NBA Daily Grind Down: Wednesday 2/27

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2013-02-28 01:57:53

The RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down article is going to give you an in-depth analysis on every game each night (3 games minimum). This article will give you defense vs. position rankings and make notes on where you can exploit these matchups.

We will look to get back to the grind after a Tuesday schedule that led to some bad advice based on matchups (Spencer Hawes I’m looking at you). Tonight there are 10 games on the schedule which is my favorite amount of games. This means plenty of options at every position and plenty matchups to either exploit including good old Timmy D.

NOTES:

1) Defense vs. Position rankings are how well a team defends against a certain position. The ranking is for the team that it is listed under, NOT the opponent.
2) Rankings are as follows: 30 is the worst defense against a position, 1 is the best.
3) Last 10 Game Data is collected at the start of each week. It will be updated each Sunday for the upcoming week.

Toronto @ Cleveland – 7:00 pm EST

• Toronto has been very strong defensively since the acquisition of Rudy Gay as you can tell by their rankings in the last 10 games. The only position they have really struggled with is PF, but those numbers seem a bit misleading to me as Amir Johnson is really a solid defender. My recommendations for the Cavs without Kyrie tonight are Dion Waiters and Shaun Livingston. Both will be leaned on to score more offensively.
• Cleveland is a team that really struggles defensively and the fact that this will be the second half of a back to back after playing in Chicago last night, I expect their defense to be even worse than usual. I love the matchup for Kyle Lowry and I fully expect a bounce back game from Rudy Gay. I expect the Cavs to play some sloppy basketball that will lead to turnovers and easy buckets for those two.

Sacramento @ Orlando – 7:00 pm EST

• Who would have thought that the Kings would take the Heat into double OT last night? I sure didn’t as I recommended staying away from that game. While the Kings will likely have tired legs, they play the Magic tonight who are also in a back to back situation so I think this will be a close one. That being said, there are plenty of matchups to love for the Magic. The Kings are ranked in the 20’s against every position, but my favorite plays are Aaron Afflalo with the way he is playing and Nikola Vucevic because you can get him at a discount. Also Tobias Harris has been playing well off the bench.
• Vegas has this game as basically a pick em game with the over/under at 206. They expect a high scoring game with no defense and so do I. The weak spots in the Magic’s defense are against PG’s and Centers which happen to be the two positions really playing well for the Kings right now. DeMarcus Cousins and Isaiah Thomas are both very strong plays.

Golden State @ New York – 7:30 pm EST

• Golden State just doesn’t seem to care about defense. Almost every starter on the Pacers last night had a big game and you can expect the same out of the Knicks tonight. Golden State’s best ranking is against Centers but they will be without Bogut tonight and David Lee is questionable so Tyson Chandler could have a monster size advantage. Carmelo Anthony also makes a great play against the rookie Barnes and don’t forget about Raymond Felton. He is really cheap on a lot of sites right now and you saw what George Hill did to the Warriors last night.
• The Knicks on the other hand are very solid defensively, however when you play the Warriors you can’t help but play an uptempo style of game with them. With Lee being suspended, both Stephen Curry and Carl Landry make interesting fantasy plays.

Milwaukee @ Houston – 8:00 pm EST

• This game could break some scoring records. The over/under is set at a solid 220 so don’t expect much defense from either team. The Bucks are the worst team in the league against Centers which leaves Omer Asik with a great opportunity. It also looks like the Rockets will be starting Donatas Motiejunas (had to triple-check that spelling) and he could be worth a shot as he is really cheap. Last but not least, look for James Harden to continue his hot streak.
• Houston is a lot like Golden State in that they are ranked bad against every position because they are more concerned about pushing the ball up the court than playing defense. Even though Ersan Ilyasova put up a dud last night, you have to love his matchup against Motiejunas (again had to spell check) and Carlos Delfino. He is one of my favorite plays of the night. Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis also have solid matchups.

New Orleans @ Oklahoma City – 8:00 pm EST

• There is one sparkling green ranking for the Hornets and guess which position that is? It just happens to be Kevin Durant. While I don’t expect this one to be very close, Durant has a great matchup against the 29th ranked team against SF’s.
• The Thunder are a pretty good defensive team and really play well at home. It’s hard for me to recommend taking any of the Hornets players because I just don’t see the matchups benefiting any of them. If you think this one could be close (13 point spread), then take Durant, if not then stay away from this game and hope the Thunder play like they usually do.

Detroit @ Washington – 8:00 pm EST

• This game should be an interesting one as both teams are struggling to stay in games on most nights. Detroit’s defense hasn’t been anything special this season, especially against big men. For whatever reason, it’s tough to take Emeka Okafor, but he has put up at least 22 fantasy points in each of his last 6 games and will get plenty of minutes guarding Monroe. I also like the matchup for John Wall, if he can get in the open court he should have a monster game.
• On the Detroit side of things, the most favorable matchups go to Jose Calderon and Greg Monroe. We still don’t know the status of Brandon Knight for tonight’s game, but Rodney Stuckey could be a good value play if Knight has to sit again.

Dallas @ Memphis – 8:00 pm EST

• Dallas has been winning games, but it certainly hasn’t been because of their defense. They have some old players on their team and just aren’t getting it done defensively. I love the matchup for Zach Randolph tonight against Dirk Nowitzki. I also think Mike Conley should have a solid game against Collison.
• Looking at the rankings for Memphis, it’s hard to find a hole in that defense. They are ranked in the top 7 against every single position for the season which is amazing. Trust the numbers on this one and stay away from the Mavericks players. Better to make the smart choice than to make the risky one.

Phoenix @ San Antonio – 8:30 pm EST

• I hate when the Spurs are playing because they are always either sitting players or blowing teams out, or both. I typically just skip over Spurs games when I see them on the schedule, but looking at the numbers for tonight, Tim Duncan has the dream matchup of all dream matchups. The Suns are by far the worst team against PF’s and this could be a game where Timmy D turns back the clock.
• The Suns are on the second half of a back to back and had to travel to San Antonio. Oh and they are playing the Spurs. I expect them to come out flat and struggle to stay in the game. Avoid the Suns.

Atlanta @ Utah – 9:00 pm EST

• Atlanta only has one glaring weakness on their defense and that’s guarding opposing PG’s, however, the Jazz have an awful committee of PG’s that make it hard to recommend taking any of them. The whole team of the Jazz is similar in that you never know which of them are going to have good games. The only guy I would trust is Al Jefferson, he is almost a lock for 30+ fantasy points at home regardless of his matchup.
• The rankings for the Jazz are a bit of a mystery as they are terrible at defending PF’s and great against opposing Centers. Yet all I ever hear in Utah is how Al Jefferson is the worst defensive player in the league. I think I will trust the numbers on this one. Josh Smith has good success against Utah in the past and a good matchup to boot. Get him in your lineups.

Denver @ Portland – 10:30 pm EST

• Denver is another team that loves to run, yet they actually are pretty decent at defending PF’s. The two matchups that I like in this one are for Nicolas Batum and Damian Lillard. I fully expect Batum to come out and give us a 35+ fantasy point performance tonight.
• On the other side, there are also some good matchups for the Nuggets. We don’t know if Danilo Gallinari is going to play tonight, but even if he does, I think Andre Iguodala will be the better of the two and should be able to continue his hot streak that he is on.