MLB AL Wild Card Betting Picks: Rays at Athletics
The Rays and Athletics will meet in Oakland in the American League Wild Card game. The Athletics are home favorites behind the white-hot arm of Sean Manaea while the Rays counter with a borderline AL Cy Young candidate in Charlie Morton. Here is a sports betting preview and MLB betting picks for tonight’s American League Wild Card game.
The opening night of the MLB playoffs certainly did not disappoint as the Nationals mounted a late-inning comeback against the visiting Brewers to ignite the Washington crowd. Max Scherzer was average — giving up two home runs and leaving after five innings with a 3-1 deficit. Josh Hader was called upon in the eighth inning to shut down the Nationals offense and because everything in baseball makes sense, Hader blew the lead after a bases-loaded double off of the bat of Juan Soto. Washington bettors — raises hand — went for a rollercoaster ride. If tonight’s American League game remotely resembles last night’s tilt, we are in for a treat.
MLB AL Wild Card Betting Picks — Rays vs. Athletics
Rays (+124) vs. Athletics (-140), O/U 7.5 Runs
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Pitching Primer
The Tampa Bay Rays will hand the baseball to Charlie Morton after a spectacular 2019 season. Despite a small streak of bad starts towards the end of August, Morton was extremely consistent throughout the year with strikeouts and a 3.28 xFIP. The Rays needed a strong September from Morton to help sew up their spot and they found just what they needed. Morton pitched 29 and 2/3 innings — striking out 39 batters while only walking ten to win three of his five starts. Aside from Matt Olson, the Athletics projected lineup at RotoGrinders is very right-handed heavy with plenty of power. Morton finished the season with a 27.0% K-rate versus righties while only allowing a .094 ISO and 27.9 FB%. Charlie Morton — with previous postseason experience — seems well-built for tonight’s matchup.
For the home team, Sean Manaea gets the nod after a stellar September for the Athletics where he returned from the IL. Over five starts, Manaea only gave up four earned runs on the way to 1.21 ERA and four wins. He struck out thirty batters over 29 and 2/3 innings and gave the Athletics a much-needed lift to help fend off other Wild Card hopefuls. That said, Manaea’s underlying numbers are a concern. A measly .194 BABIP contributed to a 3.98 xFIP (well above his 1.21 ERA). Manaea also left 100% of baserunners on base — a number that is screaming for regression. A plus for Manaea is the presence of several weaker hitters against lefties and a very favorable ballpark. Despite the recent success, Manaea might be riper for the picking than the Empire apples my children and I gathered this past weekend.
The Bats
The visiting Rays finished the season with a team 102 wRC+ and an average .178 ISO. The 23.8 K% for the Rays was a bit damning but a 8.6 BB% was slightly redeeming. The current iteration of their lineup projected for tonight lacks punch against left-handed pitching with only three hitters (d’Arnaud, Diaz, and Meadows) finishing the season with ISO numbers above .200. Despite the low ISO, the team as a whole brings a hard-hit rate above 39%. Yandy Diaz back at the top of the lineup is a huge plus with his paltry 20.5 K% and .407 wOBA versus lefties. The Rays appear to be built for a low-scoring affair, tonight.
The Athletics, well, they are a powerful bunch. Unlike the Rays, five of the projected hitters finished the season with an ISO above .200 against right-handed hurlers. Seth Brown barely missed the cut with a .197 ISO. The heart of the order will strike out at a relatively big clip and could certainly be stymied by Morton’s strikeout ability. However, the A’s are not in this position because of an average pitching staff, rather, a powerful lineup that finished top five in wRC+ (107). Their potency cannot be questioned but a 22.0% K-rate versus righties could give Morton a path to a strong performance.
The MLB AL Wild Card Pick — Rays (+124)
AL Wild Card Pick: Rays +124 on FanDuel Sportsbook (use our FanDuel promo code to get these odds)
I squeaked by last night in an unexpected fashion. I expected Scherzer to suppress runs and he promptly gave up two. I expected the only Brewers’ path to victory to be a tight game supported by a great bullpen — Hader blew a save. What do I know?
What I do know is that Charlie Morton does not feel like a starting pitcher worthy of this +124 number on FanDuel Sportsbook. Even if the game seems relatively even with both teams’ strengths and weaknesses, the number seems too good to pass on. Also, the small sample that Sean Manaea put together is not enough to convince me that he will shut down a playoff-caliber offense. Give me the Rays at +124 on FanDuel.
MLB AL Wild Card Betting Picks — Charlie Morton Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts
I do not have much interest in overloading on props in this game. Home runs are not appealing in this ballpark. That said, I do like the over on Morton’s strikeouts set at 6.5 strikeouts. At +100 on DraftKings Sportsbook, I will be investing a bit in this over against an Athletics team that strikes out enough to put this number in play.
Thanks for stopping by and reading today’s piece. Look for more MLB playoff articles throughout the postseason.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images