MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Sunday, May 19th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks tool makes the process even simpler.
All stats cited are since the start of the 2023 season unless otherwise noted.
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MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Sunday, May 19th
- Bryce Elder LESS Than 17.5 Outs
- Jameson Taillon LESS Than 17.5 Outs
- Jordan Hicks LESS Than 17.5 Outs
- Aaron Judge MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
- Joey Loperfido LESS Than 1.5 Strikeouts
Bryce Elder LESS Than 17.5 Outs
The Padres don’t strike out. Their projected lineup only has a 16.4% K rate against righties, and Bryce Elder only has a 17.7% K rate himself, so he’s gonna use up a lot of pitches to compile outs or get knocked around a lot. And he gets knocked around pretty hard for a 49.1% hard-hit rate. He only has 5.1, 3.1, and 5.1 IP in his last 3 starts. He only completed 6 innings in his season debut for 6.2 IP against the dreadful Marlins. We have Elder projected for 15.4 outs, and this is only the second-best play on the board according to our pick ‘em tool.
Jameson Taillon LESS Than 17.5 Outs
Jameson Taillon has a strong floor with the wind blowing in at Wrigley, but 17.5 outs is still too high to ignore. He’s been all over the place this season, so betting against 6 innings has to be a winning proposition — 4, 6, 7.1, 5.2, and 5 IP in his 5 starts. The Pirates’ projected lineup can strike out (24.5% K rate against righties), but Taillon has really struggled to miss bats this season — 15.4% K rate, 18.2% whiff rate, 9.2% SwSt rate — and lefties can crush him. The Pirates are gonna toss five bats at Taillon from the left side, to whom Taillon has allowed a 13.9% barrel rate. The wind is on his side for fly balls, but everything else is gonna get hit hard. We have LESS than 17.5 outs for Taillon as the best play on the board, though he’s projected for 16.1 — slightly more than Elder. Both are great plays to which we’ll want a lot of exposure. Taillon’s LESS than 31.5 fantasy points is a great play too, as we have him projected for 27.2.
Jordan Hicks LESS Than 17.5 Outs
This seems like a squeeze because the Rockies are an abomination, but Jordan Hicks has no leash. Projected for 91 pitches, Hicks just walks too many people (3.80 BB/9) and gets himself in trouble against any opponent. He’s only completed 6 IP once in his last 6 starts. We have him projected for 16.4 outs, so he’s a little riskier than Taillon for the opponent and ballpark, but this is a great play nonetheless.
Aaron Judge MORE Than 2.5 Total Bases (DEMON)
It’s the best hitter in baseball — by far— in the Statcast Era against one of the worst pitchers in baseball, followed by the worst bullpen in baseball, in Yankee Stadium. Don’t overthink this.
While 2.5 is a big number, we have Aaron Judge projected for 2.6 total bases. The juice is juicy.
Juan Soto has the same PrizePicks projection and is a fine play, but he’s no Aaron Judge at the plate when it comes to actually hitting baseballs.
Joey Loperfido LESS Than 1.5 Strikeouts
I don’t expose myself much to hitting plays, so I’m already not highly exposed to Joey Loperfido and his strikeout projection, but I’m gonna sprinkle this around. Loperfido is striking out a lot to start his career, and he will strike out a lot as an MLB hitter, judging from his 30%+ K rate in Triple-A. But he also makes great contact, and Colin Rea isn’t missing any bats. Rea only has a 15.7% K rate this season after a 16.6% whiff rate and 7.6% SwSt rate. The 1.5 number is probably too high to bank on considering that the Brewers try to get Rea to pitch two-thirds of the game- 75% of the game when you consider that the Astros might only get 8 innings of hitting in. Loperfido is hitting at the bottom of the order too, so he’s probably not getting to 5 PAs on the home team. Our pick ‘em tool is high on this play, and I can buy it.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
It’s a full slate where a ton of pitchers are over-projected for volume by PrizePicks. The strikeout projections are a bit too efficient, so I’m gonna live in the LESS than pitching outs streets on the day, sprinkling in Yankees, Astros, and Royals hitters around.
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