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MLB Heat Check: July 23rd, 2013

by Ethan Haskell (Ethan) Last Updated 2013-07-24 00:07:07

Whether you’re looking for a guy that’s due or you put your faith in players hitting the ball well, recent performance is a crucial factor in daily fantasy baseball. But it’s not just about finding which players are putting up the biggest numbers, because in DFS it comes down to value. In this article I’ll look at which players are over/under performing their season averages by the greatest margin in recent days.

hot hittahs

For the purpose of this article, we’ll define hot and cold streaks by players recent averages (last SEVEN days) vs. their season averages. We’re far enough into the season that, for the most part, we have a decent feel for where players lie. The four key stats looked at in terms of differentials will be:

1) Batting Average
2) Slugging Percentage
3) OPS (On Base + Slugging)
4) Fantasy Points Per Game (based on FD scoring)

Also, to qualify, hitters must have at least 50 plate appearances on the season and 10 plate appearances over the past seven days.

Shown below are the hitters with the largest fantasy point per game differentials between their last 7 days performance and their season averages, along with the percentage increase or decrease for each stat.

HOTTEST HITTERS

Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen HOTTEST HITTER #1
andrew-mccutchen-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.307 AVG 0.412 AVG 0.105 AVG 34.2%
SLG 0.504 SLG 1.176 SLG 0.672 SLG 133.4%
OPS 0.871 OPS 1.621 OPS 0.750 OPS 86.1%
FPPG 3.35 FPPG 7.63 FPPG 4.28 FPPG 127.9%

Chase Utley

Chase Utley HOTTEST HITTER #2
chase-utley-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.279 AVG 0.417 AVG 0.138 AVG 49.5%
SLG 0.519 SLG 1.083 SLG 0.564 SLG 108.7%
OPS 0.847 OPS 1.440 OPS 0.593 OPS 70.0%
FPPG 2.93 FPPG 6.75 FPPG 3.83 FPPG 130.8%

Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth HOTTEST HITTER #3
jayson-werth-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.300 AVG 0.333 AVG 0.033 AVG 11.0%
SLG 0.506 SLG 1.133 SLG 0.627 SLG 123.9%
OPS 0.868 OPS 1.545 OPS 0.677 OPS 78.0%
FPPG 2.86 FPPG 6.63 FPPG 3.76 FPPG 131.3%

Mike Zunino

Mike Zunino HOTTEST HITTER #4
mike-zunino-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.234 AVG 0.286 AVG 0.052 AVG 22.2%
SLG 0.340 SLG 0.857 SLG 0.517 SLG 151.8%
OPS 0.626 OPS 1.403 OPS 0.777 OPS 124.1%
FPPG 1.56 FPPG 4.92 FPPG 3.36 FPPG 216.1%

Juan Lagares

Juan Lagares HOTTEST HITTER #5
juan-lagares-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.261 AVG 0.583 AVG 0.322 AVG 123.4%
SLG 0.392 SLG 1.000 SLG 0.608 SLG 155.0%
OPS 0.669 OPS 1.583 OPS 0.914 OPS 136.6%
FPPG 1.16 FPPG 4.44 FPPG 3.28 FPPG 283.8%

HONORABLE MENTION – HOTTEST

HOT PLAYER Seas FPPG L7 FPPG FPPG-Diff
6 Hanley Ramirez 3.93 7.13 3.19
7 Alex Rios 2.80 5.94 3.13
8 Brandon Barnes 1.57 4.69 3.11
9 Matt Wieters 2.12 4.94 2.82
10 A.J. Ellis 2.06 4.83 2.78
11 Marlon Byrd 2.64 5.38 2.74
12 Kelly Johnson 2.47 5.08 2.61
13 Mike Napoli 2.73 5.33 2.60
14 Chris Heisey 1.64 4.08 2.45
15 Devin Mesoraco 1.70 4.06 2.36
16 Jonny Gomes 1.78 4.13 2.35
17 Nate McLouth 2.68 5.00 2.32
18 Luis Valbuena 1.97 4.25 2.28
19 Garrett Jones 1.80 4.06 2.27
20 Andre Ethier 1.85 4.00 2.15
21 Michael Young 2.01 4.00 1.99
22 Dustin Ackley 1.15 3.06 1.91
23 Chris Young 2.20 4.00 1.80
24 Michael Saunders 2.15 3.94 1.79
25 Jonathan Lucroy 2.37 4.13 1.75

COLDEST HITTERS

Yasiel Puig

Yasiel Puig COLDEST HITTER #1
yasiel-puig-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.364 AVG 0.071 AVG -0.293 AVG -80.5%
SLG 0.570 SLG 0.071 SLG -0.498 SLG -87.5%
OPS 0.950 OPS 0.138 OPS -0.812 OPS -85.5%
FPPG 3.16 FPPG -0.31 FPPG -3.47 FPPG -109.9%

Pedro Alvarez

Pedro Alvarez COLDEST HITTER #2
pedro-alvarez-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.240 AVG 0.059 AVG -0.181 AVG -75.4%
SLG 0.492 SLG 0.059 SLG -0.433 SLG -88.0%
OPS 0.789 OPS 0.118 OPS -0.671 OPS -85.0%
FPPG 2.56 FPPG -0.50 FPPG -3.06 FPPG -119.5%

Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia COLDEST HITTER #3
dustin-pedroia-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.308 AVG 0.118 AVG -0.190 AVG -61.7%
SLG 0.422 SLG 0.118 SLG -0.305 SLG -72.1%
OPS 0.805 OPS 0.235 OPS -0.570 OPS -70.8%
FPPG 2.90 FPPG 0.06 FPPG -2.84 FPPG -97.8%

Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Jarrod Saltalamacchia COLDEST HITTER #4
jarrod-saltalamacchia-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.257 AVG 0.083 AVG -0.174 AVG -67.7%
SLG 0.437 SLG 0.083 SLG -0.353 SLG -80.9%
OPS 0.768 OPS 0.167 OPS -0.601 OPS -78.3%
FPPG 2.24 FPPG -0.58 FPPG -2.82 FPPG -126.1%

Asdrubal Cabrera

Asdrubal Cabrera COLDEST HITTER #5
asdrubal-cabrera-100x75 Season Last 7 Days Difference Percent Change
AVG 0.244 AVG 0.063 AVG -0.181 AVG -74.2%
SLG 0.401 SLG 0.063 SLG -0.338 SLG -84.4%
OPS 0.688 OPS 0.121 OPS -0.567 OPS -82.4%
FPPG 2.24 FPPG -0.44 FPPG -2.67 FPPG -119.6%

HONORABLE MENTIONS – COLDEST

COLD PLAYER Seas FPPG L7 FPPG FPPG-Diff
6 Josh Donaldson 2.85 0.19 -2.66
7 Anthony Rendon 2.04 -0.44 -2.47
8 Adam Dunn 2.62 0.17 -2.45
9 Seth Smith 1.87 -0.56 -2.44
10 Travis Hafner 1.96 -0.42 -2.38
11 Justin Ruggiano 1.96 -0.31 -2.27
12 Jedd Gyorko 2.17 -0.06 -2.23
13 Mark Trumbo 2.61 0.38 -2.23
14 Derek Dietrich 1.98 -0.25 -2.23
15 Jed Lowrie 2.16 0.06 -2.10
16 Miguel Cabrera 4.43 2.38 -2.06
17 Logan Morrison 2.45 0.50 -1.95
18 Alcides Escobar 1.67 -0.25 -1.92
19 Aaron Hill 2.35 0.44 -1.92
20 Austin Jackson 2.76 0.88 -1.89
21 Ryan Zimmerman 2.63 0.75 -1.88
22 Mitch Moreland 2.05 0.19 -1.86
23 Marcell Ozuna 2.04 0.19 -1.85
24 Leonys Martin 1.91 0.06 -1.84
25 Jose Iglesias 2.01 0.25 -1.76

About the Author

Ethan
Ethan Haskell (Ethan)