MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Wednesday, July 10th


Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.

In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.

PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.

If you haven’t signed up for a PrizePicks account, make sure to use the PrizePicks promo code ROTOBONUS and get a $100 deposit match. Also, check out more apps like PrizePicks.

All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.

MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Wednesday, July 10th

Logan Webb LESS Than 20.5 Outs

I’m not gonna tell you bad things about Webb. I’m just gonna tell you that 20.5 is a ridiculously high number. If this were against the A’s, Mariners, or White Sox, it would be scary either way, but, as bad as the Jays can be, getting mowed over for 7 innings is a huge ask. Webb has completed 7 IP in 6 of his last 8 starts, so this could be PrizePicks on tilt, but I’m gonna trust our projection of 18.4 outs, which is 10.2% lower than PrizePicks. 20.5 is kinda silly against a team that can BABIP anyone around in the middle of the game to force them out.

Nick Pivetta MORE Than 7.0 Strikeouts

The risk with Pivetta is that he can throw 100 pitches over 7 IP or 75 pitches over 4 IP. When a projection is this high on PrizePicks, we don’t look at the K rate first; instead, we look at the leash. That said, he gets to face the A’s, who are close to the least likeliest team to give him trouble and knock him out early, as they’re projected lineup has just a .307 wOBA against RHP. Pivetta getting some distance can outright smash this projection, with his 28.1% K rate to Oakland’s 26.5% K rate in its projected lineup vs. RHP. Pivetta is low-key one of the better strikeout pitchers in the game and in one of the most favorable strikeout matchups. We have him projected for 7.5 Ks.

Kyle Freeland LESS Than 4.0 Strikeouts

A lot is made of Elly De La Cruz being worse against LHP, but he’s been better this season, and this projected lineup for the Reds has been pretty damn good against LHP (.365 wOBA, .201 ISO). Sure, they have a 27.1% K rate, but Freeland has just a 16.1% whiff rate. Not K rate. Whiff rate. His actual K rate is just 12.8%. Remember that we look at the leash first, and we can’t be sure that Freeland gets into the 6th inning. He should get mashed so hard, so we should like our projection of 3.3 Ks. This is risky because 4.0 is a very low number, but Freeland has only hit 4+ Ks in 2 of his 7 starts.

Cristopher Sanchez MORE Than 6.5 Hits Allowed (DEMON)

Off the bat, we should note that Sanchez has been fantastic. His PrizePicks projection has to get bumped up against the Dodgers though, especially because his K rate is only 20.6%. Add in that he’s gone 7+ IP in 3 of his last 4 starts, as we’ve seen the Phillies have logged the 2nd-most IP with their starters in MLB (530.2). Projected by us for 17.1 outs, Sanchez is gonna get around 6 IP, which is more than good enough for us to get the 7 hits allowed that we project for him. If you really need to know, the Dodgers projected lineup has a .376 wOBA and .223 ISO on an 11.1% barrel rate against LHP.

Reese Olson LESS Than 17.5 Outs

I don’t love this play because Olson can manage his pitch count in an economical manner, but this isn’t happening. It’s taking him nearly 100 pitches to get through 6 IP pretty regularly. Against a solid Guardians ball club, 17.5 outs just might be too large of a target, so I can buy into our 15.6 outs projection. I just don’t love it.

All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.

Early article today, so we’re low on DEMONs, but these are some great starting points to attack standard projections.

Image Credit: Getty Images

About the Author

Alex Sonty (AlexSonty)

Alex Sonty is a professional DFS and poker player and also serves as a part-time political science professor in Chicago, IL. He’s been playing fantasy sports since 1996 and entered the DFS realm in 2014, pivoting from high-stakes cash games to mid-stakes MLB and NFL tournaments in recent years. He is a Chicago Tribune, SB Nation, and FanGraphs alum, while holding a J.D./M.A. and L.L.M. from DePaul University. Follow Sonty on Twitter – @AlexSonty