MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, July 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-07-09 19:42:43

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

LA Dodgers at Detroit

LA Dodgers					Detroit
Zack Greinke		Vegas Moneyline			Max Scherzer		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-125)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.696	0.313	20.6%	SP vs. Left	0.236	0.681	0.301	25.2%
SP vs. Right	0.225	0.597	0.272	24.3%	SP vs. Right	0.187	0.540	0.246	32.4%
Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LAD vs R		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Zack Greinke – What’s up Grinders, we have a split schedule on Wednesday with 4 early games and 11 late games. The first game of the day features two of the best pitchers in baseball. Greinke is coming off of a terrific start in Coors Field against the Rockies. On the season he has posted a 2.66 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and a K/9 of 9.6. While his numbers look great, that’s only half of the equation. While the Tigers typically present a tough matchup, they will be without both Victor Martinez and Miguel Cabrera which helps Greinke’s cause. Rating = 7

Salaries: $9900 FD, $19978 DS, $18350 DD, $9600 DK, $116200 FF, $28700 SS, $18350 FTD

• Max Scherzer – Scherzer is in the same boat as Greinke. While he should pitch well, I’m not sure that I will be paying up for him as he faces a Dodgers offense that is ranked 4th in wOBA against RH pitching. If you watched last night’s game between these two teams, then you know that they can put up runs in a hurry. Scherzer has struck out 28 batters while only giving up a combined 4 earned runs over his last 3 starts, but is over-priced considering his bad matchup. Rating = 6

Salaries: $10500 FD, $22814 DS, $19350 DD, $10900 DK, $111500 FF, $30900 SS, $19350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Dee Gordon – It’s slim pickens on the Dodgers today, but I do think Gordon is in play. Scherzer has not been great at keeping runners at first as he has already given up 10 SB’s on the season. Gordon already has 42 SB’s this season and will be aggressive on the base pads today.

Additional Plays: Adrian Gonzalez

Detroit

This is a much different lineup with V-Mart and Miggy out. J.D. Martinez has been swinging a hot bat, but he’s better suited as a GPP play. The Greinke side of this matchup looks like the best route to take.

San Diego at Colorado

San Diego					Colorado
Eric Stults		Vegas Moneyline			Jair Jurrjens		Vegas Over/Under
LEFT		SDP (-105)			RIGHT		11.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.234	0.631	0.281	14.3%	SP vs. Left	0.294	1.039	0.438	16.7%
SP vs. Right	0.305	0.807	0.354	14.4%	SP vs. Right	0.308	0.846	0.362	23.1%
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SDP vs R		Batter Splits	COL BvP		COL vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Eric Stults – The Padres pitching staff has held the Rockies to a combined 3 earned runs in the first 2 games of the series, but you can expect their bats to stay dormant for much longer, especially with Stults on the mound. Stults has struggled all season with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. The Rockies offense should get it going today; avoid Stults in all leagues. Rating = 2

Salaries: $5600 FD, $8387 DS, $9050 DD, $6200 DK, $54600 FF, $13400 SS, $9050 FTD

• Jair Jurrjens – The one thing that Jurrjens has going for him today is that he is facing the worst offense in baseball. That’s about it though. Jurrjens gave up 8 earned runs in his first start of the season and Vegas expects a high scoring game today as the total is set at 11.0 runs. Rating = 2

Salaries: $4200 FD, $12345 DS, $ DD, $4800 DK, $67000 FF, $13000 SS, $ FTD

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Seth Smith – Smith has been out of the lineup for the first 2 games of this series, but should be in the lineup today against the RHP Jurrjens. Smith has cooled off since the beginning of the season, but still owns a .387 wOBA against RH pitching.

Additional Plays: Chase Headley, Carlos Quentin, Will Venable

Colorado

Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo has the top wOBA matchup on the board today. Stults is giving up a .370 wOBA to RH hitters this season while Tulo is sporting a .529 wOBA against southpaws. Tulo has also been terrific at home and is head and shoulders above the other options at SS.

Additional Plays: Drew Stubbs, Wilin Rosario, Nolan Arenado

Toronto at LA Angels

Toronto					LA Angels
Marcus Stroman		Vegas Moneyline			C.J. Wilson		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		LAA (-155)			LEFT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.348	0.949	0.417	11.1%	SP vs. Left	0.176	0.489	0.234	27.9%
SP vs. Right	0.283	0.696	0.306	26.3%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.711	0.324	19.4%
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs L		Batter Splits	LAA BvP		LAA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Marcus Stroman – Stroman has proven that he can pitch at the major league level. In his first 7 career starts, he has posted a 3.44 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 43 strikeouts over 48 innings of work. R.A. Dickey managed to quiet the Angels’ offense last night, but as a team the Angels are still ranked 9th in wOBA against RH pitching. Stroman may be worth a look as a contrarian GPP play, but there are better options for cash games. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6600 FD, $14599 DS, $13050 DD, $7300 DK, $92600 FF, $20700 SS, $13050 FTD

• C.J. Wilson – Wilson’s price has dropped dramatically across the industry. If you look at his salaries below, he’s basically a mid-tier pitching option in terms of salary. While he has given up 14 earned runs over his last 3 starts, I’m going to be buying low on Wilson today. In fact, I’ll be buying as many shares of Wilson at his discounted price as I can find. He’s a sizable favorite and is facing a Blue Jays’ offense that has struggled on the road this season. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7400 FD, $15444 DS, $14350 DD, $7900 DK, $72500 FF, $21500 SS, $14350 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Jose Bautista – If you don’t believe in Wilson or even just want to hedge your Wilson pick, Bautista is a nice play today. He has a .500 wOBA against LH pitching this season and he’s hit Wilson well in the past going 8/18 with 2 XBH’s.

Additional Plays: None

LA Angels

Kole Calhoun – The sample size is fairly small (only 7 starts), but Stroman has given up a .417 wOBA to LH hitters. Calhoun meanwhile has been terrific against RH pitching with a .303 batting average and a .393 wOBA. He’s a nice source of power for a lead-off man.

Additional Plays: Josh Hamilton

Miami at Arizona

Miami					Arizona
Nathan Eovaldi		Vegas Moneyline			Josh Collmenter		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ARI (-125)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.748	0.339	15.9%	SP vs. Left	0.278	0.711	0.328	17.7%
SP vs. Right	0.238	0.638	0.285	20.2%	SP vs. Right	0.215	0.644	0.290	19.4%
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi is trending in the wrong direction. In his last 5 starts, he’s given up a combined 19 earned runs while only striking out 12 batters. He’s facing a Diamondbacks team that is ranked 13th in wOBA against RH pitching and he’s facing them in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6300 FD, $13377 DS, $13100 DD, $6300 DK, $67500 FF, $17100 SS, $13100 FTD

• Josh Collmenter – Collmenter has a low K-rate (5.4 per 9 innings) and average peripheral stats. While the Marlins do strike out a ton on the road, they are above average against RH pitching and can put up runs quickly with Stanton in the lineup. If you are playing the early slate, I think C.J. Wilson is the obvious choice on single pitcher sites. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6700 FD, $13433 DS, $10850 DD, $6100 DK, $85000 FF, $14400 SS, $10850 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Garrett Jones – Jones should be in the lineup today against the RHP Collmenter. Jones is sporting a .354 wOBA against RH pitching this season. Jones has great pop against righties as 27 of his 66 hits have gone for extra bases.

Additional Plays: Giancarlo Stanton, Casey McGehee

Arizona

Miguel Montero – Eovaldi has been vulnerable to LH hitters throughout his career, so if you are targeting any D-Backs other than Goldschmidt, target the batters from the left side of the plate. Montero has 11 hits over his last 10 games and a .379 wOBA against RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Didi Gregorious, Ender Inciarte

Washington at Baltimore

Baltimore					Washington
Bud Norris		Vegas Moneyline			Doug Fister		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BAL (-115)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.293	0.825	0.366	15.6%	SP vs. Left	0.269	0.692	0.312	18.4%
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.628	0.292	21.7%	SP vs. Right	0.286	0.695	0.318	16.8%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	WSN BvP		WSN vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Doug Fister – These two pitchers were scheduled to start last night’s game, but it was rained out so they will take the mound tonight instead. The only difference is that this game will be played in Camden Yards instead of Nationals Park. Fister is off to a nice start this season with the Nationals. Through 11 starts, he’s posted 2.93 ERA with a K/9 of 5.4. That said, he draws an extremely tough matchup against the Orioles in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. The Orioles are ranked 9th overall in wOBA against RH pitching. I won’t be paying up for Fister in this less than favorable matchup. Rating = 5

• Bud Norris – Norris has been sidelined for the last 3 weeks with a groin strain, but will be on the mound tonight for the Orioles. That kind of injury isn’t likely to limit his pitch count, but he’s a pretty average fantasy option tonight. On the season, Norris owns a 3.62 ERA with a K/9 of 6.2. While Norris has pitched pretty well at home, I don’t like the matchup against a loaded Nationals offense. Rating = 5

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Adam LaRoche – Norris has always struggled vs. LH hitters. Since the start of 2013, Norris has given up a .366 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate. Meanwhile, LaRoche has a .405 wOBA against RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Bryce Harper

Baltimore

Nelson Cruz – Cruz is locked in right now. If you try to pitch him outside, he’ll take it the other way and if you try to pitch him inside, he’ll pull the ball. He hit his 28th HR of the season off of Strasburg last night and makes a great upside play in all leagues tonight against Fister who has given up 9 HR’s in 11 starts.

Additional Plays: Manny Machado, Chris Davis

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2

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