MLB Playoffs Betting Odds and American League Wild Card Series Picks

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The MLB Playoffs have arrived, and they’re unlike anything we’ve ever seen. 16 teams begin their quests to the 2020 World Series, starting with eight unprecedented three-game Wild Card Series matchups. The three-game Wild Card Series will give us a unique opportunity to find an edge while betting on the MLB playoffs at online sportsbooks — it only takes a two-game slump for one of the top seeds to be eliminated.

It’s pretty easy to look at who’s slated to pitch in each of the first three games and find some value in these MLB playoff series prices before the first pitches are thrown. In particular, there are a couple spots that seem like home runs for MLB bettors on the American League side of the bracket. Let’s step up to the plate and make our Wild Card Series picks.

MLB Playoffs Odds Wild Cards Series Odds

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American League Wild Card Picks

Cleveland Indians (+106) vs. New York Yankees

This one just seems too easy to me. The Yankees have a lineup that is filled top to bottom with right-handed bats and all three of the Indians’ probable starters are better against righties than they are against lefties. The Yankees pitching staff isn’t good enough to win low-scoring games. Unless soon-to-be AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber gets shelled in Game 1, I think the Indians are a great bet to win this series at plus-money. Per usual, the public loves the Yankees, and as a result we find a bit of value on their opponents. We’re getting slightly better MLB odds than we should be getting on the Cleveland Indians by fading the Yankees’ pinstripes.

Toronto Blue Jays (+186) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

This is not nearly as easy, especially considering how good the Rays were this year, but I genuinely think the Jays will win this series. The Rays are favorites to win the American League, but I think this matchup is pretty unfortunate for them, and could be the biggest upset of the MLB playoffs. I think it all comes down to the Game 1 matchup between Blake Snell and Matt Shoemaker. Snell is the better pitcher, but Shoemaker kind of owns these Rays’ bats. The Rays are a career 9-for-70 against this guy, which works out to an abysmal .101 batting average. I think a sneaky hot Vladimir Guerrero Jr. takes Snell deep in this game en route to a Toronto victory.

If the Jays can take Game 1, all the pressure will shift to the top-seeded Rays to win two games in a row. I like this value here at +186 as we try to take advantage of the added variance in this short Wild Card Series round. Another strategy, which I’m likely to use, is just betting on the Blue Jays at +170 in Game 1 and not mess with Tyler Glasnow in Game 2.

Minnesota Twins (-177) vs. Houston Astros

The Houston Astros can no longer cheat and the Minnesota Twins are just awesome. I’ll lay the -177. Sorry not sorry, Houston.

Note: The statistics actually do say that the Astros have regressed, so this pick is not just doing everything in my power to bet against the Astros. I think the Twins win this series two out of three times, so they’re a value pick at anything less than -200 in terms of MLB betting odds.

Chicago White Sox (-108) vs. Oakland A’s (-108)

This one is basically a pick’em across the online sports betting industry, and I’m as perplexed as the oddsmakers. They’re exactly right that it’s a toss-up. I’m not touching the Wild Card Series price ahead of Game 1 on Monday. However, I do have a betting angle and will be making some picks throughout the series.

These teams both have plenty of right-handed power, so I’m fading the left-handed pitchers in Games 1 and 2. I’m taking the White Sox to win the 1st 5 innings of Game 1 against the southpaw Jesus Luzardo. Then in Game 2, I’m jumping over to the Oakland A’s to win the first 5 innings against Dallas Keuchel. This series will be fun to watch, so you’ll want to get some skin in the game regardless.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

mshanahan
Matt Shanahan (mshanahan)

Matt Shanahan is an engineer by trade and firmly believes in data-driven analytics. He grew up in Pennsylvania and graduated from the University of Pittsburgh. His betting strategy is to develop theories, create models to test those theories, and then collect data to see what works and what doesn’t.