has given up a .318 wOBA to LH batters. Scooter not only has one of the best names in baseball, but he is batting .327 against RH pitching this season and batting .357 at home.
- Additional Plays: Ryan Braun
Philadelphia at LA Dodgers
| Philadelphia | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
| Cole Hamels | Vegas Moneyline | Zack Greinke | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| LEFT | LAD (-170) | RIGHT | 6.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.704 | 0.314 | 24.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.731 | 0.328 | 20.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.243 | 0.680 | 0.307 | 21.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.210 | 0.551 | 0.253 | 23.5% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | LAD BvP | LAD vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Cole Hamels – The final game of the night features two very good pitchers. Hamels will be making his first start of the season after missing the first few with a biceps injury. Hamels looked good in his minor league rehab start and is hoping for another stellar season. He got off to a slow start last year, but posted an ERA under 3.00 with a K/9 of 8.3 over his last 13 starts. I’m going to take a wait and see approach here, but he will be an attractive option moving forward. Rating = 6
- Zack Greinke – Ever since coming to the Dodgers, Greinke has been terrific at Dodgers Stadium. In his last 15 starts at home, Greinke has a 2.15 ERA with a WHIP under 1.00 and a K/9 of 8.6. He is right there with Wacha as the best pitching options on the board and I will be heavily targeting him in all leagues. Rating = 10
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
- The Phillies offense has been great this season, but I fully expect Greinke to mow through this lineup. I will not have any exposure to any Phillies’ bats tonight.
- Additional Plays: None
LA Dodgers
- Hanley Ramirez – Hamels could be a little rusty in his first start of the season and I really like Hanley tonight at SS if you can afford him. Hanley hit for a 1.14 OPS against LH pitching last season and has 12 XBH’s off of Hamels in his career.
- Additional Plays: Yasiel Puig