MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Today — Saturday, July 31, 2021
Betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down MLB odds, picks, and predictions for today. If you don’t yet have an account at BetMGM Sportsbook, take advantage of our MLB special offer!
After an enthralling few days of blockbuster trades and breaking news reports, Major League Baseball has an exciting 15-game slate on tap for Saturday, July 31st, with quite a few players likely to make their debut with their new club. The first pitch of the day is at 3:07 PM ET as baseball returns to Canada, but there is betting value to be found throughout the entire slate of action.
Let’s take a look at some of the top plays across the league this evening.
MLB picks for Friday, July 31
Brewers vs. Braves Under 8.5 runs (-110)
After a 14-run affair in last night’s ballgame, the market seems to be inflated on the total in tonight’s matchup between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Atlanta Braves. Sports bettors should expect Brandon Woodruff to play an integral role in making this a low-scoring affair. Thus far in 2021, he has been phenomenal with a 2.14 ERA, 2.75 xERA, and a 2.60 FIP. Woodruff ranks in the 72nd percentile or higher in average exit-velocity, hard-hit percentage, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel-rate, strikeout-percentage, walk-rate, and chase rate. Only twice in 20 turns through the rotation has he allowed more than three earned runs in an outing. His counterpart, Kyle Muller has been outstanding over his last five starts—posting a 1.90 ERA and a 3.24 FIP to go with a 26.6 strikeout-percentage. His walk-rate remains high at 13.8 percent during that stretch, which is a major concern against a Milwaukee offense that has the best walk-rate of any team in the league against left-handed pitching. Still, Woodruff and Muller possess enough swing-and-miss stuff between the two of them to keep this game under the total. Back the under in this one.
Indians vs. White Sox u9.5 runs (-110)
Similar to the situation in Atlanta, the market price on this total seems to be slightly inflated after a high-scoring, 6-4 contest yesterday at Guaranteed Rate Field. Tonight’s starting pitching matchup between Triston McKenzie and Dallas Keuchel is also playing a role in the expectation that there will be quite a few runs scored in this game, but a deep dive into the underlying metrics suggests that the under has value here. In his last three starts, McKenzie has seemingly found a new grip on the baseball that has enabled him to increase his spin rate dramatically. The results have manifested in two excellent performances, with a clunker against the Houston Astros sandwiched in between. Playing in a dome could have had a negative impact on his grip because, of his last three starts, the one at Minute Maid Park was the only outing during which he failed to generate excellent spin rates. High humidity tonight in Chicago in an outdoor venue should help him deliver a solid outing against a White Sox lineup that ranks 27th in OPS and 21st in ISO over the last two weeks. Keuchel has been abysmal in 2021, but he draws a favorable matchup tonight against a Cleveland lineup that struggles mightily against southpaws. The Indians have also struggled in general recently—ranking 28th in OPS and 25th in ISO over the last 14 days. Although neither starting pitcher in this matchup is elite, pitcher-friendly weather conditions and two struggling offenses should make it difficult for this game to hit double-digits in runs scored. Bettors should play the under here.
Reds vs. Mets Under 8.5 (-110)
Over the last three years, Citi Field has produced the sixth-fewest offense of any stadium in Major League Baseball. Excluding “(player-popup #wade-miley)Wade Miley”:/players/wade-miley-11462’s most recent start during which he exhibited uncharacteristically poor command in tough weather conditions in Chicago, he owns a 2.74 ERA and a 3.00 FIP over his last 12 outings. This evening, he will face a New York Mets lineup that ranks 19th in OPS and 25th in ISO on the season against left-handed pitching. Recently acquired by the Mets, Rich Hill owns a less stellar 5.40 ERA and a 5.74 FIP across his last 38.1 innings of work. However, he has an opportunity to have a decent outing tonight against a Cincinnati offense that is still missing Nick Castellanos, and ranks 24th in both OPS and ISO against southpaws in 2021. A low-scoring affair is likely in order tonight in Flushing.
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