Monday Night Football Odds & Picks: Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
While most of the talk will surround Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, and the Buccaneers’ rebuilt offense, Monday Night Football features two of the league’s top defenses. Points could be at a premium in the final game of Week 11. Will the Buccaneers make it back-to-back victories? Will the offenses score points?
Rams vs. Buccaneers Monday Football Odds
After the line opened with the Buccaneers as three-point favorites, online betting sites have steadily moved the number to 4.5 points in favor of Tampa Bay — this despite the Rams garnering 51% of spread action per ScoresandOdds.com. 54% of the action on the total has been below the number — sitting at 48 points at the time of this writing.
Both teams feature dominant defenses which could suppress scoring on Monday night. Most notably, the under is 6-0 in the Rams’ last six games. The Rams love to run the football (31.1 attempts per game) and will face a defense built to devastate rushing attacks.
The Buccaneers Rebound
After looking about as bad as bad can look against the Saints in Week 9, the Buccaneers rebounded in a big way on the road against the Panthers in Week 10. Hanging 46 points and covering six points as a road favorite, Tom Brady put on a show with four total touchdowns. Ronald Jones added the longest play in Tampa Bay history with a 98-yard touchdown that erased an early fumble from memory.
The #Raiders have had no new positives in COVID-19 testing, which means several defensive players — including S Johnathan Abram and DTs Maliek Collins and Johnathan Hankins — should be on the wire as activated. When today’s test comes back for tomorrow AM, they’ll be good.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 21, 2020
Ronald Jones closed the day with 193 rushing yards on 23 attempts — further mucking up Buccaneers’ backfield situation. With the lead back role seemingly switching week-to-week, playing Jones or battery-mate Leonard Fournette in single-game DFS contests is a risky proposition.
The Tampa Bay victory moved the Bucs’ record to 7-3. After a New Orleans’ victory on Sunday powered by the legs of Taysom Hill, the Buccaneers must continue winning to keep NFC South title hopes alive.
Defense Wins Championships
Tom Brady, Antonio Brown, and the offense dominate headlines. Sean McVay was considered an emerging offensive mastermind. The offense gets all of the publicity. That said, the two defenses taking the field for Monday Night Football dominate with their play on the field.
The superlatives for each defense are bountiful. The Rams’ defense leads the NFL in yards per play (4.8 YPP) and is second in scoring (18.7 PPG). Offenses struggle to throw the ball against a disruptive defense featuring two of the most prominent players at their position: Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald. Donald is often considered the best player in the NFL — contributing to a robust 9.01% sack rate and league-leading 5.7 yards per pass attempt for the Rams’ defense.
The Tampa Bay defense is no slouch. The Buccaneers suffocate opposing run games — leading the league with only 76.6 yards per game to opposing ground games. Just behind the Rams in yards per play on defense (3rd – 4.9), the Buccaneers sack quarterbacks at an 8.27% clip en route to allowing only 22.6 points per game.
Points are going to be tough to come by. Forget all of the big names. Both of these teams want to punch opponents in the mouth. What seemed to be a potential shootout in the preseason might get pretty ugly on Monday night.
Monday Night Football Picks: Rams at Buccaneers
Antonio Brown caused a greater impact this week on his homeowner’s association than he has on the football field since his debut. Tom Brady is the talk of the town.
Who cares? Give me the defenses. The Rams and Buccaneers do not give up much to opposing offenses and that shouldn’t change on Monday night.
The Rams just held the Seahawks to 16 points (three in the second half) and 333 total yards. Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald continue to stymy offenses. The loss of Andrew Whitworth, though, could make sledding even tougher for a Rams offense that will face its toughest test thus far. Points will be at a premium. I am going to take the under on Monday Night.
Monday Night Football Pick: Under 48 Points (PointsBet -110)
Monday Night Football Rams & Buccaneers Props
Tom Brady UNDER 300.5 Passing Yards (Pointsbets -130) – The Rams have yet to allow a 300-yard passer in 2020. Allowing a measly 199.7 passing yards per game, the Rams will be the toughest test for Tampa Tom to date. I will happily take the under at PointsBet as other sites offer lines closer to 292 passing yards.
Mike Evans UNDER 55.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel -110) – Speaking of unders, Mike Evans will likely draw Jalen Ramsey frequently on Monday night. I am of the belief that the entire passing game is going to struggle in this one — I want no part of the best corner on the Rams, maybe in the league. Let’s correlate our Brady under with the under from one of his prominent weapons.
Darrell Henderson +950 First Touchdown at DraftKings – Somebody has to score, right? If the Rams get in close, look for McVay to try and pound it in. DraftKings offers a Primetime promotion awarding a free bet up to $20 if your first scorer is not the first scorer but scores at some point in the game.
Image Credit: Imagn