Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Vikings vs. Bears
Monday Night Football features an NFC North clashes between the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears. Though the Bears are hostings things, it’s the Vikings who enter the game favored by a field goal at online sportsbooks despite only winning three games through the first 10 weeks of the season.
Vikings vs. Bears Monday Night Football Odds
Chicago initially opened as 1.5-point favorites via lookahead lines, but the betting line flipped by the time Week 10 rolled around, in part due to a three-game losing skid on behalf of the Bears, plus the recent rise of the Vikings who have back-to-back intradivision victories.
As of Sunday night, about two-thirds of money is being bet on the Vikings, per our friends at Scores and Odds (SAO). Though ever so slightly, NFL bettors are also leaning towards the Under, which is currently 43.5 points.
So will the Vikings continue to run their way through the trenches and cover the spread once again or will the Bears put enough offense together to keep this one close? Let’s look at each team a bit more closely before making our Monday Night Football picks.
Minnesota Vikings
After starting the season 1-5, the Minnesota Vikings do have a heartbeat. Brought back to life with a Week 8 win as a 7-point underdog in Lambeau, Mike Zimmer’s squad still has a lot of work to do if they wish to make the postseason but they certainly aren’t out of the conversation yet. At +3000 to win their division, the path to the NFL playoffs isn’t through winning the NFC North; however, grabbing the final wild card spot is more plausible. William Hill currently gives the Vikings +290 odds to so.
Beating the Bears inside Soldier Field under the bright lights of Monday Night Football would be a huge step towards that goal. With the Bucs sitting 7-3 and the Rams and Seahawks tied at 6-3, it’s close to do-or-die mode for Minnesota. Unfortunately, they’ll need to do in enemy territory.
The Vikings are merely 3-14 against the spread at Soldier Field in their last 17 visits, and quarterback Kirk Cousins has yet to beat Chicago since moving back to the Midwest after a short stint in the nation’s capital.
However, road trip’s in 2020 are a bit different than they were previously. The lack of fans may help Cousins & Co. shake the monkey off their back.
Also different from recent seasons is the makeup of this Chicago Bears defense. The Bears may have the No. 4-overall DVOA, but they been vulnerable on the ground at times despite their seventh-ranked DVOA against the run. Without defensive tackle Eddie Goldman disrupting things in the trenches, the Bears have allowed a league-high 39 explosive runs, i.e., runs of 10+ yards. It just so happens that running ball is what Minnesota does best.
But you already knew that if you’ve been playing NFL DFS.
Fourth-year running back Dalvin Cook has back-to-back games with over 220-yard offensive yards, including a 252-yard performance against the Detriot Lions. The bulk of Cook’s yards have come on the ground, as he only has four receptions on five targets during that span. Despite missing a game, the 25-year-old leads the league in rushing yards and touchdowns. To put it bluntly, his 6.0 yards per carry and 10.8 yards per reception is absurd.
Though the Vikings are more comfortable handing the ball to their workhorse back, they also have formidable outside weapons in wide receivers Adam Thielen and rookie Justin Jefferson. Catching up to NFL speed quickly, Jefferson has turned into one of the league’s most explosive wideouts. His average of 18.4 yards per reception is good for second in the NFL behind only Nelson Agholor
Where the Vikings really struggle is on defense. Atypically porous, Zimmer’s defensive unit is allowing the third-highest percentage of offensive plays that result in positive EPA.
Chicago Bears
Regardless of the defensive opponent, the Chicago Bears haven’t had an easy time moving the ball in 2020. They rank 27th in Rush Success Percentage and 23rd in Pass Success.
The Bears will be without starting running back David Montgomery, who did not pass concussion protocol after suffering a head injury against the Titans.
Montgomery sidelined means the Bears will turn to Ryan Nall, WR/RB Cordarelle Patterson, Artiavis Pierce, and possibly Lamar Miller in the backfield. Chicago’s front office promoted Miller from their practice squad, but it’s still safe to expect most of the work given to Ryan Nall and Patterson. Though listed as a WR, Patterson has been given rush attempts in every game this season, often while lined up in the backfield; Nall, Pierce and Millier have not.
The Bears’ leading receiver, Allen Robinson, carries a “Q” tag ahead of Monday Night Football. There hasn’t been a lot of offensive success in Chicago, but the little they’ve had is in large thanks to Robinson, who has played a pivotal role in their wins. The veteran receiver has been targeted at least nine times in all but two games, and he’s likely to see even more targets Monday night as the Bears turn to the passing game out of necessity. If he were ruled inactive, Robinson’s absence would be difficult for the Bears to overcome.
Monday Night Football Picks: Vikings vs. Bears
It sounds counterintuitive but playing without David Montgomery may benefit the Bears in this matchup. It ought to force OC Bill Lazor, who recently took over playcalling duties from head coach Matt Nagy, to be creative with unconventional runs and passing plays before the Bears fall behind.
Moreover, the Vikings pass defense is susceptible. For all of his deficiencies, Nick Foles should be able to find success connecting with Robinson and Darnell Mooney downfield.
It’s not fun betting on the Bears, but that’s what I have to do here.
Monday Night Football Pick: Bears +3.5 (-122) at FanDuel
MNF: Vikings and Bears Props
First TD
Justin Jefferson +1100 (William Hill)
Cordarrelle Patterson +1600 (DraftKings)
Player Props
Patterson Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (William Hill)
Sign up at William Hill to get these odds!
Image Credit: Imagn