NBA Daily Grind Down: Tuesday 2/26

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-02-28 01:47:39

The RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down article is going to give you an in-depth analysis on every game each night (3 games minimum). This article will give you defense vs. position rankings and make notes on where you can exploit these matchups.

Another day, another dollar, another Grind Down. Tonight there are 8 games on the schedule, but three of them are potential blowout games. These situations are always tough because the players all have great individual matchups but may end up sitting out most of the second half. Check out what our advice is on these games along with some matchups you can take advantage of tonight.

NOTES:

1) Defense vs. Position rankings are how well a team defends against a certain position. The ranking is for the team that it is listed under, NOT the opponent.
2) Rankings are as follows: 30 is the worst defense against a position, 1 is the best.
3) Last 10 Game Data is collected at the start of each week. It will be updated each Sunday for the upcoming week.

Golden State @ Indiana – 7:00 pm EST

• This is an interesting game between a great offense and a great defense. Golden State ranks in the bottom third of the league at every position which is good news for the Pacers. My favorites for tonight are George Hill, Paul George, and Roy Hibbert. Hill is a cheap option with decent upside, George will still get his full minutes even though Granger is back, and Hibbert should have an advantage inside without Bogut playing.
• On the other side, the Pacers have excellent defensive rankings so it’s hard to like anyone on the Warriors unless you can get them at a discount. If you are desperate to take someone here, Stephen Curry is always a decent option and David Lee will likely see some more production his way with Bogut out.

Orlando @ Philadelphia – 7:00 pm EST

• Orlando really struggles to stop opposing Point Guards and Centers. I love Jrue Holiday in this spot tonight, especially since he will be going up against the likes of Moore and Udrih. He went for 14 points and 13 assists last time these teams met and I expect an even bigger game this time around. I also like the matchup for Spencer Hawes. While Thaddeus is now back, Hawes is still the starting Center and is extremely affordable on most sites.
• Surprisingly, Philadelphia struggles against the same two positions as Orlando: Point Guard and Center. I am not a huge fan of E’Twaun Moore because of the addition of Beno Udrih is cutting into his time. I think they will both play well, but only take them if you can really get them cheap. However, I do like the matchup for Nikola Vucevic. Great matchup against the 25th ranked Sixers and his salary is much lower thanks to back to back bad games.

Sacramento @ Miami – 7:30 pm EST

• It’s pretty sad when your best defensive rank for the season is 22nd. Sacramento is just terrible on the defensive side of the ball and while this normally means good things for their opponents, I would be careful taking any Heat players because this one could get ugly fast. Vegas has the line at -15 for the Heat so the stars may be sitting the entire fourth quarter.
• The Heat on the other hand are very good defensively and the only player I would take a shot on here is DeMarcus Cousins. The Heat are average against Centers and aren’t a great rebounding team. I don’t recommend taking him, but could see him having a decent game.

Brooklyn @ New Orleans – 8:00 pm EST

• As you can see from their rankings, the Nets haven’t been as good defensively over the last 10 games. This is one of those tricky games and New Orleans is actually favored to win. I like the matchup for Greivis Vasquez who is really playing well right now and could find some holes in the defense that is ranked 25th against PG’s in their last 10. I could also see Robin Lopez having a decent game against his twin brother because no one knows Brook’s game as well as he does right?
• The three areas to target against New Orleans defense are PG, SF, and C. Deron Williams is playing better of late and does have some past success against the Hornets. He could make a good play for the right price. Gerald Wallace is a bit of a wild card and I would stay away from him except for in large field leagues just due to his inconsistency. Finally we have Brook Lopez, I don’t love him tonight just because of his recent 4th quarter benchings, but he does have a good matchup.

Cleveland @ Chicago – 8:00 pm EST

• This game could also get out of hand fast as the Cavs will be without their star Point Guard Kyrie Irving. If they can manage to keep it close, there are plenty of options to like on the Bulls. Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer, and Joakim Noah all have above average matchups and the absence of Taj Gibson only means more minutes for all three of them. This just comes down to whether or not you think the Cavs can stay within 10 of the Bulls.
• The Bulls have a great defense, but in fantasy basketball sometimes value can outweigh the matchup. With Kyrie Irving out tonight, the door is wide open for Shaun Livingston and Dion Waiters to have big games. I would probably say to go with the cheaper route of the two, but if they are similarly priced, take Waiters.

Milwaukee @ Dallas – 8:30 pm EST

• This game has the highest Over/Under of the evening which means there should be plenty of points scored for both teams. Milwaukee has been the worst team against Centers all season long, but that doesn’t mean much for us since the Mavs don’t have a reliable Center. I would target O.J. Mayo who will have a size advantage over Monta. Dirk Nowitzki also is an interesting play with the Bucks being 26th against PF’s in their last 10 games.
• Dallas has some holes in their defense as well, particularly at the SG, SF, and PF positions. On the Bucks those positions are filled by Monta Ellis, Mbah a Moute, and Ersan Ilyasova. My favorite of the bunch is Ilyasova as he has had 30+ fantasy points in five of his last six games and I expect the Bucks to attack Dirk in the pick and roll.

Minnesota @ Phoenix – 9:00 pm EST

• Minnesota makes my job much easier with their rankings. They are clearly bad at defending PG, SG, and PF and good at defending SF and C which makes sense considering Kirilenko and Pekovic play those two positions. That being said, there is nothing not to love about Goran Dragic tonight. He is on fire lately, playing at home, and has a great matchup. I wouldn’t trust the likes of Jared Dudley or Luis Scola though.
• Now onto the Suns defense. They have struggled against PG’s and SF’s but have been the absolute worst in the league at defending opposing PF’s. The problem here is that Derrick Williams is the PF for the T-Wolves and he is one of the most inconsistent players in the league. While he is averaging over 28 fantasy points in his last four, I expect him to put up between 20-25 fantasy points tonight so you can judge whether he is worth taking or not. Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic are also good options.

Charlotte @ L.A.Clippers – 10:30 pm EST

• What is with these potential blowouts on the schedule tonight? While Charlotte has one of the very worst defenses in the league, it’s hard not seeing this one turn into a 20 point blowout. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin have great matchups but could end up playing only 25 minutes. It’s always tough to decide what to do in these situations, but I’ve typically been one to stay away from players in these type of games.
• On the other side, it’s hard to like anyone from the Bobcats even if this one is a close game. Kemba Walker doesn’t play well on the road and goes up against Chris Paul. Although one sneaky pick I could see playing well is Byron Mullens. He is exremely cheap thanks to his inconsistent play and tends to have big games in spots that you wouldn’t think he would play well in.