MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 24th Page Two
San Diego at Chicago Cubs
| San Diego | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
| Tyson Ross | Vegas Moneyline | Edwin Jackson | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | SDP (-115) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.228 | 0.631 | 0.295 | 20.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.309 | 0.843 | 0.378 | 18.6% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.225 | 0.596 | 0.272 | 26.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.264 | 0.740 | 0.330 | 18.6% |
| Batter Splits | SDP BvP  | SDP vs R | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Tyson Ross – Ross is a much better pitcher in the friendly confines of Petco Park, but he’s still a high strikeout pitcher regardless of where he is playing. He’s averaging 8.7 K’s per 9 innings and is producing a solid 58% ground ball rate. While the Cubs offense has been better of late, Ross has great strikeout potential as the Cubs strike out at a 21.9% rate against RH pitching this season. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7900 FD, $17150 DD, $9300 DK, $131700 FF, $27000 SS, $17150 FTD
- Edwin Jackson – Jackson has a 5.61 ERA on the season, but has a BABIP of .345 that likely won’t hold up over the course of the entire season. His xFIP of 3.95 is much lower than his ERA which is a good sign. Jackson always seems to give his team a chance to win and the combination of his K-rate (8.1 per 9 innings) and matchup (Padres ranked dead last against RH pitching) make him a very intriguing play tonight. Rating = 6.5
Salaries: $5900 FD, $11050 DD, $5800 DK, $41000 FF, $14200 SS, $11050 FTD
Batter Grind Down
San Diego
Seth Smith – Smith is the one Padres’ hitter that has been carrying his weight this season. He has a .398 wOBA vs. RH pitching and a favorable matchup against Jackson who has given up a .397 wOBA to LH hitters. You have to love the matchup for his price.
Additional Plays: None
Chicago Cubs
Anthony Rizzo is always in play for tournaments. He’s been red hot over the last 2 weeks and has double-dong potential. Other than Rizzo, you can safely avoid the Cubs tonight against Ross.
NY Mets at Milwaukee
| NY Mets | Milwaukee | ||||||||
| Dillon Gee | Vegas Moneyline | Matt Garza | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIL (-160) | RIGHT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.281 | 0.789 | 0.348 | 15.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.253 | 0.687 | 0.308 | 20.1% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.628 | 0.283 | 18.5% | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.663 | 0.299 | 19.0% |
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Dillon Gee – Gee is a pitcher that I love to target when he is at home. He’s struggled to find the same success on the road though. Since the start of 2013, he has an ERA over 4.00 on the road. With a mediocre K-rate and a tough matchup against the Brewers, he’s an easy pitcher to avoid tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6800 FD, $13700 DD, $8600 DK, $93100 FF, $23500 SS, $13700 FTD
- Matt Garza – Garza has really pitched well since the start of June. He’s posted a sub 3.00 ERA in that stretch and he’s getting love from the oddsmakers tonight as he is a large favorite at -160. He also has a terrific matchup against the Mets who are ranked 25th in wOBA vs. RH pitching. He’s a solid play for the price. Rating = 7
Salaries: $7400 FD, $14800 DD, $7700 DK, $75200 FF, $22100 SS, $14800 FTD
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Lucas Duda – Duda has really been playing well over the last month or so. He’s batting .288 with a .402 wOBA in the month of July and draws a nice matchup against Garza in the HR-friendly Miller Park. While I do like Garza tonight, it may not be a bad idea to hedge the pitcher by taking Duda.
Additional Plays: None
Milwaukee
Carlos Gomez – Gomez has a .384 wOBA in Miller Park this season and a .392 wOBA vs. RH pitching. He is also a dual threat as he is just as likely to hit a HR as he is to steal a base.
Additional Plays: Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy, Scooter Gennett (if in the lineup)
Cleveland at Kansas City
| Cleveland | Kansas City | ||||||||
| Corey Kluber | Vegas Moneyline | Danny Duffy | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | CLE (-120) | LEFT | 7.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 0.756 | 0.336 | 23.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.194 | 0.448 | 0.212 | 17.2% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.247 | 0.622 | 0.281 | 25.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.216 | 0.642 | 0.296 | 19.6% |
| Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KCR vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Corey Kluber – Kluber is one of the better daily fantasy pitchers in baseball. He has a terrific K-rate (9.7 per 9 innings), a low K-rate and xFIP (2.95 and 2.82), and he has the offense to back him up. Tonight he faces a powerless Royals’ offense. While the Royals do like to work the count and limit their strikeouts, Kluber shouldn’t have too much trouble tonight. He’s a great tournament play and a solid 2nd or 3rd pitching option. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $9500 FD, $18450 DD, $9000 DK, $127000 FF, $29200 SS, $18450 FTD
- Danny Duffy – Duffy is one of my favorite high-risk/high-reward plays tonight. He’s pitched well this season and is facing an Indians’ lineup that is ranked 28th in wOBA vs. LH pitching this season. The Indians’ lineup has a lot of LH hitters in it and Duffy has been dominant against lefties holding them to a .165 wOBA this season. Rating = 6
Salaries: $6500 FD, $11500 DD, $6800 DK, $76200 FF, $16900 SS, $11500 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
Yan Gomes – The last time the Indians faced a LH pitcher, they moved Gomes up into the 3 hole in the batting order. If that’s the case again tonight, give Gomes a big fantasy boost. Gomes has a .409 wOBA vs. southpaws this season.
Additional Plays: Carlos Santana
Kansas City
There aren’t any options that stand out on the Royals against Kluber.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota
| Chicago White Sox | Minnesota | ||||||||
| Hector Noesi | Vegas Moneyline | Phil Hughes | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | MIN (-150) | RIGHT | 8.5 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.268 | 0.753 | 0.336 | 17.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.328 | 20.8% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.336 | 0.919 | 0.403 | 16.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.312 | 0.804 | 0.353 | 18.3% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CHW vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Hector Noesi – Noesi continues to struggled. In 15 starts this season, he’s posted a 5.21 ERA while giving up a .340 wOBA to his opponents. While the Twins aren’t the best offense in the American League, they should be able to put some runs on the board tonight. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6300 FD, $9550 DD, $5700 DK, $NA FF, $13600 SS, $9550 FTD
- Phil Hughes – Hughes was on his way to being one of the better comeback players of 2014, but he’s hit a bump in the road. Since the start of July, he’s posted a 5.96 ERA while giving up a .343 batting average to opponents. He has a respectable K/9 of 7.6, but I like to target pitchers that are trending in the other direction. Plus, the White Sox are ranked 11th in wOBA vs. RH pitching this season. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $7100 FD, $13300 DD, $8000 DK, $91000 FF, $20900 SS, $13300 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu – Hughes is a reverse splits pitcher which should be music to Abreu’s ears. He’s actually had much better numbers against RH pitching this season which I suppose makes him a reverse splits hitter. We all know the type of power that he has and he’s facing a struggling Hughes.
Additional Plays: Alexei Ramirez
Minnesota
Brian Dozier – Noesi has been a reverse splits pitcher this season. He’s given up a .401 wOBA to RH batters. Dozier’s price is depressed across the industry and it’s a great time to buy low.
Additional Plays: Josh Willingham
Detroit at LA Angels
| Detroit | LA Angels | ||||||||
| Max Scherzer | Vegas Moneyline | Garrett Richards | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||
| RIGHT | LAA (-127) | RIGHT | 7.0 | ||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.669 | 0.296 | 25.3% | SP vs. Left | 0.238 | 0.640 | 0.292 | 20.4% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.190 | 0.550 | 0.249 | 32.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.564 | 0.264 | 20.6% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | LAA BvP | LAA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
- Max Scherzer – This game will be a battle of two of the best pitchers in the American League. Scherzer is having another Scherzer type of season with a 3.34 ERA and a K/9 of 10.3. He doesn’t give up many walks or HR’s, but he will have his hands full tonight against Trout and the Angels. There are cheaper pitchers with better matchups tonight and I think that is the best route to take. Rating = 7
Salaries: $10600 FD, $19950 DD, $11400 DK, $135200 FF, $29800 SS, $19950 FTD
- Garrett Richards – Richards has a big stage to prove that he belongs in the AL’s elite. The Tigers own one of the best offenses in baseball. Richards is sporting an impressive 2.47 ERA on the season with a K/9 of 9.1. The issue I have here is the same one that I have with Scherzer: he’s too expensive for his matchup. Rating = 7
Salaries: $8600 FD, $19700 DD, $10200 DK, $142400 FF, $30900 SS, $19700 FTD
Batter Grind Down
Detroit / L.A. Angels
With these two pitchers on the mound, it might be a night bring out the popcorn and watch a fun pitcher’s duel. I’m not very high on either offense and will be targeting more favorable matchups instead.