MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-02 18:05:07

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Milwaukee at Toronto

Milwaukee					Toronto
Wily Peralta		Vegas Moneyline			J.A. Happ		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TOR (-110)			LEFT		9.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.272	0.744	0.334	16.6%	SP vs. Left	0.282	0.784	0.350	20.3%
SP vs. Right	0.253	0.655	0.302	17.1%	SP vs. Right	0.255	0.750	0.333	18.0%
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Wily Peralta – We have a mixed slate of games today with 8 games being played early and the other 7 being late games. Let’s start with the Brewers and Blue Jays. Even though Peralta has pitched well this season with a 3.20 ERA and a K/9 of 6.7, I will be avoiding him at all costs today against the Blue Jays. The Jays are ranked 2nd in all of baseball with a team wOBA of .343 against RH pitching this season. The Rogers Centre is one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball and Peralta can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7500 FD, $14445 DS, $NA DD, $7200 DK, $108500 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• J.A. Happ – Happ is coming off of a 7+ inning shutout against the White Sox, but I’m just not sold. He has given up a .333 wOBA to RHB’s since the start of 2013 which doesn’t bode well for his matchup against the Brewers whose lineup is littered with RH hitters. Again, the Rogers Centre is not kind to pitchers. Target both of the offenses in this one. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6400 FD, $12705 DS, $ DD, $6500 DK, $71700 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Ryan Braun – If you are playing the early slate, I highly recommend getting Braun into your lineups. He has always hit LH pitching well and has 3 career HR’s off of Happ. He also has decent speed on the bases and will throw in an added stolen base every now and then.

Additional Plays: Carlos Gomez, Jonathan Lucroy, Khris Davis, Aramis Ramirez

Toronto

Melky Cabrera – While the RHB’s in this lineup are in play as well, Peralta gives up a considerably higher wOBA to LHB’s. Melky has a .355 wOBA against RH pitching this season and has 11 hits over his last 10 games.

Additional Plays: Adam Lind, Jose Reyes, Colby Rasmus

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees

Tampa Bay					NY Yankees
Jake Odorizzi		Vegas Moneyline			Vidal Nuno		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-105)			LEFT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.275	0.760	0.336	24.6%	SP vs. Left	0.270	0.791	0.352	20.0%
SP vs. Right	0.227	0.665	0.300	23.2%	SP vs. Right	0.275	0.797	0.345	14.7%
Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs L		Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is a high strikeout pitcher that is facing a Yankees’ offense that has been slumping all season long. While the total is set at 9.0 runs, don’t rule out Odorizzi as a GPP play. He is coming off of his best month of the season in June as he posted a 2.40 ERA with 34 K’s over 30 innings of work. Odorizzi has had his struggles on the road, but makes a nice upside play today. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6900 FD, $15336 DS, $14500 DD, $8000 DK, $94700 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Vidal Nuno – I’ve been avoiding Nuno all season long and that will continue today, even against the Rays who have struggled against LH pitching. Nuno is sporting a 5.42 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP on the season. The combination of Longoria, Zobrist, and Jennings should make it tough on Nuno. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5400 FD, $9254 DS, $10900 DD, $6000 DK, $49900 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Evan Longoria – If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for a good amount of time, then you know that most of Longo’s power comes against LH pitching. Longo has a .396 wOBA against LH pitching this season which is a full 100 points higher than his wOBA against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings

NY Yankees

Mark Teixeira – If you are targeting any batters in this lineup, target the ones that can hit from the left side of the plate as Odorizzi has given up a .336 wOBA to LHB’s since the start of 2013. Teix has been slowly heating up of late and does have a HR off of Odorizzi in the past.

Additional Plays: Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner

Oakland at Detroit

Oakland					Detroit
Jesse Chavez		Vegas Moneyline			Justin Verlander		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-125)			RIGHT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.269	0.677	0.314	18.7%	SP vs. Left	0.242	0.668	0.301	21.5%
SP vs. Right	0.202	0.575	0.258	26.5%	SP vs. Right	0.294	0.786	0.347	20.4%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jesse Chavez – Chavez continues to post quality outings, but his K’s are way down from where they were earlier in the season. That really hurts his fantasy value as he can’t overcome a couple of earned runs by posting double-digit K’s. Chavez hasn’t struck out more than 5 batters in any of his last 7 starts. That combined with a tough matchup against the Tigers is more than enough for me to avoid him today. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7500 FD, $15358 DS, $13950 DD, $8200 DK, $97100 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Justin Verlander – Don’t look now, but Verlander has posted back to back quality fantasy starts. He still gave up a combined 5 earned runs over his last 2, but had 16 strikeouts over that stretch and only gave up a combined 11 hits. His velocity is higher than it’s been all season and this is the time to start buying your shares. He should have run support at his back and I’m willing to roll the dice once again with Verlander. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $7500 FD, $14254 DS, $13300 DD, $7100 DK, $58700 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Coco Crisp – Verlander has really pitched well against this A’s lineup in the past, but the one hitter that has had some success off of him is Crisp. Crisp is 8/24 off of Verlander in his career and owns a .366 wOBA against RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Brandon Moss

Detroit

J.D. Martinez – Just when you think he is finally going to cool off, he hits another HR in the Tigers win last night. The guy is just on fire right now. Over his last 10 games he has 13 hits, 7 of which went for extra bases. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera

Kansas City at Minnesota

Kansas City					Minnesota
Jason Vargas		Vegas Moneyline			Kevin Correia		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		KCR (-125)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.304	0.741	0.331	15.2%	SP vs. Left	0.297	0.801	0.351	12.3%
SP vs. Right	0.253	0.718	0.324	17.6%	SP vs. Right	0.305	0.794	0.348	12.6%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jason Vargas – Vargas has been terrific on the road this season, which is a bit surprising considering the fact that Kauffman Stadium is generally thought of as a pitcher’s park. In 7 road starts, Vargas has a 1.75 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. The Twins’ offense is right around the league average in wOBA against LH pitching. While I don’t hate the play, I typically like to target pitchers with a little more upside. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6300 FD, $13885 DS, $12100 DD, $7500 DK, $87500 FF, $NA SS, $NA FTD

• Kevin Correia – Correia takes the mound again tonight and once again, I will recommend avoiding him. His K-rate per 9 innings is lower than his ERA. To further complicate matters, he is facing a Royals’ offense that strikes out fewer times than any team in baseball. I don’t see Correia striking out more than a couple of batters at most. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5400 FD, $7854 DS, $9350 DD, $5800 DK, $52200 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Alex Gordon – The Royals are actually in a pretty nice spot today. They can be a tough team to target because they don’t have a ton of power in their lineup, but they should be able to put some runs up on the board as Correia has given up a .345+ wOBA to both LHB’s and RHB’s since the start of 2013.

Additional Plays: Salvador Perez, Eric Hosmer

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – I mention this often, I love targeting players that can score fantasy points in multiple ways. Dozier can do just that as he has 15 HR’s and 15 stolen bases on the season. He has also been very good against LH pitching with a .396 wOBA.

Additional Plays: Josh Willingham

Seattle at Houston

Seattle					Houston
Chris Young		Vegas Moneyline			Brad Peacock		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		SEA (-102)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.656	0.297	13.9%	SP vs. Left	0.269	0.810	0.362	18.4%
SP vs. Right	0.224	0.718	0.315	10.5%	SP vs. Right	0.214	0.682	0.304	24.2%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs R		Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Chris Young – Young is a very tall, very lanky, pitcher that can create some unique angles for opposing hitters. He’s pitched very well at times this season, but doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. The way to beat this Astros’ young offense is to take advantage of their aggressiveness by getting them in pitcher’s counts and racking up the strikeouts. I just don’t see Young being able to do that today. I’ll actually be targeting a couple of Astros’ bats against him. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5900 FD, $13995 DS, $12800 DD, $6300 DK, $89400 FF, $5000 SS, $7150 FTD

• Brad Peacock – Peacock will be making his 12th start of the season today. So far he has posted a 4.21 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP and a K/9 of 7.9. Peacock has always had decent stuff and the ability to rack up strikeouts, but he’s never really been able to put it all together. He’s facing a Mariners’ offense that has been red hot in this series. He’s a risky GPP option at best. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5800 FD, $11763 DS, $10600 DD, $6400 DK, $67500 FF, $ SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Robinson Cano – Over his last 3 games Cano has racked up 6 hits (2 HR’s) and 8 RBI’s. The Mariners are finally starting to hit which should provide Cano with more RBI opportunities. He has a terrific matchup against Peacock who has given up a .362 wOBA to LH batters over the last 2 seasons.

Additional Plays: Kyle Seager, Michael Saunders

Houston

Jose Altuve – I read that Altuve only had 18 swinging strikes in the entire month of June. That’s incredible. Some players have that many swinging strikes in only a few games. He is locked in right now and leads the AL in both hits and stolen bases.

Additional Plays: George Springer

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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