MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Today — Friday, July 23rd, 2021
Betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down MLB odds, picks, and predictions for today. If you don’t yet have an account at BetMGM Sportsbook, take advantage of our MLB special offer!
On Friday, July 23rd, all 30 MLB teams are in action, meaning that there are plenty of opportunities to earn some profit with MLB bets today. The slate begins with the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs at 2:20 PM ET, but the rest of the games will take place at later tonight.
Let’s take a look at some of the top plays across the league this evening.
MLB picks for Friday, July 23rd
Padres ML (-156)
Bettors are receiving somewhat of a discount on the San Diego Padres tonight. The market is likely reacting to the fact that Joe Musgrove has struggled to a 4.64 ERA and a 4.52 FIP over his last eight starts, but a closer look at his game log indicates that he has been just fine against weaker lineups. In his last four starts against struggling offenses, he owns a 0.86 ERA across 21.0 innings of work. The Marlins rank 27th in OPS and 26th in ISO during the month of July. They have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching for the entire season—ranking 28th in both OPS and ISO. Expect Miami to have very few run-scoring opportunities this evening. Musgrove will be opposed by Zach Thompson, who has pitched well since being promoted to the big-leagues in June, but he has a difficult matchup against a strong San Diego lineup tonight in what is likely to be the toughest test of his young career. Over the last 14 days, the Padres offense ranks ninth in OPS, third in walk-rate, and is only striking-out 20.1 percent of the time. Back the Padres here as they look to improve to 5-2 since the All-Star break.
Braves vs. Phillies o7.5 runs (-110)
In 2021, “(player-popup #max-fried)Max Fried”:/players/max-fried-36168’s season-long numbers are marred by an ugly April, during which he appeared to be pitching through an injury. In his 12 starts since returning from the injured list, he owns a 3.15 ERA and a 3.41 FIP. Tonight, he will face a Phillies lineup that ranks 13th in OPS and 19th in ISO against left-handed pitching. Zack Wheeler has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball through his first 19 starts—posting a 2.44 ERA, 2.50 xERA, and a 2.34 FIP. He draws a semi-favorable matchup in this one against a Braves lineup that ranks 14th in OPS and 11th in ISO over the last 14 days. While the starting pitching in this game certainly appears to favor the under, the bullpen for each of these clubs could present problems in the late-innings. A bad day from a single relief pitcher has the potential to kill the under when the market price is this low. Atlanta and Philadelphia have had two of the most unreliable relief units in all of baseball this season. Fade the bullpens here and take the over.
Rays ML (-124)
Zach Plesac’s) reputation from a strong 2020 campaign and a good start to the 2021 season has inappropriately influenced the market to make this game a near pick’em at sportsbooks. Since returning from the injured list, he owns a 4.50 ERA and a 6.26 FIP, but his struggles began even before he hurt his thumb while ‘aggressively’ taking off his shirt. Over his last five starts, he has posted a dreadful 4.71 ERA and a 6.55 FIP. The Tampa Bay Rays offense has ranked near the top-10 in nearly every meaningful offensive metric against right-handed pitching since Opening Day. Plesac could have another poor showing this evening. His counterpart, Josh Fleming, is far from elite and was tagged for seven earned runs in his last outing. However, in 28.1 innings of work prior to that blow-up, he posted a 3.81 ERA and a 3.27 FIP. Cleveland’s lineup has been one of the worst in baseball against left-handed pitching in 2021, notably, being no-hit by Carlos Rodon and Wade Miley. On top of all of the aforementioned information, Cleveland also enters this game having used all four of their top relief options in consecutive days. It remains to be seen if any of James Karinchak, Emmanuel Clase, Phil Maton, and Bryan Shaw are available to pitch tonight. The Rays have great value at their current price. Bettors should seize this opportunity.
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