MLB PrizePicks Predictions: Top Plays for Sunday, March 31
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great Fantasy Pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple.
If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Sunday, March 31
- Corbin Carroll MORE Than 9.0 Fantasy Points
- Mike Trout MORE Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI
- Tylor Megill LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts
- Jake Rogers MORE Than 0.5 Total Bases
Corbin Carroll MORE Than 9.0 Fantasy Points vs. Rockies
Corbin is a guy I look toward often for fantasy points and hits+runs+RBI projections because he accumulates production in so many different ways. Facing a pitcher like Ryan Feltner, who has had a 7.84 K/9 with an abysmal 4.16 BB/9 through his 147-IP career, we should love Carroll to get on base, wreak havoc, and get driven in. He can score ten fantasy points in one plate appearance without hitting a home run. And he can hit a home run too.
On top of stealing 54 bags with a .362 OBP, Carroll hit 25 HRs, 30 2Bs, and 10 3Bs, slugging .506. This is more than a guy who just gets on base and runs a lot.
We have Carroll projected for 12.3 fantasy points (36.7% above PrizePicks), the greatest difference between PrizePicks’ projections and ours.
Mike Trout MORE Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI at Orioles
As long as Mike Trout is still healthy, his PrizePicks projections are always too low somewhere. The shine’s worn off a bit on him for a lot of the field. Trout isn’t stealing 40 bases any time soon, but he’s still a great hitter.
He only had 359 PAs in 2023, but he still regularly smashed baseballs when he was on the field. He had a .389 xwOBA with a 16.0% barrel rate and a 51.9% hard-hit rate, all good for the 95th percentile. Today, he draws a tough ballpark in Camden Yards but has a great matchup against Tyler Wells, who surrendered a slate-high 1.90 HR/9 on a slate-high 11.8% barrel rate over nearly 120 IP in 2023.
It’s rare to see a PrizePicks hits+runs+RBI projection hit 2.0 or higher. We have Trout projected for 2.2, 46.7% higher than his PrizePicks projection. There are a few 2.3 projections with the 2.5 of Aaron Judge, which could entice players over the Trout play and keep Trout in play, but we should probably pounce on this number as soon as possible.
I shouldn’t have to say this, but I will. Judge’s hits+runs+RBI is the nuts today against pitcher like J.P. France who can’t strike anyone out.
Tylor Megill LESS Than 5.5 Strikeouts vs. Brewers
5.5 is a big number for a pitcher who only had 7.48 K/9 in 2023. He can strike out a man per inning, but he also had a 4.13 BB/9, which makes it tough to project him staying in the game for the six innings he’ll need for a shot at six strikeouts. Megill is wildly inconsistent and capable of mowing down the Brewers, but he had six or more strikeouts in only six of 25 starts in 2023. Again, 5.5 is just a really big number.
Jake Rogers MORE Than 0.5 Total Bases at White Sox
Erick Fedde pitched in KBO in 2023 after struggling mightily with power prevention throughout his MLB career. He’s surrendered 1.55 HR/9 through over 450 IP in that career. Fedde rejoins the league as a member of the White Sox in a great ballpark for hitting homers. A HR/9 closer to 1.75 than 1.50 is totally reasonable for Fedde this season. Debuting in Chicago on Sunday, we should like Jake Rogers to bring his 21 HRs through 369 PAs and his double-digit barrel rate since 2023 to Fedde in a big way. I don’t like that Rogers is hitting seventh, but he has a great shot to get at least a hit, let alone take one deep.
We have Rogers projected for 1.7 bases on the day despite his spot in the batting order.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
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