NBA Daily Punts: January 13th, 2014
When I start building my lineups, I like to look for a few low salary options that should have no trouble exceeding value. On most days, there will be a few injuries that open up opportunities for players who don’t typically see big minutes. A change in a teams rotation or a particular match-up can also be the cause of a value play emerging. As we all know, NBA injury news continues to pour in as the day moves along and is not usually made official until close to tip-off, so be sure to sign up for our NBA alerts and check out the RotoGrinders Twitter Feed leading up to roster lock.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500). I’ll typically make a note of which site a particular player is best suited for.
Guards
Iman Shumpert – In case you haven’t watched the Phoenix Suns play this year, here’s a quick summary; they like to run. If their opponent isn’t prepared to play fast and can’t run up and down the court with them, they can be a very tough team to beat. The Knicks aren’t as used to playing at that speed, so they’ll need Iman Shumpert to play big minutes to keep up with the guard tandem of Goran Dragic and Gerald Green. Shumpert has been seeing considerable playing time over the past few weeks and rarely sees fewer then 30 minutes, and he’s stepped up with some big-time performances over that span. When his 3-point shooting is on, he can rack up fantasy points quickly with his ability to block shots and collect steals. He’s also a above-average rebounder for his position, so there’s a lot to like with Shumpert tonight. His price has risen on a few sites, but he’s still sitting at just $4,600 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which is a price tag he should pay off tonight. I also like his price on DraftDay, StarStreet and FantasyFeud.
Brian Roberts – This pick is all about opportunity, which Roberts should have plenty of with both Jrue Holiday and Tyreke Evans dealing with injuries. As of this writing, Evans is still a game-time decision, but Roberts would pick up even more value if he can’t go. In his first two starts, Roberts hasn’t been very impressive and his numbers have been lacking in basically every area, but he played well as a starter last season and it’s only a matter of time before he posts a big game. With the Spurs struggling a bit with the PG spot and this being the second night of a B2B, it’s hard to believe that Roberts won’t pay off his $4,200 price tag on FD, and his SG eligibility there is a nice added bonus. He’s also priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings and is under 10K on DraftStreet, where I’ll be rostering him with confidence tonight.
Gerald Green – Although he’ll have Iman Shumpert shadowing him for most of the night, I still like Green to meet value tonight against the Knicks. With Bledsoe out of action, Green has stepped back into the starting SG role and is counted on as one of the team’s best scorers alongside Goran Dragic in the back-court. The Knicks as a team have been pretty bad against the SG position this season (28th on the year) and haven’t been much better lately (22nd over the past 15 days), so if Green is still underpriced on your site of choice ($5,400 on FD, $4,500 on DK, $9,436 on DS), he’s a nice option in what should be a close game.
Also receiving consideration: Randy Foye, Marco Belinelli, D.J. Augustine, Giannis Antetokounmpo,
Forwards
Kawhi Leonard – After posting one of his best games of the season last night against Minnesota, Leonard will try to follow it up on the second night of a B2B with Danny Green out of the lineup and Manu Ginobili still questionable. If Manu also misses tonight’s game, Kawhi would pick up a bigger role offensively and he’s always a threat for multiple steals/blocks with a solid rebounding total. Leonard is priced at just $5,500 on FanDuel at the SF spot, which is extremely thin tonight, making Leonard one of the top plays at the position. He’s also just over 11K on DraftStreet, which also puts him in play for me.
Al-Farouq Aminu – Aminu would get an even bigger boost if Tyreke Evans is ruled out tonight, but he’s a nice play regardless for just $4,400 on FanDuel, $4,700 on DraftKings and $9,636 on DraftStreet. While he benefits more when the front-court players miss time with injuries, Jrue Holiday absence still opens up a few extra minutes for him and his length makes him a nightly double-double threat when he’s playing 30+ minutes. If Evans can’t go, he’ll have no trouble crossing the 30 minute threshold and will be in almost all of my FanDuel lineups either way, as the $4,400 price tag is too good for me to pass on.
Kris Humphries – Brad Stevens has been messing with his front-court rotation due to Jared Sullinger lingering injury and inability to stay out of foul trouble, which has landed Kris Humphries in the starting lineup. In his last three games as a starter, he’s played at least 30 minutes in each game and has averaged 10.7 points, 10 boards, 2 assists, 2 blocks and 1.3 steals over that span. Against the Houston front-court, he’ll be able to post similar numbers, but foul trouble is a possibility if he’s asked to cover Dwight down low. However, it’s tough to predict foul trouble and for just $4,200 on FanDuel and $4,700 on DraftKings, it’s certainly a risk worth taking.
Also receiving consideration: Khris Middleton (if he starts), Tobias Harris, Channing Frye, Jae Crowder (on DraftStreet if Shawn Marion sits), Kenyon Martin ($3100 on DraftKings, also center eligible)
Centers
Enes Kanter – Marvin Williams left Utah’s shoot-around this morning with an illness, and apparently had to visit a doctor immediately after leaving the court. That doesn’t bode particularly well for his status tonight, so Enes Kanter would presumably enter the starting lineup and he can be a very useful fantasy player when he gets extended run. He’s posted double-doubles in each of the past four games that he’s played at least 27 minutes, which gives you an idea of what to expect tonight if he gets the start. The Denver front-court isn’t as fun to pick on as last season, but they can still be exploited and I expect Favors and Kanter to have success in the paint tonight.
Patrick Patterson – This pick is geared towards DraftKings, where Patterson is center eligible and he’s priced at just $4,300. Pat Pat has played well since coming over from Sacramento, and has filled a void off the Raptors bench since Tyler Hansborough has been out with an injury. He’s scored at least 23.75 DK points in four of his last five games, and posted a total of 39.5 in his last game. Now that he’s established himself in the rotation, he should start to see some extra playing time and if that comes tonight, he could vastly outproduce his salary against the Milwaukee front-court. While they now have their two top post defenders in Larry Sanders and John Henson, this still isn’t a particularly scary match-up. Milwaukee is 21st against power forwards this season (Patterson’s true spot), but they’re 25th against the position over the last 15 days.