MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Sunday, April 21
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Sunday, April 21
- Randy Arozarena MORE Than 0.5 Total Bases and 7.0 Fantasy Points
- Yandy Diaz MORE Than 7.0 Fantasy Points
- Jordan Hicks MORE Than 4.0 Strikeouts
- Joe Musgrove LESS Than 17.5 Outs
Randy Arozarena MORE Than 0.5 Total Bases and 7.0 Fantasy Points
Yandy Diaz MORE Than 7.0 Fantasy Points
PrizePicks is really conservative on the Rays, so we have a great spot to get aggressive. The Rays get a huge ballpark bump in Yankee Stadium and face Luis Gil, who has 12.86 K/9, but also a BB-per-inning (that’s not a typo). Gil hasn’t surrendered a barrel this season, but there are signs of regression, like not throwing strikes very often. His whiff rate is 28.1% despite only a 21% swing rate on pitches outside of the zone. Righties are hitting him hard to the tune of 43.8% when he doesn’t walk or strike them out. He’s allowed just a .231 BABIP, despite a 15.4% fly ball rate. This guy is either the second coming of Nolan Ryan or the regression monster should attack at any time. Why not now? Why not against the Rays?
We have Randy Arozarena and Yandy Diaz projecting best among them: Arozarena for 2.2 total bases and 11.4 fantasy points and Yandy Diaz for 10.8 fantasy points. If we wanna get really aggressive with this lineup, Isaac Paredes also only has a 0.5 total base projection on Prize Picks even though we project him for 2.1.
Jordan Hicks MORE Than 4.0 Strikeouts
We have Jordan Hicks projected for 4.8 strikeouts. Hicks is bringing 10.05 K/9 to the table. The DEMON projection is 5.5, and I really hate it because Arizona doesn’t strike out much. It’s the standard number that our projections are saying to attack.
Joe Musgrove LESS Than 17.5 Outs
Joe Musgrove has produced 18 outs in two of his last three, but the Blue Jays are pesky. They don’t have a ton of power, but they have a lot of talent and don’t strike out much. Musgrove has allowed a pretty moderate 76.1% contact rate, but his K rate this season is way down to 17.5% against righties. He should get tagged at a high frequency today. His .367 BABIP is unlucky but not a total accident, as his line drive rate allowed is a whopping 31.7%, and righties have had a 44.7% hard-hit rate against him. I just don’t see how he stays in this game through luck alone, and our projections agree, only having him for 15.4 outs on the day.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
This isn’t a great slate for Prize Picks. I might just run two or three cheap tickets, hammering on these plays and Rays DEMON plays that pop up for the hitters. There is a game in Cincinnati, but PrizePicks is currently holding back projections on that one. Jonathan India and Elly De La Cruz have interesting projections, but they’re not particularly juicy. Stay tuned to them as the morning goes on for a last-minute ticket.
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