MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Thursday (8/22)
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Miles Mikolas, Gavin Williams, and Paul Skenes? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and today – Thursday, August 22, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Thursday’s MLB slate features 10 games, beginning this afternoon in the Bronx at 1:05 p.m. ET. Still, 5 of today’s 10 games have a scheduled first pitch of 6:40 p.m. ET or later, giving the betting community plenty of time to find a play or two to their liking – even if they are stuck at the office for the early action.
Since the beginning of last year, we are 147-80 (64.8%) +30.07u on pitcher prop recommendations in this article during the regular season. A bettor who has tailed every player prop, including batter props, in this article during that time period is +45.21u overall.
Below, we have 3 plays worth considering for Thursday’s action!
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MLB Player Props Today
Miles Mikolas Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Gavin Williams Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
Paul Skenes Over/Under 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed
Miles Mikolas UNDER 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (+100), DraftKings
Miles Mikolas has “struggled” to a 6.66 ERA since the All-Star Break, but he’s been more unlucky than bad. There are a number of underlying metrics indicating that he’s due for some positive regression sooner than later, including an unlucky .386 BABIP and 59.8% strand rate. His poor luck on balls in play is particularly noteworthy, given that he’s only allowed a 6.6% barrel rate during that stretch, which is significantly lower than the league-average pitcher. Mikolas is never going to be an elite strikeout pitcher, but he pounds the strike zone and earns a fair number of ground balls, which gives him a chance to be competitive most times when he takes the mound. The weather isn’t great for hitters in St. Louis, either, which only further increases the likelihood that we see a nice bounce-back performance from Mikolas in this spot.
Gavin Williams UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-160), BetMGM
The Yankees don’t immediately jump out at anyone as a particularly contact-oriented offense, but their lineup card is exactly that. Since July 1, Gleyber Torres, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Austin Wells, Giancarlo Stanton, Alex Verdugo, Anthony Volpe, and Oswaldo Cabrera each have a 20.5% strikeout rate or lower against right-handed pitching – with the league average strikeout rate during that stretch being 22.3%.
Gavin Williams has three games of 8+ strikeouts since the All-Star Break, but his 11.3% swinging-strike rate in that span is almost exactly league average. Afternoon games sometimes yield unexpected outcomes due to the teams skipping batting practice. However, the math clearly favors the under based on the last couple of months of data.
Paul Skenes OVER 1.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-105), DraftKings
From May 11 to June 23, Paul Skenes averaged 99.3 mph on his fastball. During that 8-start stretch, Skenes posted a 2.14 ERA, 2.52 FIP, and 33.7% strikeout rate. In his subsequent 8 starts, Skenes has averaged only 98.3 mph on his fastball. During those starts, Skenes has been slightly more vulnerable, with a 2.44 ERA, 3.26 FIP, and a 30.0% strikeout rate. His walk rate has nearly doubled as well.
Skenes has put together a masterful rookie campaign, but declining velocity and spin rates are often a sign of a player not being 100% healthy – whether that’s due to fatigue or injury. The Reds aren’t a great offense, but all it takes is a bloop and a blast at this market number. Skenes is more vulnerable than the market is suggesting with this line being priced at near even-money.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 11-7
Outs Recorded: 5-4
Earned Runs Allowed: 4-2
Hits Allowed: 2-0
Walks Allowed: 1-2
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 9-8
Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2-0
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 6-13-2
Combined Record: 44-38-2 (53.7%)
Image Credit: Getty Images