MLB Player Props Today: Strider, Lynn, Plus a PrizePicks Prediction (August 31)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Spencer Strider, Lance Lynn, and Jon Berti? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Thursday, August 31, 2023. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Thursday! Major League Baseball has a rare four-game slate on tap today, with many teams using this afternoon to travel to new cities for their weekend series. The action begins in the Motor City at 1:10 p.m. EST under the sun, with the other three contests starting at 7:05 p.m. EST or later. Despite the small slate, we have found some value for the betting community to consider tailing!
Across the last few weeks, we are 73-46-2 (61.3%) in this article. Since May 1, we are 168-127-9 on non-Home Run props and 2-6 on Home Run recommendations. We are now 100-52-5 (65.7%) on pitcher prop recommendations for the season. There is plenty of opportunity once again on the player prop market today – below are three prop leans for August 31!
MLB Props Results – Wager Type
HITTER PROPS
Dinger Tuesday: 4-11-1
Hitter: 114-106-5
Stolen Base: 0-2
PITCHER PROPS
Hits Allowed: 3-2
Outs Recorded: 33-19
Strikeout: 63-31-3
Walk: 1-0
Earned Runs Allowed: 0-0-1
MISCELLANEOUS PROPS
1st Inning: 0-4
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MLB Player Props Today
- Spencer Strider u8.5 Strikeouts
- Lance Lynn u17.5 Outs Recorded
- Jon Berti Less Than 0.5 Strikeouts
Spencer Strider u8.5 Strikeouts (-145), PointsBet
According to props.cash, each of the last eight right-handed starting pitchers to face the Los Angeles Dodgers have recorded fewer than eight strikeouts. Five of the last seven right-handed starting pitchers to face the Dodgers have gone under their pre-game market number for strikeouts. Eury Perez and Corbin Burnes are the only two starters since July 15 to record nine strikeouts against Los Angeles. Simply, this is a difficult matchup for Strider, facing an offense that has the 4th-lowest strikeout rate of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching during August. The under is a smart play here.
Lance Lynn u17.5 Outs Recorded (+115), BetMGM
Since August 1, the Atlanta Braves rank 2nd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 3rd in strikeout percentage, 3rd in line-drive rate, and have hit the baseball harder than almost any other team in the league against right-handed pitching. Since coming over to the Los Angeles Dodgers at the trade deadline, Lance Lynn owns a 2.03 ERA, but a 4.68 FIP and a 4.24 xFIP in that span suggests imminent regression. Lynn has managed to sustain a lucky .244 BABIP, despite allowing an abundance of hard-contact in his last five starts – only two of which came against a quality offense. At plus money, this is a good look on Thursday, especially with the Dodgers having an extremely rested bullpen.
MLB DFS Pick’em
Jon Berti Less Than 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts, PrizePicks
Entering play on Thursday, Jon Berti has struck out in only 16.9% of his plate appearances against right-handed pitching in 2023. He draws a favorable matchup this evening against Joan Adon, who has struck out only 20.8% of the right-handed batters he has faced this year. In four starts during August, Adon owns a pedestrian 6.3% swinging-strike rate and has allowed contact on 94.3% of swings at pitches in the strike zone. Berti rarely chases bad pitches, ranking the 84th percentile in chase rate, making him a good candidate to avoid a strikeout in this matchup.
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