Monkey Knife Fight NFL Strategy: Week 5
Welcome to the weekly Monkey Knife Fight picks article, in which we are going to be doing all the research you need to make the best decisions possible.
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Now, let’s get to the article.
First Prop: ARI @ CIN: 2/2 Rapid Fire
Andy Dalton (+5.5) vs Kyler Murray: Total Passing Yards: This prop was a fairly obvious one. The Bengals may have one of the worst defenses in the league, but the Cardinals are very close, and they have opposite weaknesses. The Cardinals are probably the worst defense in the league vs the pass, and the Bengals are the worst defense in the league vs the run. Currently Vegas has Dalton pegged for 12 more yards than Kyler and you are getting a 5.5 yard advantage with Dalton. Add in that the Cardinals might take a run heavy approach here and Dalton is pretty much a lock to take this part of the prop.
Tyler Boyd vs Larry Fitzgerald (+6.5): Total Receiving Yards: This part of the prop was a little bit harder than the first one as Vegas has these two pegged for around where MKF put the line. Additionally, both these of these WR’s are missing the number 2 guy in their offense. What this really comes down to is a correlation play. I think that since we are taking Dalton in the first part of this prop, it makes sense to take Boyd since their numbers are heavily correlated and Dalton really doesn’t have much of a second option. If Dalton goes off, then Boyd wins this prop.
Second Prop: ATL @ HOU: 2/2 Rapid Fire
Matt Ryan vs Deshaun Watson (+30.5): Total Passing Yards: According to Vegas, Ryan is pegged for around 35 more yards than Watson, so they are in agreement for me in this pick. While Watson may get a better matchup here, Ryan has a propensity to put up yards in droves and I think the game script favors Ryan here. The Texans are favored in this game, and Ryan will probably be forced to air the ball out later on in the game. Take Ryan here.
Carlos Hyde vs Devonta Freeman (+1.5): Total Rushing Yards: Much like with the first part of this prop, the game script favors Hyde here. With the Texans likely leading late in this game, I think that Hyde will probably get the ball much more often than Freeman. Currently Vegas has Hyde pegged for around 60 yards, while Freeman is pegged for around 48 yards. I think Hyde is the obvious play here as Freeman will likely be a lot more involved in the pass game here.
Third Prop: TB @ NO: 2/2 Rapid Fire
Teddy Bridgewater (+70.5) vs Jameis Winston: Total Passing Yards: To me, this is way too big of a number for me to take Winston. He is getting the worse match up and is giving up 70 yards here to Bridgewater. Additionally, Tampa has one of the best run defenses in the league here and it is fairly likely that Bridgewater will be forced to air the ball out a little bit against a team that just gave up 500 yards to Jared Goff last week. To me, this is a great line here that you need to take advantage of.
Michael Thomas (+5.5) vs Mike Evans: Total Receiving Yards: This one is another correlation play that I really like. If Bridgewater goes off its pretty close to a guarantee that Thomas will go off. Thomas has one of the largest target shares of any WR in the league and is pegged for around the same amount of yards as Evans according to Vegas. Evans may be matched up against Lattimer this week, who has given up the most receiving yards to opposing WRs, but I still think that Thomas is the clear pick here.
Good luck on your props today, and if you don’t see them up on MKF, check back later. We will try and keep these up all day (they should only change because of injury news). If any of these props do get taken down, we will try and get a new one up in this article as soon as we can.