MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, June 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-06-18 18:21:58

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s MLB Scoring System,check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Philadelphia at Atlanta

Philadelphia					Atlanta
Roberto Hernandez		Vegas Moneyline			Aaron Harang		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		ATL (-154)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.281	0.830	0.375	14.8%	SP vs. Left	0.261	0.778	0.344	16.7%
SP vs. Right	0.264	0.698	0.323	20.4%	SP vs. Right	0.258	0.705	0.315	22.5%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	ATL BvP		ATL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Roberto Hernandez – Hernandez takes the mound today with a 4.39 ERA and a K/9 of 7.1. While those numbers aren’t terrible, he hasn’t been very effective against RHB’s as he has given up a .357 wOBA to them. Today he faces a Braves’ offense that has a lot of power, but has really struggled against LH pitching this season. He could make a decent tournament play, but I’ll likely be avoiding him in all leagues. Rating = 4

Salaries: $5200 FD, $NA DS, $NA DD, $5400 DK, $50100 FF, $13300 SS, $9800 FTD

• Aaron Harang – Harang has actually really pitched well this season. He has an ERA of 3.20 and an xFIP under 4.00. Harang has also shown nice upside with a K/9 of 8.5. Today he faces the Phillies who I love to pick on. They are ranked 27th against RH pitching with a team .290 wOBA. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $6600 FD, $ DS, $ DD, $7600 DK, $82600 FF, $20700 SS, $13700 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Chase Utley – Utley got the night off yesterday, but should be back in the lineup today. He has been crushing RH pitching all season long with a .377 wOBA. He also has a nice track record vs. Utley as he is 10/22 with 5 XBH’s against him.

Additional Plays: Ryan Howard

Atlanta

Freddie Freeman – Even though Hernandez has given up a higher wOBA to RHB’s than he has to LHB’s, he has struggled with lefties throughout his career and Freeman should be in for a nice outing. He has a .361 wOBA against RH pitching this season.

Additional Plays: Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Chris Johnson

Chicago Cubs at Miami

Chicago Cubs					Miami
Jake Arrieta		Vegas Moneyline			Nathan Eovaldi		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		MIA (-123)			RIGHT		7.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.210	0.633	0.290	20.2%	SP vs. Left	0.279	0.744	0.338	16.3%
SP vs. Right	0.249	0.689	0.318	21.1%	SP vs. Right	0.235	0.628	0.281	20.4%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jake Arrieta – Arrieta has been terrific for the Cubs with a 2.09 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a K/9 of 9.1. He has been flying under the fantasy radar, but could be a nice play today against the Marlins in the very spacious Marlins Park. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5800 FD, $15209 DS, $NA DD, $7600 DK, $82600 FF, $22200 SS, $13900 FTD

• Nathan Eovaldi – Eovaldi has been terrific this season with the exception of two starts; one of which was his last outing against the Pirates. He still has a nice K-rate though and he draws a terrific matchup against the Cubs who are ranked 29th against RH pitching. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6800 FD, $16305 DS, $ DD, $ DK, $82600 FF, $22500 SS, $14000 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo – Rizzo had an off game last night, but should bounce back nicely tonight. He is facing the RHP Eovaldi who has given up a .357 wOBA to LHB’s this season. Rizzo has always hit RH pitching well and makes a nice play at 1B if the price is right.

Additional Plays: Starlin Castro

Miami

Giancarlo Stanton – The Cubs’ pitching staff managed to keep him in check last night, but that’s a tough thing to do 3 nights in a row. Stanton has a .391 wOBA against RH pitching this season and a .432 wOBA at home.

Additional Plays: Garrett Jones

Kansas City at Detroit

Kansas City					Detroit
Jeremy Guthrie		Vegas Moneyline			Drew Smyly		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		DET (-140)			LEFT		9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.310	0.859	0.378	11.6%	SP vs. Left	0.172	0.456	0.204	26.5%
SP vs. Right	0.232	0.609	0.280	13.7%	SP vs. Right	0.267	0.778	0.343	22.2%
Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KCR vs L		Batter Splits	DET BvP		DET vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Jeremy Guthrie – Guthrie is a tough sell when it comes to daily fantasy sports. His ERA (4.04) and WHIP (1.26) are both pretty average and he has only struck out 50 batters in 91 innings of work. He has a tough matchup against the Tigers who are ranked 5th against RH pitching this season. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5300 FD, $8754 DS, $10150 DD, $7200 DK, $70900 FF, $16100 SS, $10150 FTD

• Drew Smyly – Smyly is hoping to have more success than Verlander and Scherzer have thus far against the Royals in this series. The Royals’ offense is clicking on all cylinders right now with double-digit run efforts in back to back games. That does concern me a bit. The fact that they strike out less than any team in baseball is also concerning. I see Smyly as a pretty average option today. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6500 FD, $12660 DS, $11400 DD, $5900 DK, $58600 FF, $14600 SS, $11400 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Billy Butler – Now is the time to buy low on Butler. He has been red hot over his last 7 games with 12 hits (3 went for extra bases). He has a nice matchup against the LHP Smyly tonight.

Additional Plays: Lorenzo Cain

Detroit

Victor Martinez – Guthrie has struggled against LHB’s throughout his career and this season is no different. He has given up a .347 wOBA to batters from the left side of the plate and V-Mart should be able to take advantage as he is a switch hitter that hits well from both sides.

Additional Plays: Miguel Cabrera, Alex Avila

Baltimore at Tampa Bay

Baltimore					Tampa Bay
Kevin Gausman		Vegas Moneyline			Alex Cobb		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		TBR (-145)			RIGHT		7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.258	0.758	0.335	20.6%	SP vs. Left	0.225	0.644	0.288	23.9%
SP vs. Right	0.277	0.726	0.324	23.8%	SP vs. Right	0.238	0.638	0.294	22.1%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	TBR BvP		TBR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kevin Gausman – Gausman has pitched well in each of his last 2 starts. He is a high strikeout pitcher that has a lot of upside if he can manage to keep the earned runs down. He is facing a Rays’ offense that is ranked 18th against RH pitching this season. For the price, I like him as a tournament play on multi-pitcher sites. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5700 FD, $11660 DS, $11600 DD, $6200 DK, $69100 FF, $17000 SS, $11000 FTD

• Alex Cobb – Cobb finally had the outing that we have all been waiting for. He struck out 11 batters while only giving up one earned run the other night against the Astros. When Cobb is locked in, he is one of the better pitchers in daily fantasy baseball thanks to his ability to post double-digit K’s. Rating = 7

Salaries: $7500 FD, $15700 DS, $13600 DD, $8400 DK, $97400 FF, $22800 SS, $14550 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Adam Jones – Even though Cobb is a RHP, he has given up a much higher wOBA to RHB’s than he has to LHB’s this season. Jones has already hit a couple of HR’s in Tropicana this season and makes a nice play in the OF.

Additional Plays: Nelson Cruz

Tampa Bay

Desmond Jennings – The sample size is small, but Gausman has given up a .324 wOBA to RHB’s in his career. Jennings homered last night and is cheap across the industry if you are looking for a value play in the OF.

Additional Plays: Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist

Minnesota at Boston

Minnesota					Boston
Kyle Gibson		Vegas Moneyline			John Lackey		Vegas Over/Under
RIGHT		BOS (-165)			RIGHT		8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.307	0.780	0.350	8.3%	SP vs. Left	0.242	0.663	0.293	20.7%
SP vs. Right	0.240	0.663	0.301	16.9%	SP vs. Right	0.265	0.733	0.323	20.7%
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs R		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

• Kyle Gibson – Gibson has really struggled on the road this season. In 7 road starts he has a 5.91 ERA with only 16 K’s over 35 innings of work. He is a huge underdog against the Red Sox and can safely be avoided in all leagues. Rating = 3

Salaries: $5000 FD, $10555 DS, $11100 DD, $7000 DK, $69800 FF, $17100 SS, $11100 FTD

• John Lackey – Lackey has pitched well in 4 of his last 5 outings and has a K/9 of 7.8 on the season. He does draw a decent matchup against the Twins who are ranked 13th against RH pitching this season with a team .319 wOBA. He may be in line for the win, but will likely give up a couple of runs in the process. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8400 FD, $17402 DS, $15200 DD, $9300 DK, $117900 FF, $24500 SS, $15200 FTD

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Brian Dozier – Dozier has a pretty decent matchup against Lackey. Dozier offers great speed (15 SB’s) and nice power (15 HR’s). He makes a nice upside play in GPP’s.

Additional Plays: Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham

Boston

Brock Holt – Holt has been swinging a hot bat of late with 16 hits over his last 10 games. Holt has a .342 wOBA against RH pitching this season and is a terrific value option at 3B in the morning slate of games.

Additional Plays: David Ortiz

MLB Grind Down Page 1 – Page 2