MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-08-06 20:58:07

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

San Diego at Minnesota

San Diego					Minnesota
Odrisamer Despaigne		Vegas Moneyline			Kevin Correia		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIN (-120)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.243	0.721	0.325	9.50%	SP vs. Left	0.294	0.788	0.346	8.90%
SP vs. Right	0.200	0.537	0.253	15.80%	SP vs. Right	0.296	0.793	0.348	12.50%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Odrisamer Despaigne – Despaigne owns a 2.68 ERA on the season, but his 4.66 xFIP tells another story. He’s producing a 51% ground ball rate, but is striking out less than 5 batters per 9 innings which really hurts his fantasy production. He has a very limited upside today against the Twins who are ranked 12th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5700 FD, $NA DD, $5900 DK, $73500 FF, $17200 SS, $NA FTD

• Kevin Correia – Correia has a 4.96 ERA (4.89 xFIP) while averaging only 4.2 strikeouts per 9 innings. Correia walks a bunch of batters and he’s given up a .346+ wOBA to both LH and RH hitters this season. Even against a weak Padres offense, Correia can safely be avoided in all league formats. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $ DD, $5400 DK, $40000 FF, $13000 SS, $9350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Seth Smith – As mentioned above, Correia has given up a high wOBA to both LH and RH hitters this season. Smith meanwhile has been crushing RH pitching to a tune of a .389 wOBA. Don’t be afraid to use a few Padres in your lineup during the early slate.

Additional Plays: Tommy Medica, Jedd Gyorko

Minnesota

Kennys Vargas – Vargas hit his first HR of the season and has at least 1 hit in every game in his young career. He’s batting clean-up today against Despaigne and is an extremely cheap source of power. His price is still near minimum salary on both FD and DK.

Additional Plays: Danny Santana, Trevor Plouffe

Texas at Chicago White Sox

Texas					Chicago White Sox
Nick Tepesch		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Sale		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		CWS (-250)			LEFT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.773	0.340	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.125	0.317	0.153	39.40%
SP vs. Right	0.283	0.866	0.378	16.2%	SP vs. Right	0.219	0.583	0.262	26.00%
Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CHW vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nick Tepesch – Tepesch owns a 5.75 ERA on the road this season and doesn’t have a high enough K-rate to make up for the few runs that he’ll likely give up today against the White Sox. Tepesch is a fly ball pitcher which could really come back to bite him today against the White Sox who have some powerful bats in their lineup. When you factor in a likely loss with Chris Sale pitching opposite him, you can easily avoid Tepesch today. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $NA DD, $4700 DK, $40000 FF, $13000 SS, $9050 FTD

• Chris Sale – Sale is the easy choice in the early slate of game. He’s coming off of a rough outing against the Twins, but should bounce back nicely against a Rangers offense that is void of power outside of Adrian Beltre. Sale owns a 2.09 ERA (2.81 xFIP) with a K/9 of 10.0 on the season. He walks very few batters and should be able to mow through this Rangers lineup. Rating = 9

Salaries: $10700 FD, $ DD, $12200 DK, $161300 FF, $32200 SS, $21950 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Even though Adrian Beltre and Alex Rios have hit LH pitching well this season, I will be avoiding both today against Sale. And I’m also going to make a bold prediction that Elvis Andrus 12 game hitting streak comes to an end today.

Chicago White Sox

Jose Abreu – Tepesch has given up a higher wOBA to RH hitters (.379) than he has to LH hitters (.340), but batters from both sides of the plate are in play here. Abreu has 24 HR’s against RH pitching and should be considered the top 1B option in the early slate.

Additional Plays: Adam Eaton, Alexei Ramirez, Conor Gillaspie

Tampa Bay at Oakland

Tampa Bay					Oakland
Jeremy Hellickson		Vegas Moneyline			Sonny Gray		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		OAK (-200)			RIGHT		7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left					SP vs. Left	0.213	0.590	0.268	22.20%
SP vs. Right					SP vs. Right	0.221	0.593	0.267	20.30%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Hellickson – Hellickson has made 3 starts this season and he’s had mixed results. He gave up 4 earned runs to the Red Sox in his last outing and draws an extremely tough matchup against a very patient, very talented A’s offense. Wait for a better matchup before rolling him out in your lineups. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5000 FD, $NA DD, $5700 DK, $59400 FF, $15000 SS, $10150 FTD

• Sonny Gray – Gray continues to pitch well this season. He owns a 2.59 ERA (3.37 xFIP) with a K/9 of 7.9. Today he faces the Rays who have really struggled to get it going offensively in this series. The Rays are pretty much out of the playoff race and it’s starting to show a bit in their play. If you are playing on a multi-pitcher site, don’t hesitate to use him with Sale. Rating = 7.5

Salaries: $9400 FD, $ DD, $9500 DK, $133600 FF, $28800 SS, $19050 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

James Loney – Loney is the one Rays bat that I may have some exposure to in the early slate. He has been terrific against RH pitching this season and is swinging a hot bat with 14 hits over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: None

Oakland

John Jaso – Over his career, Hellickson has given up a .324 wOBA to LH hitters. That bodes well for Jaso today who should be batting at the top of the order. Jaso has hit RH pitching well and has been terrific at home with a .394 wOBA.

Additional Plays: Stephen Vogt, Brandon Moss

Atlanta at Seattle

Atlanta					Seattle
Julio Teheran		Vegas Moneyline			Chris Young		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-120)			RIGHT		7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.219	0.629	0.278	19.6%	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.770	0.337	13.70%
SP vs. Right	0.223	0.604	0.270	25.6%	SP vs. Right	0.180	0.582	0.256	16.70%
Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Julio Teheran – Teheran is right there with Gray as the #2 pitcher in the early slate of game. He has been terrific all season long, but he does have some glaring road splits: 3.91 ERA compared to a 1.49 ERA at home. That’s a bit concerning, but I do like the matchup against the Mariners who are ranked 21st in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. I’m giving a slight edge to Gray over Teheran, but I certainly see the argument if you’d rather target Teheran. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9100 FD, $NA DD, $9100 DK, $118100 FF, $28500 SS, $20200 FTD

• Chris Young – Young is a pitcher that never makes it into my lineups. The biggest reason is that he doesn’t strike many batters out. He’s only averaging 5.5 K’s per 9 innings while walking an average of 2.9 batters per 9 innings. I typically like to see a better K/BB ratio, especially for a pitcher with an xFIP of 5.23. The price on Young is certainly affordable, but I’d rather spend up a bit more to take Gray as my #2 pitcher. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6800 FD, $6100 DD, $7400 DK, $77600 FF, $20100 SS, $14300 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Young has given up a .336 wOBA to LH hitters this season and we all know that Freeman is a beast against RH pitching. Freeman’s been a little cold of late, but his price has come down which makes him an even more attractive fantasy option today.

Additional Plays: Jason Heyward

Seattle

Dustin Ackley – Ackley has been swinging a hot bat with 12 hits over his last 10 games and 4 multi-hit games in that stretch. I mentioned above that Teheran has been hittable on the road so don’t overlook Ackley as a viable option in the OF.

Additional Plays: Robinson Cano

Houston at Philadelphia

Houston					Philadelphia
Brad Peacock		Vegas Moneyline			David Buchanan		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		PHI (-138)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.735	0.329	18.6%	SP vs. Left	0.244	0.649	0.293	9.40%
SP vs. Right	0.283	0.880	0.383	21.1%	SP vs. Right	0.260	0.832	0.359	19.10%
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Brad Peacock – Peacock has a decent strikeout rate, but he’s walking close to 5 batters per 9 innings. Big league teams are going to make you pay for giving up that many free passes. Even though the Phillies are one of the worst offenses in baseball against RH pitching, Peacock is a very risky option tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5300 FD, $9450 DD, $5300 DK, $NA FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• David Buchanan – Buchanan is coming off of a terrific start against the Brewers in Milwaukee. He pitched 7 strong innings and only gave up 1 earned run while striking out 5 batters. He could make a nice contrarian play for tournaments tonight as he faces the strikeout happy Astros at home. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6200 FD, $12950 DD, $6900 DK, $ FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Jose Altuve – Altuve already has 31 stolen bases against RH pitching this season. He batting .306 vs. righties with a .330 wOBA. He’s expensive, but has a favorable matchup against Buchanan who has given up a .359 wOBA to RH hitters this season.

Additional Plays: Jason Castro

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – The Phillies offense has a nice matchup tonight against Peacock. Utley has always hit RH pitching well and Peacock has been hit hard by both LH and RH hitters this season. Utley is a very safe cash game play at 2B.

Additional Plays: Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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