MLB Player Props Today: Gray, Berrios, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (July 24)
What kind of performances can we expect on Monday from Jon Gray, Jose Berrios, and Alex Bregman? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Monday, July 24, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Monday! Today’s 10-game MLB slate began earlier this afternoon under the sun in the Motor City, but there are still nine games left to get underway as of this writing. Five of today’s contests have a scheduled first pitch of 8:10 p.m. EST or later, giving the betting community plenty of time to find some plays to their linking to begin the new week.
We went 11-4 in this article last week and are hoping for more of the same this week! Since May 1, we are 108-86-7 on non-Home Run props and 2-4 on Home Run recommendations. We are now 76-42-4 on pitcher prop recommendations for the season. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for July 24!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-9-1
Hitter: 74-73-4
Stolen Base: 0-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 2-1
Outs Recorded: 27-13
Strikeout: 50-27-3
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4
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MLB Player Props Today
- Jon Gray u5.5 Strikeouts
- Jose Berrios u17.5 Outs Recorded
- Alex Bregman less than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts
Jon Gray u5.5 Strikeouts (-158), FanDuel
Simply, this market number is too high. Entering play on Monday, Jon Gray has eclipsed this market number only five times in 18 starts. In his last six turns through the rotation, Gray has never had more than four strikeouts. During the month of July, the Houston Astros have the seventh-lowest strikeout rate of any team in the league against right-handed pitching. According to props.cash, only six of the last 21 right-handed starting pitchers to face the Astros have hit the over relative to their pre-game strikeout number on the market. The under is a very strong look here.
Jose Berrios u17.5 Outs Recorded (-120), BetMGM
According to props.cash, Jose Berrios has finished at least six innings of work in 12 of his last 17 starts. However, that impressive ratio could take a hit on Monday evening against a talented Los Angeles Dodgers offense. Since July 1, the Dodgers lead all of baseball in OPS, ISO, BB%, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Berrios does not have the worst home-and-away splits of any pitcher in baseball, but pitching away from home certainly does not help him in this matchup. The under has good value here, despite the recent run of success that Berrios has experienced.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Alex Bregman less than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts, PrizePicks
Alex Bregman is no longer the MVP-force that he was in his prime, but his approach at the plate remains among the best in all of baseball. Ahead of first pitch tonight, Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate, 98th percentile in whiff%, and the 95th percentile in chase rate. Put another way, Bregman rarely swings and misses, almost never chases bad pitches out of the zone, and consequently, rarely strikes out compared to his peers. Since June 24, Jon Gray owns a pedestrian 8.0% swinging strike rate. Trust Bregman to get the job done here.
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