NBA Best Bets for Friday: It Ain't Over Til It's Under
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Why Unders, You Sicko?
I get it. Unders aren’t as fun to sweat. They’re difficult to root for if you’re watching the game. But that’s the point!
Everyone likes overs, and sportsbooks know that. Especially as sports betting legalization continues to spread across the country, more and more casual players are entering the space. That means more money on the overs. Betting unders is one of the best edges in the game if you can stomach them.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Under 217.5 (-110 on Fanatics)
This has the makings of a slow, ugly slugfest. Both of these teams were in the top five in points allowed per game last season. Boston was 2nd in defensive rating, while Miami ranked 9th.
Miami was 29th in pace last season and played at the slowest pace in the league in their first game. Boston was 20th in pace last year and played a slow one against New York on Wednesday.
The Celtics were efficient on offense in 2022-23, but they might not get enough possessions for it to matter in this one. The first team to 100 points might win tonight.
Josh Giddey Under 16.5 Points (-120 on DraftKings)
There was a clear pecking order with this Oklahoma City offense last season between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams. When all three were on the floor, SGA led the way with a 32.67% usage rate, Giddey was second at 24.64%, and Williams was third at 17.57%. That might be in flux.
The Thunder’s first game flipped that on its head, with Williams and Giddey both around 25% usage and SGA down to 17% when all three were on the court. Chet Holmgren is now in the mix, and he had a 23.02% usage rate in the 14 minutes he shared with the trio. SGA dominated the ball when one or both of Giddey/Williams were off the court and still led the team in overall usage rate.
This team just has a lot of capable offensive players. We didn’t even mentioned Lu Dort and Cason Wallace. There is a decent chance Giddey isn’t a 25% usage rate player this season. Cleveland led the league in defensive rating and points allowed per game last season.
Season Record
- Game Picks: TBD
- Prop Picks: TBD
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