NBA Daily Punts: January 24, 2014
When I start building my lineups, I like to look for a few low salary options that should safely reach value. On most days, there will be a few injuries that open up opportunities for players who don’t typically see big minutes. A change in a teams rotation or a particular match-up can also be the cause of a value play emerging. As we all know, NBA injury news continues to pour in as the day moves along and is not usually made official until close to tip-off, so be sure to sign up for our NBA alerts and check out the RotoGrinders Twitter Feed leading up to roster lock.
I’m going to stick with Monday’s format, separating the three major sites (FD, DS, DK) into their own sections, instead of listing players by position. While the analysis for each player won’t be as heavy, I’ll get into some site-specific plays that I may not have listed in the prior format. It seems like people were more in favor of this format, but any feedback is appreciated!
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Ramon Sessions – He’s just $100 over the BBB salary threshold, but Sessions is still worth the $5,600 price tag tonight. The match-up isn’t great, but Felton hasn’t looked as good defensively as of late and Sessions will once again see around 35 minutes of playing time. He’s a safe cash game play that should end up around the 25-30 FP mark tonight.
Patrick Beverley – Memphis isn’t typically a team I target with guards, but I like the price on Beverley tonight since he’s been playing well since returning from an injury. He’s not going to score 20 real life points very often, but he can contribute nicely in rebounds/assists and is always a threat for multiple steals and blocks with the way he defends. Like Sessions, he’s a guy you can trust in cash games if you need to save cap at the PG spot. I’d rather pay up for Augustin at $6,500, but the production may not be much different from a salary standpoint.
Phil Pressey – Avery Bradley and Jerryd Bayless aren’t going to suit up, which leaves the backcourt duties to a combination of Rondo, Pressey and Chris Johnson (as well as some Jeff Green at the SG spot). He’s a much more appealing play as the starting PG (since he struggles to score), but I have a hard time believing he won’t be able to pay off his $3,700 price tag.
Manu Ginobili – This one is pretty simple; with Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green out, Manu should be able to see a little extra court time and he’s a guy that can rack up FP’s quickly when he’s on the floor. The match-up with Atlanta is pretty nice and he’s still priced right around $5,000.
Louis Williams – The Hawks are dealing with a number of injuries right now, which should open up playing time for quite a few of the role players on this team. Williams will presumably start at SG tonight with Kyle Korver shifting to SF, and I like him to exceed value for just $4,000 as long as he can crack the 25-minute mark against the Spurs this evening.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – Have you seen the size of this kid’s hands? He is rightfully nicknamed the “Greek Freak” and he’s actually been playing fairly consistent minutes in the games that he’s able to stay out of foul trouble. He’s my cheap GPP play of the night at SG (priced at $4,600), as this match-up seems like one that he can take advantage of. Going out on a limb and predicting a 30+ point night for Giannis, which could easily blow up in my face.
Andre Iguodala – This selection is more about the price then the player.. Iggy’s priced has dropped down to $5,400 tonight, and considering this tilt should be one of the best games to target, why not take a guy that’s underpriced and should see anywhere between 30-38 minutes? Iguodala hasn’t been great lately but this could be a nice spot for him to turn it around.
Gerald Wallace – He was GPP gold the other night, and hopefully he can follow that up with another nice game tonight against the Thunder. Wallace started in the last game and is expected to do so again tonight, and for just $3,900, there might not be a better value option at SF.
Ryan Kelly – Kelly is still criminally underpriced on FanDuel, sitting at just $4,300 in a match-up with the Orlando Magic. He’s averaging around 23 FP’s over his last five games, and he could easily exceed that tonight if he can continue playing big minutes.
Derrick Williams – The biggest beneficiary of the Rudy Gay and DeMarcus Cousins injuries, Williams should see all the run he can handle tonight. Indiana is obviously not a team people like to target very often, but for the price ($4,200), it’s hard to imagine him not meeting value tonight. Don’t be surprised to see him cross the 35 minute mark as long as this one stays somewhat competitive.
Jason Thompson – Most of what was said about Williams also applies to Thompson. He’ll see a nice bump in playing time and he’ll be needed to tangle with the likes of Roy Hibbert and David West. If I had to choose between the two, I’d lean towards Williams. Thompson is actually $300 more expensive then D-Will at $4,500.
Amir Johnson – It’s the Sixers. Everyone is in play.
Mike Scott – Scott will benefit from the injuries to DeMarre Carroll and Pero Antic tonight, and should finally play somewhere around the 30 minute he deserves. He’s a really fun player to watch and it seems like all he needs to produce is the opportunity, which he’ll get tonight against San Antonio. I’d play Scott before I’d count on any of the other Hawks potential injury replacements (Lou Williams, Gustavo Ayon).
Gustavo Ayon – He will probably draw the start at center with Pero Antic out, and for minimum price it’s hard to argue with rolling him out (in GPP’s) if you really need to punt the center spot. Ayon is tough to trust in cash games on FD, so I’d avoid him in H2H or double-up formats. I’d expect him to play somewhere around 25 minutes tonight.
Tyson Chandler – Chandler is about the only healthy big man the Knicks have left, and he’ll be needed to defend the red-hot Al Jefferson. The price on him is still very appealing ($5,000), and he’s the only center in the bargain bin baller price range that I would consider tonight.
DraftKings
Patrick Beverley – He’s right at the $4,500 BBB limit on DraftKings, and still seems like a fairly safe play at this price. Memphis is obviously tough against opposing point guards (opposing teams in general), but he’s not a guy that counts on scoring NBA points for his fantasy success.
Brian Roberts – Not a sexy play anymore, but Roberts should still get the job done if you’re just looking for 25 FP’s at the end of your lineup, he’s a nice guy to plug in. He gets to take on the defense of Brandon Jennings tonight, which most of us know can be non-existent at times. Don’t use him in GPP’s, but he’s a fine cash game play.
Louis Williams – Lou Will should draw the start at SG with Korver moving to SF in the absence of DeMarre Carroll, and I’d be very surprised if he didn’t return value for just $3,700. On a site that awards a 3PT bonus and doesn’t deduct for missed shots, how can you not be intrigued by him?
Mike Dunleavy – With Luol Deng out of a town and an injury to Kirk Hinrich, Dunleavy will be a safe bet for big minutes in the near future. He’s got a ton of upside on a site that awards a 3PT bonus, and he’s actually been contributing in other categories recently as well. There is a lot to like with Dunleavy at just $4,400.
Marco Belinelli – With Leonard and Green out of action, Belinelli and Manu should see a little extra run over the next few games. This is probably my favorite spot for Belinelli among the major sites, given the fact that he can get hot from downtown and could easily rack up 20 NBA points if he does.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – He’s burned me a few times lately, but it’s still too hard for me to ignore that $4,100 price tag. Alphabet is my favorite GPP play among the guards (or forwards) in this price range, and I’m calling for a 35+ point night for the Greek Freak on DraftKings. Just be wary that he’s also got the potential to leave you with a big fat zero.
Khris Middleton – I doubt I’ll ever list two Bucks back-to-back again this season, but it could actually make sense tonight. Middleton is priced at just $3,800 tonight and if he gets the start tonight, he should pay off that price tag tonight. Keep an eye on Twitter/Lineup Alerts later on to check on his status.
Gerald Wallace – Wallace posted a huge game against Washington his last time out, and should be in the starting lineup again tonight. He’s hard to ignore for just $3,900 tonight.
Ryan Kelly – Another guy that is criminally underpriced, Kelly still sits at just $3,500 and is playing big minutes in the LA front-court as of late. He takes on the weak Orlando bigs tonight and will have absolutely no problem outperforming his salary. Get him in your lineup.
Josh McRoberts – His price has risen over the last few days, but he’s still in play for $4,500 tonight. He doesn’t have GPP upside anymore at this price, but I don’t really mind him as a cash game play. I’m a little scared of the Knicks going small and the Bobcats following along, which could result in fewer minutes for McBob, but that’s still just speculation on my part.
Jason Thompson – With Cousins and Gay on the shelf, Thompson should be in for a ton of playing time tonight. I actually prefer him slightly over McBob in cash games, and he does carry a bit of GPP upside as well. The match-up isn’t great and the Kings could very easily get blown out, but they don’t have many other options tonight.
Kris Humphries – It’s tough to trust the Boston front-court on a nightly basis outside of maybe Jared Sullinger, but Hump isn’t actually in a terrible spot against OKC. I would be a little hesitant to trust him in cash games, but he’s one of the better GPP options at forward tonight.
Gustavo Ayon – Even as the probable starter with Antic out, it’s still hard for me to trust Ayon tonight. However, it’s really hard not to consider him for minimum price, even in a tough match-up against the Spurs.
DraftStreet
George Hill – He’s been pretty much invisible lately in terms of fantasy output, but he’s still playing significant minutes on a very good Pacers team. While the chance of a blowout is fairly high tonight in Sacramento, Hill is still in play for $9,331 tonight.
Marco Belinelli – Belli is under $9K tonight, and considering there isn’t much to like in terms of mid-priced guards on DraftStreet, Belinelli could help you afford some of the top-tier players tonight. He’s in for big minutes with Leonard and Green on the shelf.
Louis Williams – He’s got a really nice price on DraftStreet at just $6,713, and he’ll most likely be a popular play tonight with Carroll out. Like I mentioned above, he should draw the start at SG and would have no trouble paying off this price if so.
Phil Pressey – I don’t really like his price tonight and I probably won’t have a ton of exposure to him, but he should still be in for around 30 minutes tonight with Bradley and Bayless out of action. Pressey could top the 20 FP mark, but he’s hard for me to trust tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo – He’s probably a GPP only option tonight, although his price is down to $8,167 which makes him somewhat appealing in cash games as the last player or two in your lineup. I like the match-up with Cleveland and Alphabet is always capable of a big game with his ability to contribute everywhere.
Gerald Wallace – Wallace is probably my favorite value forward on DraftStreet tonight at just $7,820. Coming off his big game against the Wizards, Wallace should start again tonight and would presumably play 30+ minutes against the Thunder this evening.
Ryan Kelly – As is the theme on basically every site, Kelly is underpriced and in a nice match-up. The Lakers will be able to compete against Orlando and I’d be surprised to see Kelly come up short of value tonight.
Gustavo Ayon – He should get the start with Antic out, and is priced at just $6,188. The match-up with San Antonio is tough, but he’s not a bad option for the price.