MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 9th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

San Diego at Cleveland

San Diego Cleveland
Eric Stults Vegas Moneyline Zach McAllister Vegas Over/Under
LEFT CLE (-137) RIGHT 8.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.185 0.543 0.244 18.0% SP vs. Left 0.249 0.737 0.330 17.1%
SP vs. Right 0.301 0.776 0.341 14.5% SP vs. Right 0.267 0.717 0.324 17.9%
Batter Splits SDP BvP pop up 2 SDP vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits CLE BvP pop up 2 CLE vs L pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Eric Stults – Stults ran into the red hot Marlins in his first start of the season and gave up 5 earned runs in only 4 innings of work. Stults is typically a pitcher that you don’t want to target away from Petco. In 18 road starts last season, he posted a 4.77 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP. His K/9 last season was very pedestrian at only 5.8. Stults is a decent sized underdog and has a tough matchup against the Indians. Rating = 4
  • Zach McAllister – McAllister pitched very well for the Indians last season with a 3.75 ERA a K/9 of 6.8. He got roughed up in his first start of the season, but has a much better matchup this time around. The Padres offense is one of the worst in the National League and McAllister should get some run support to back his cause. While he’s not an ace by any means, he is a nice play at his price points. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

  • Seth Smith – Smith has already hit 2 HR’s this season and has a nice matchup against McAllister who gave up a .330 wOBA last season to LH batters. Smith is extremely cheap across the industry as well.

Cleveland

  • Carlos Santana – Stults held LH batters to a .244 wOBA last season so you may want to avoid Jason Kipnis and Michael Brantley here. Stults did however struggle against RH batters as he gave up a .341 wOBA to RH bats last season. Santana hit for a .299 average against LH pitching last season and makes a solid play here.
  • Nick Swisher – Swisher is getting old, but he still has some great power in his bat against LH pitching. Last season he hit for a .297 batting average and an OPS over .900 against lefties.


Oakland at Minnesota

Oakland Minnesota
Jesse Chavez Vegas Moneyline Phil Hughes Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT OAK (-119) RIGHT 8.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.246 0.610 0.297 21.2% SP vs. Left 0.298 0.859 0.376 19.0%
SP vs. Right 0.212 0.587 0.270 23.4% SP vs. Right 0.286 0.776 0.342 18.6%
Batter Splits OAK BvP pop up 2 OAK vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits MIN BvP pop up 2 MIN vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Jesse Chavez – Chavez looked pretty good in his first start of the season, but he is a pitcher that has very limited upside. He has spent a lot of his career coming out of the bullpen and this Twins offense has been very good to start the season. Chavez has a high K-rate, but it’s a different story when you are starting compared to coming out of the bullpen. I do not recommend taking him today. Rating = 4
  • Phil Hughes – Hughes picked up right where he left off last season. He gave up 4 earned runs in 5 innings of work. While I do expect him to bounce back this season, I’m not going to roll him out in cash games anytime soon. Especially not against the A’s. Hughes gave up a .376 wOBA to LH batters last season and the A’s have some of the best hitters in baseball from that side of the plate. Rating = 2

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

  • Brandon Moss – Another RH pitcher for the A’s and another Moss suggestion. He has yet to really let us down and has had big outings in back to back games. Moss hit for a .909 OPS against RH pitching last season and I’m calling it now: Moss will come through as the “Dong of the Day.”
  • Jed Lowrie – Lowrie had a HR stolen from him the other day, but he’s not going to let that slow him down. Lowrie is a switch hitter and like I mentioned above, Hughes gave up a .376 wOBA to LH batters last season. Lowrie is cheap and has great upside in a very favorable matchup.

Minnesota

  • Joe Mauer – Mauer is off to a slow start this season, but he’s one of the best hitters in baseball and it’s only a matter of time before he gets things going. Mauer hit for a .324 batting average against RH pitching last season and has the splits in his favor against Chavez.


Cincinnati at St. Louis

Cincinnati St. Louis
Mike Leake Vegas Moneyline Shelby Miller Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT STL (-152) RIGHT 7.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.263 0.710 0.316 13.6% SP vs. Left 0.266 0.756 0.335 21.6%
SP vs. Right 0.263 0.706 0.320 16.8% SP vs. Right 0.205 0.574 0.264 25.0%
Batter Splits CIN BvP pop up 2 CIN vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits STL BvP pop up 2 STL vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Mike Leake – Leake did not pitch up to his expectations in his first start. He gave up 2 HR’s to Lucas Duda which led to him receiving the loss. Leake is a big underdogs (+142) today against the Cardinals and I’m not sold on him in this matchup. Leake struggles against both RH and LH batters and the Cardinals lineup is stacked. Rating = 4
  • Shelby Miller – Miller will hopefully have a better performance than Lance Lynn did last night, although Lynn did manage to pick up the win. Miller was close to unhittable last season at home as he posted a 1.75 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP and a K/9 of 8.8 over 16 starts at home. He’s a relatively big favorite and makes for a terrific cash game play. Rating = 8

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

  • Joey Votto – While I probably won’t be targeting any Reds bats in cash games, the LH batters do make nice tournament plays as Miller gave up a .335 wOBA to LH batters last season. Votto crushes RH pitching and his price is down across the industry.

St. Louis

  • Yadier Molina – I love targeting Molina when he is locked in because there are few better hitters in baseball. Molina has 4 hits and 4 RBI’s over his last 2 games and makes a nice play at Catcher on a day where the Catcher position seems a little thin.
  • Matt Carpenter – I mentioned this in yesterday’s Grind Down: Carpenter is an on-base machine. He gets on base by hitting singles, doubles, and drawing walks and then he lets the big bats behind him knock him in. Carpenter hit for a .329 batting average against RH pitching last season and a .360 batting average at home.


Tampa Bay at Kansas City

Tampa Bay Kansas City
Jake Odorizzi Vegas Moneyline Jeremy Guthrie Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT TBR (-111) RIGHT 8.5
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.293 0.816 0.369 13.6% SP vs. Left 0.331 0.898 0.393 11.2%
SP vs. Right 0.208 0.627 0.273 23.2% SP vs. Right 0.225 0.610 0.277 13.6%
Batter Splits TBR BvP pop up 2 TBR vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits KCR BvP pop up 2 KCR vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Jake Odorizzi – Is it just me or has this series been void of fantasy options. Odorizzi has pretty limited upside and draws a bad fantasy matchup against the Royals who do not strikeout often. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of 8.5 runs. Neither pitcher makes a great fantasy play today. Rating = 3
  • Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie is a pitcher that has always had an ERA over 4.00. Last season he posted a K/9 of only 4.7 which is one of the lowest that you will find among starting pitchers. With a tough matchup against the Rays and a very low K-rate, Guthrie should be avoided. Rating = 3

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

  • Matt Joyce – Guthrie is pretty decent against RH batters, but is dreadful against LH batters. Last season he gave up a .393 wOBA with an OPS of .898 to LH batters. The Rays don’t have a ton of powerful bats from the left side of the plate, but they should all find some success against Guthrie here.

Kansas City

  • Eric Hosmer – Hosmer is one of those players that is rarely rostered in DFS. It’s a combination of the fact that he plays 1B and the fact that he plays for the Royals. That said, he has nice power against RH pitching and Odorizzi gave up a .369 wOBA to LH batters last season.


Chicago White Sox at Colorado

Chicago White Sox Colorado
Erik Johnson Vegas Moneyline Juan Nicasio Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT COL (-153) RIGHT 10.0
Stats Avg OPS wOBA K% Stats Avg OPS wOBA K%
SP vs. Left 0.348 0.999 0.434 12.7% SP vs. Left 0.228 0.730 0.333 18.8%
SP vs. Right 0.178 0.491 0.220 16.3% SP vs. Right 0.302 0.814 0.362 15.3%
Batter Splits CHW BvP pop up 2 CHW vs R pop up 2 Batter Splits COL BvP pop up 2 COL vs R pop up 2
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

  • Erik Johnson / Juan Nicasio – I seem to give the same argument day in and day out when there is a game in Coors Field. I’ll save you time today by just recommending that you avoid all pitchers in Coors, ALWAYS! Combined Rating = 0

Batter Grind Down

Chicago

  • Adam Eaton – The entire White Sox lineup is in play once again tonight after putting up 15 runs in Coors last night. Coors is a hitter’s dream ballpark. Eaton has a nice matchup against Nicasio who gave up a .333 wOBA to LH batters last season. Eaton should bat leadoff and he has the ability to steal bases which is always a plus.
  • Jose Abreu – I’ve been raving about Abreu since the start of the season and we finally saw some of the power that he has in his bat last night as he hit 2 HR’s. He has another nice matchup in Coors and should be targeted in all leagues.

Colorado

  • Troy Tulowitzki – I have little to no faith in Johnson to begin with, especially now that he is pitching in Coors. Tulo is going to get regular days off this season and he has played 3 days in a row so just make sure that he is in the lineup before taking him. As long as he is in the Rockies’ lineup, he should also be in your lineup. He’s easily the top SS on the board today.
  • Carlos Gonzalez – Cargo crushes RH pitching (over 1.00 OPS last season) and always hits well at home. Johnson gave up a .434 wOBA to LH batters last season and Cargo may be the top overall play on the board if you can find a way to get him in your lineup. He should be well rested after sitting out yesterday’s game.


MLB Grind Down Page 1Page 2

About the Author

  • Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

  • Derek Farnsworth, aka Notorious, is one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS, thanks in large part to the great advice he gives on a daily basis in RotoGrinders.com’s Grind Down for NBA and MLB as well as the First Look column that gives a preview of the day’s games from a DFS perspective. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Masters Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in multiple sports. Farnsworth provides expert analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis during the NBA season and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards.

    Notorious

    Interview after $100,000 Win

Comments

  • mpakt

    Who would you suggest other than Miller at starting pitcher for early games?

  • mwalker4

    IS there a breakdown for game 2 of the DH between SD and Cle?

  • johnnyjakes

    I like Chavez. Minn offense isn’t that good. Oak should be able to outscore with all the LH bats and should be in line for the W.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week. Our goal is to help all of our members make more money playing daily fantasy sports!

Disclosures: All RotoGrinders content contributors are active DFS players. Contributor screen names can be found on their respective RotoGrinders profile pages. Contributors reserve the right to use players or strategies not discussed in their content on RotoGrinders.