MLB Player Props for Monday, 8/4: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Pete Alonso, Mike Yastrzemski, and Sonny Gray? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Monday, August 4th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Monday’s MLB slate features 13 games, beginning at 6:40 PM ET. There are plenty of big names scheduled to be on the bump to begin the new week, including Sandy Alcantara, Max Fried, Tyler Glasnow, and more – which should lead to an entertaining night of baseball across the league.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Monday, August 4th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Monday, August 4
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 6:40 PM ET on Monday, August 4th:
- Pete Alonso Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Mike Yastrzemski Over/Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Sonny Gray Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
Pete Alonso OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125, BetMGM)
BETMGMThis season, Alonso has been at his best against RHP, hitting .282 with a 151 wRC+. Tonight, he gets to face Slade Cecconi, who struggled to a 4.85 FIP in July. Cecconi also has reverse splits, with better swing-and-miss stuff against lefties than righties. Much has been made about Alonso’s recent struggles at the plate, but he has an impressive 22% barrel rate and 46.3% hard-hit rate since the All-Star Break. Some better luck on balls in play could result in plenty of productive days for Alonso during August if he continues to see the ball well.
Mike Yastrzemski OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (+125, BetMGM)
BETMGMYastrzemski was acquired by the Royals at the trade deadline, which should be a net positive for his offensive production. This season, Yastrzemski is hitting .250 with a 115 wRC+ against RHP. He’s also walked at an impressive 14.6% clip in such situations, which makes him a good bet to get on base this evening. Brayan Bello has struggled with lefties throughout his career and 2025 has been no different – posting a 4.78 FIP and 1.37 WHIP. Yastrzemski should have opportunities to make a positive impact in this spot.
Sonny Gray OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-120, BetMGM)
BETMGMGray hasn’t pitched into the 6th inning in an outing since July 2, but there are a lot of factors, including some general baseball randomness, that have contributed to that fact. Gray has posted an unsightly 8.44 ERA in his last 5 turns through the rotation, but he also has a 4.00 FIP and 23.3% K-BB% in that span — both strong indicators that he’s been more unlucky than bad. He’s also been hurt by a likely unsustainable .471 BABIP and 54.5% strand rate.
Gray has certainly been getting barreled up of late, so not all of his ill fortune has been undeserved. Still, he is the caliber of pitcher who should routinely be given opportunities to work into the 6th inning of games. It’s also worth noting that, despite his struggles, he’s still been very efficient, averaging only 3.4 pitches per batter faced during the last 30 days. We are past the trade deadline, so there should be no workload concerns related to keeping him healthy or anything of that regard, either.
The Dodgers offense ranks only 18th with a 106 wRC+ against RHP during the last 14 days. This is a very playable number for a pitcher who is both talented and undoubtedly due for some positive regression to the mean in the near future.
Looking for even more betting insight? Check out the latest bet365 picks for today’s top props and predictions.
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