Monkey Knife Fight MLB Strategy: Monday, July 22nd
Welcome to the weekly Monkey Knife Fight picks article, in which we are going to be doing all the research you need to make the best decisions possible.
If you haven’t checked out Monkey Knife Fight before, it’s a prop-based fantasy sports website with a variety of props contests you can enter. Unlike other articles here on RotoGrinders, we aren’t just giving you the research – we are giving you recommended picks. First-time depositors can use the Monkey Knife Fight promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a deposit bonus of 100% up to $50.
Now, let’s get to the article.
First Prop: CLE @ TOR: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Carlos Santana (+.5) vs Vladimir Guerrero: Total Fantasy Points: This is one of the easiest props on the board here. Santana is by far the better hitter with a .387 wOBA vs LHP compared to Vlad with a .331 wOBA vs RHP. Next, the matchup for Santana is way better considering Vlad is going up against Clevinger, who owns a 1.97 xFIP compared to a guy who owned a 4.5 xFIP and hasn’t pitched in about a year (this doesn’t even account for the abomination which is the Toronto bullpen). Lastly, Santana is batting on the road team in a better lineup spot on the favorite, so Santana is most likely going to get more at bats. Add in that he has the tiebreaker, and this is a lock.
Jose Ramirez (+.5) vs Francisco Lindor: Total Fantasy Points: This one was a little tougher, but both hitters are switch hitters and both have struggled vs LHP this year. Lindor owns a .327 wOBA and .144 ISO vs LHP compared to Ramirez with a .123 ISO and .318 wOBA. overall, this comes down to the tiebreaker for me which Ramirez owns. Take Ramirez.
Jordan Luplow (+.5) vs Oscar Mercado: Total Fantsy Points: This is another simple one, we are getting the better hitter with the Tiebreaker. Luplow owns a .469 wOBA and .380 ISO vs LHP compared to Mercado, who owns a .197 ISO and .361 wOBA vs LHP. Any time you get the better hitter in the same matchup and you get the tiebreaker, you just take it.
Second Prop: BOS @ TB: 2/3 Rapid Fire
J.D. Martinez (+.5) vs Travis d’Arnaud: Total Fantasy Points: First, lets look at pitching in this one. JD has the better matchup against Beeks, who owns a 4.62 xFIP compared to E-Rod, who owns a 4.23 xFIP. Next, JD owns an other worldly .378 ISO and .482 wOBA vs LHP compared to .284 ISO and .357 wOBA for d’Arnaud. Add in that Martinez is batting for the road team and is guaranteed a 9th inning AB and he owns the tiebreaker, and he’s a lock.
Xander Bogaerts (+.5) vs Mookie Betts: Total Fantasy Points: Looking at the numbers this year and the choice is obvious. Bogaerts owns a .294 ISO and .400 wOVA vs LHP compared to .099 ISO and .320 wOBA for Betts. I know that Betts is having an off year and that his numbers last year were a whole lot better, but that doesn’t matter here. Bogaerts is on a tear right now and he is getting the tiebreaker.
Avisail Garcia (+.5) vs Tommy Pham: Total Fantasy Points: This one was a little tougher than the other two in this prop, but the choice to me is obvious simply because of the tiebreaker. Garcia and Pham have similar numbers on the season vs LHP, but E-Rod is a good pitcher and it wouldn’t surprise me if either of these guys ended up with 0 fantasy points. In the case that they tie, Garcia wins. It’s that simple. Take Garcia and move on.
Third Prop: CHC @ SF: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Alec Mills vs Shaun Anderson (+2.5): Total Fantasy Points: We don’t have a large sample size for Mills here in the Majors, but he is absolutely the better pitcher here. Mills is a guy with decent strikeout upside and a low walk rate, while Anderson has one of the lowest K rates in the league and is just an average strikeout pitcher. The matchup also favors Mills, who is going against a team with a .188 ISO and .337 wOBA in the projected lineup compared to the Cubs, who own a .212 ISO and .358 wOBA.. For me, 2.5 points isn’t enough to give up to take Anderson over Mills, so I’m rolling with Mills.
Anthony Rizzo (+.5) vs Alex Dickerson: Total Fantasy Points: Overall here, Rizzo has the better numbers and the better matchup. On the season, Rizzo is hitting .257 ISO and .421 wOBA vs RHP and Anderson owns a horrible 11.4% K rate vs lefties. On the other side, Dickerson has similar numbers this year, but this will not continue and he only has a career 89 plate appearance sample size. Add in that Mills is a decent real life pitcher and Rizzo is getting the tiebreaker, and you go with Rizzo.
Kyle Schwarber (+.5) vs Javier Baez: Total Fantasy Points: To me, this prop comes down to two things: the tiebreaker and the platoon split. Schwarber has both. Baez and Schwarbers numbers have been similar this year, but Anderson struggles vs lefties and the tiebreaker is big in low scoring games (which this should be considering they’re playing in SF).
Good luck on your props today, and if you don’t see them up on MKF, check back later. We will try and keep these up all day (they should only change because of injury news). If any of these props do get taken down, we will try and get a new one up in this article as soon as we can.