MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Sunday, July 7th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
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All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Sunday, July 7th
- George Kirby MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
- Ryne Nelson LESS Than 3.5 Strikeouts
- Edward Cabrera MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts
- Hayden Wesneski MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts
- DJ Herz MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
George Kirby MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
If the Jays roll out 6 righties, George Kirby is a great play to get into the 7th inning. He’s allowed just a .246 wOBA and .107 ISO, along with a 1.4% BB rate to righties. The Jays projected lineup just has one barrel rate over 9.5% against right-handed pitching since the start of the 2023 season — Vladimir Guerrero (12.8%) — and he has a 46% ground ball rate to just a 21.8% fly ball rate over that stretch. Kirby’s logged more than 18 outs in 3 of his last 5 starts and has a legit ceiling north of 95 pitches. We have Kirby projected for 18.1 outs on the day, so the DEMON juice is juicy.
Ryne Nelson LESS Than 3.5 Strikeouts
We don’t normally attack K projections this low, but Ryne Nelson is facing a Padres projected lineup with just a 16.2% K rate against righties, and he shouldn’t last very long in this affair. To boot, Nelson comes with no strikeout stuff of his own, including a 16% whiff rate, 8.3% swinging strike rate, and a 22.9% CSW rate for a 15% K rate. On top of that, he struggles mightily with power prevention, allowing a 9.7% barrel rate. Nelson has passed 3 Ks in just 1 of his last 7 starts, so we have him projected for just 2.5 strikeouts on the day.
Edward Cabrera MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts
Edward Cabrera is a very poor man’s Luis Gil. In a hitters park, his 15% BB rate and 7.7% barrel rate allowed since the start of the 2023 season are both too high when you put them together to invest any trust in him. But he gets to face the White Sox in Miami today, so this could be a ceiling performance for him, and 5.0 is just too low of a number for his 28% K rate over this stretch considering that the Sox are striking out 23.3% of the time against righties this season. We have Cabrera projected for 5.5 Ks on the day.
Hayden Wesneski MORE Than 5.0 Strikeouts
I hate investing money in Hayden Wesneski because his piss-poor power prevention without elite command can knock him out of ball games early. Fortunately for us, the Cubs bullpen has been a mess and Wesneski does have 9.18 K/9, so he could get into the 6th inning to compile a 6th or 7th K. The Angels are precisely the type of matchup in which we can dig into any right-handed pitcher against them for MORE than 5.0 Ks, given their 25.5% K rate versus them. We have Wesneski projected for 5.6 Ks on the day, a 12% boost over PrizePicks’ projection.
DJ Herz MORE Than 15.5 Outs (DEMON)
It’s tough to play MORE than 15.5 outs on a guy who has only hit 16 outs once in 6 starts, but DJ Herz hit 16 in his last start, which was the first time his pitch count rose over 87 to 92, so the leash is getting longer. The Cardinals aren’t any damn good — .298 wOBA, .143 ISO, 5.8% barrel rate against left-handed pitching — while Herz has been pretty good in his limited action (121 batters faced) for a 3.45 ERA, 12.33 K/9, and 2.33 BB/9 for a 24.8% K-BB rate. We have Herz projected for exactly 15.0 outs, so this is purely a play on his talent and the DEMON juice.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
Tons of great pitching plays to attack before hitters DEMON plays have been posted. My lean is that I won’t be playing many hitters today because the projections are pretty tight on total bases. I’d check into our pick ‘em tool for nice fantasy points projections to attack for cheap.
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