MLB Player Props Today: Best Bets & Predictions for Wednesday (3/20)
What kind of performances can we expect on Wednesday from Tyler Glasnow, Yu Darvish, and Freddie Freeman? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets and DFS pick’em predictions for today – Wednesday, March 20, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Major League Baseball is BACK! On Wednesday, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres will play the first regular season game of the 2024 campaign when they meet at the Gocheok Sky Dome in Korea. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05 a.m. ET on ESPN.
Last year, we were 120-59 (67.2%) on pitcher prop recommendations in this article for the entire regular season. Today is the first step towards another profitable 8 months on the diamond!
Below are three prop leans for March 20!
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MLB Player Props Today
- Tyler Glasnow Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts
- Yu Darvish Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts
- Freddie Freeman Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases
Tyler Glasnow UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-150), DraftKings
Tyler Glasnow is one of the most talented pitchers in Major League Baseball when healthy, but he draws a tough matchup out of the gate against the high-contact San Diego Padres. Following the All-Star Break last season, only 3 teams struck out less frequently against right-handed pitching than the Padres, and only 2 teams walked at a higher rate in such situations. During that stretch, San Diego ranked 3rd in overall contact%, 2nd in contact% on pitches out of the strike zone, and 6th in contact% on pitches in the strike zone. If the Padres use the same lineup on Wednesday that they deployed Sunday in an exhibition game, they will have 6 players who struck out less frequently than the league-average hitter against right-handed pitching in 2023, in addition to the high-contact Jackson Merrill who struck out in only 13% of his plate appearances in Double-A last year. Factor in that Glasnow is likely capped at ~85 pitches, and his path to 7+ strikeouts becomes a real challenge.
Yu Darvish UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-145), Fanatics
Following the All-Star Break in 2023, the Los Angeles Dodgers had the 6th-lowest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching. During that stretch, they ranked 6th in overall contact%, 10th in contact% on pitches out of the strike zone, and 7th in contact% on pitches in the strike zone. Reportedly, Michael King is likely to pitch out of the bullpen in a bulk role in one of the two upcoming games in Korea, which means Yu Darvish could be on a relatively short leash on Wednesday. Even on an unrestricted pitch count, Darvish managed 6+ strikeouts in only 13 of his final 22 turns through the rotation last season. There is a reason this line has moved so dramatically since it opened at -136, which is where Charlie Wright caught it for the ScoresAndOdds crew!
Freddie Freeman UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-105), DraftKings
Freddie Freeman is undeniably one of the premier hitters in Major League Baseball, but it’s still not an easy feat to amass multiple total bases in a game. In 2023, Freeman had 2+ total bases only 80 times in 164 games counting the postseason. He gets a somewhat favorable matchup on Wednesday against Yu Darvish, who struggled against left-handed hitters last year, but the ballpark throws cold water on the situation. Tomorrow’s game will be played at roughly sea level in a dome, which creates a slight advantage for the pitcher. Factor in that San Diego’s outfield defense is stellar without the presence of Juan Soto, and it feels more likely than not that Freeman will need a home run to collect 2+ total bases – which is not a probable outcome.
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