NBA Daily Punts: February 10th, 2014

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2014-02-10 22:02:25

When I start building my lineups, I like to look for a few low salary options that should safely reach value. On most days, there will be a few injuries that open up opportunities for players who don’t typically see big minutes. A change in a teams rotation or a particular match-up can also be the cause of a value play emerging. As we all know, NBA injury news continues to pour in as the day moves along and is not usually made official until close to tip-off, so be sure to sign up for our NBA alerts and check out the RotoGrinders Twitter Feed leading up to roster lock.

I’m going to stick with the new format, separating the three major sites (FD, DS, DK) into their own sections, instead of listing players by position. While the analysis for each player won’t be as heavy, I’ll get into some site-specific plays that I may not have listed in the prior format. I’ve also added a section at the end of each site breakdown called “If/Then” to include players whose value hinges on injury news that has yet to break as of this writing. If you’d like to see me include a site other then FD, DS and DK, post in the comments and I’ll try to include some plays for that site going forward.

In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).

FanDuel

Jeremy Lin – What’s gotten into him lately? He’s been playing really well from a fantasy perspective over his past five games (outside of a dud vs. Phoenix), and he steps into a nice match-up with the T’Wolves tonight. While the perimeter defense might improve with Kevin Martin injured, Rubio and any combination of Chase Budinger, J.J. Barea and Alexey Shved won’t be able to contain the Houston guards. If Lin can keep his hot steak going, he’ll pay off his $5,500 price tag tonight.

Jerryd Bayless – Rajon Rondo has been ruled out of tonight’s game, so we’ll see the Jerryd Bayless and Phil Pressey combo at point guard against Milwaukee. Sitting at $4,300, I like Bayless a lot more then I like Pressey ($3,800), but both guys are in play when Rondo misses time. Brandon Knight has actually done a pretty good job holding opposing point guards in check, but I’d be surprised if Bayless wasn’t able to pay off his price tonight in 27-30 minutes of playing time.

Danny Green – He’s still under-priced on FanDuel at just $4,400, so he’ll most likely find his way onto a good deal of my cash game lineups. Green will offer solid value as long as Manu and Kawhi Leonard are on the shelf, and he gets an extra bump with Marco Belinelli banged up (he’s expected to play tonight). The Spurs will be playing up in pace a bit against Detroit, so they are slightly more appealing in general.

Andre Iguodala – Iggy faces off against the team he started his career with, and he’s already gone off against them once (32 points, 3 reb, 3 asts, 3 steals). The Sixers give up far too many open looks from three point range and if you watched them play against the Clippers last night, they turn the ball over a ton which leads to steals and highlight reel dunks in transition. While the blowout potential is obvious, you’ll still want to have exposure to a few Warriors tonight.

Khris Middleton – Middleton has been really solid lately in big minutes, and he should once again be in line for major minutes again tonight. He’s a hard guy to figure out because he’s had some huge games with extended minutes this season, but he’s also had his fair share of duds in games he’s played 30+ minutes. Caron Butler is still out and both Mayo/Ilyasova are iffy for tonight, so Middleton is a nice option against the Celtics (26th against SF’s over the past 15 days) for $5,100.

Harrison Barnes and/or Draymond Green – Both players would benefit from David Lee sitting out of tonight’s game, and that seems likely given the opponent and the fact that he could benefit from a few extra days of rest with the AS break coming up. Barnes (4,600) and Green (3,500) are both SF eligible, and I expect both of them to pay off their price tags if Lee can’t go. I would roll with Green if I could only play one due to the price difference, and I’ll probably have him paired with Iggy at SF if he starts.

Chase Budinger – He stepped into the starting lineup with Kevin Martin out of action, and he’ll get to face his former team at home tonight. Budinger put up 25.5 FP’s in 29 minutes on Saturday, and I expect him to hit that number again in a better match-up against the high-paced Rockets. If we don’t have anything definitive on Lee before roster lock, I’d feel just as comfortable with Budinger as I would with Draymond Green or Harrison Barnes.

Ronny Turiaf – It doesn’t look like Nikola Pekovic will return before the all-star break, which keeps Turiaf in the starting lineup tonight against Houston. While the match-up with Dwight is tough and he could very easily find himself in foul trouble, I still think he pays off his $4,300 price tag in a fast-paced game. He’d get an even bigger boost if Kevin Love isn’t able to go tonight.

Larry Sanders – He’s questionable for tonight, but if he suits up I like the match-up with Boston. The Celtics have an undersized front-court which should give Sanders a better shot to rack up blocks, and he was playing pretty well before getting poked in the eye on Saturday night. I wouldn’t roster him in a cash lineup, but he’s a nice GPP punt for $5,400 if he suits up tonight.

If/Then

DraftKings

Danny Green – Green will offer solid value as long as Manu and Kawhi Leonard are on the shelf, and he gets an extra bump with Marco Belinelli banged up (he’s expected to play tonight). The Spurs will be playing up in pace a bit against Detroit, so they are slightly more appealing in general. I like the $4,500 price tag tonight.

Jerryd Bayless – He and Pressey are priced similarly on DraftKings as well, and I still prefer Bayless over Pressey even though he’s more expensive and will probably be coming off the bench. If you’re going to play a Boston guard, roll with Bayless for $4,600 instead of Pressey at $4,300.

Brian Roberts – Roberts is consistently under-priced at DraftKings and he’s a safe cash game play even in a tough match-up with Kyle Lowry. He’s now posted at least 28 FP’s in his last three games, which is a solid number for his $4,200 price tag.

Evan Fournier – While Quincy Miller will draw the start for Ty Lawson (with Foye moving over to PG), I still prefer Fournier if I’m deciding between the two. Fournier has flashed major upside in big minutes with Lawson on the shelf, and I like him a lot for just $3,400 even in a tough match-up with the Pacers. Even if this one turns into a blowout, Fournier won’t be affected by it. Especially on a site with a 3PT bonus, I’d be shocked if Fournier didn’t pay off his salary.

Draymond Green – There’s not a whole lot to say here; if David Lee sits out, Green becomes one of the top value options of the night for just $3,200. He’ll allow you to pay up for some top-tier players and will be one of the most popular cash game plays of the night if Lee is ruled out.

Chase Budinger – He stepped into the starting lineup with Kevin Martin out of action, and he’ll get to face his former team at home tonight. Budinger put up 28.75 FP’s in 29 minutes on Saturday, and I expect him to hit that number again in a better match-up against the high-paced Rockets.

Boris Diaw – Tiago Splitter has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which makes Diaw a great play for just $3,500 against the Detroit front-court. The Spurs will need to play a bit bigger to match-up with the Pistons big three, so that coupled with Splitter’s absence should lead to extended run for Diaw. He’s one of my favorite cash game plays of the night and he has center eligibility on DraftKings.

Gerald Wallace – Rondo won’t play tonight, so we could see Wallace get another start at shooting guard against the Bucks, who can play big when they want to. Wallace put up 42 FP’s in his last start with Rondo on the shelf, and while I’m not counting on that type of performance, I do think he pays off his $3,700 price tag tonight.

Jermaine O’Neal – If Andrew Bogut is ruled out, O’Neal will be one of the most popular plays at center tonight. He’ll do battle with an inferior Philly front-court and should have absolutely no trouble paying off his $3,500 price tag as long as he plays 25-30 minutes. We might not have word on Lee/Bogut until all of the other games are underway, so try to give yourself an option to pivot out of O’Neal if possible.

If/Then

DraftStreet

Evan Fournier – No Ty Lawson for the Nuggets tonight, so Randy Foye will slide over to PG while Quincy Miller starts at SG. While Fournier won’t get the start, he’s still a very nice option for only $8,118 as he should be called upon for around 30 minutes of playing time. The match-up against the Pacers obviously isn’t ideal, but Fournier doesn’t need a huge game to pay off this price. While I actually like Fournier on DK for cash games, I’d only use him on DS in a GPP.

Jerryd Bayless – Bayless is about 2.5K more expensive then Phil Pressey, but I’m still more inclined to play Bayless since he’s clearly the stronger offensive player. It would be nice if he was able to draw the start, but he’s expected to come off the bench and should still find himself somewhere around the 20 FP mark, which is a solid output for the price in cash games.

Quincy Miller – Miller is probably drawing the start tonight in order for the Nuggets to match-up with either Lance Stephenson or Paul George, so he could end up getting a nice number of minutes tonight. The match-up is obviously tough, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t get to around 15-17 FP’s, which is okay for his $5,476 price tag.

Brian Roberts – He’s not a sexy play, but for under 8K he’s a pretty safe cash game play even in a tough match-up with Kyle Lowry. Roberts has exceeded 23 FP’s in each of his last three games, which I would be very happy with in a cash game lineup. Tyreke Evans status for tonight is up in the air, and if he sat out it would give Roberts a nice boost in value.

Corey Brewer – Brewer sits at $8,316 tonight in a match-up with the Rockets, and I expect him to pay off that number in a very fast paced game. Kevin Martin absence should lead to a slightly higher level of playing time/production from Brewer, as his minutes are now more secure. Chase Budinger is also priced at right around the same level, but I’d feel more comfortable with Brewer if I had to decide between the two.

Boris Diaw – Tiago Splitter has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which makes Diaw a nice play for just $8,282 against the Detroit front-court. The Spurs will need to play a bit bigger to match-up with the Pistons big three, so that coupled with Splitter’s absence should lead to extended run for Diaw. He’s one of my favorite cash game plays if you’re punting the forward spot.

Timofey Mozgov – This play is relegated to strictly GPP’s, but Mozgov has pretty big upside thanks to his $6,857 price tag against Indiana. He could be called on a bit more to bang around in the post with Roy Hibbert, and in the last match-up with Indiana, Mozgov posted 26.75 FP’s in just 24 minutes. Mozgov can be a fantasy point per-minute guy at times, and if he plays somewhere in the 25 minute range tonight, he should be able to pay off this price tag fairly easily.

If/Then