Monkey Knife Fight MLB Strategy: Monday, July 29th
Welcome to the weekly Monkey Knife Fight picks article, in which we are going to be doing all the research you need to make the best decisions possible.
If you haven’t checked out Monkey Knife Fight before, it’s a prop-based fantasy sports website with a variety of props contests you can enter. Unlike other articles here on RotoGrinders, we aren’t just giving you the research – we are giving you recommended picks. First-time depositors can use the Monkey Knife Fight promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to get a deposit bonus of 100% up to $50.
Now, let’s get to the article.
First Prop: ARI @ MIA: 2/3 Rapid Fire
Caleb Smith (+4.5) vs Merrill Kelly: Total Fantasy Points: Are you kidding me? this is a ridiculous line here. Smith is the better pitcher here by a wide margin and we are getting 4.5 free points. I get that Kelly has the much better matchup, but Smith is one of the top pitchers on the entire slate and this game is a pick’em. Smith has a K rate 10% higher than Kelly and is beating him in nearly every statistical category. This is one of the biggest free squares I’ve ever seen on MKF. Just take it and move on.
Christian Walker (+.5) vs Ketel Marte: Total Fantasy Points: One of my favorite things to look for on these rapid fire props over on MKF are guys who are similar batters in the same matchup with a low implied team total. This is that type of situation. The Diamondbacks only have an implied team total of 3.75, so there is a decent chance that neither Walker or Marte do much of anything here. Marte does have the much better numbers so far this year, but Walker is a very talented bat, and to me, this is close enough to a toss up that I absolutely want Walker given that he gets the tiebreaker.
Eduardo Escobar (+.5) vs Carson Kelly: Total Fantasy Points: This question is similar to the last question, only we are getting the much better hitter here, in a better batting spot, and he gets the tiebreaker. Kelly has been mashing LHP so far this year owning a .516 wOBA vs LHP, but Escobar is hitting a .457 wOBA vs LHP himself, and we have a long enough track record to know that he is really good. Add in that he is likely batting 3rd in the lineup and that Kelly will probably be down at the bottom of the order, and Escobar is a slam dunk here.
Second Prop: LAD @ COL: Home Run Derby
Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger, & Charlie Blackmon: Over .5 HRs:
If you haven’t already looked at Vegas odds in this game, there is going to be a whole lot of offense here. The total for this game is sitting at 13 as of the time of this writing and we have 3 very talented lefties going against some guys who give up a lot of bombs to opposing lefties. Currently, the HR props for these guys are as follows:
Charlie Blackmon: +240
Joc Pederson: +235
Cody Bellinger: +190
These are some of the highest HR props I’ve seen in any game all season long. With all these guys sitting at around a 50% probability of getting a HR here, the real Vegas odds of them hitting a HR is 87.5%. (Although with the juice already embedded in the lines it’s not actually that high). Take the free money and move on.
Update: Replace Blackmon with Dahl
Third Prop: LAD @ COL: Total Base Race
Joc Pederson, Cody Bellinger & Charlie Blackmon: Over 8.5 Total Bases
This Prop is very similar to the last one, although it pays much better odds then if you simply went with the 1.5 over Home Run Derby Prop. With this prop, there are many different ways that it can actually hit the over. Since total bases don’t just include HRs, these guys can pay off by just getting several hits. Below are the Vegas odds for hits in this game:
Charlie Blackmon: -625
Joc Pederson: -333
Cody Bellinger: -455
So if you were to parlay all three of them getting a hit, you wouldn’t even get back even money in Vegas. Realistically, all three of these guys are probably getting a hit, and the odds of one of them hitting a bomb are really good. Add in the fact that any of these guys can hit multiple bombs, multiple doubles, a 5 hit game, etc. then you have a great prop here that pays 3-1. Hammer it and hope that none of them get injured (although if one of them does, the prop can still hit).
Update: Replace Blackmon with Dahl
Good luck on your props today, and if you don’t see them up on MKF, check back later. We will try and keep these up all day (they should only change because of injury news). If any of these props do get taken down, we will try and get a new one up in this article as soon as we can.