NBA Daily Punts: March 17, 2014
Happy St. Patrick’s Day to the Grinders community! Tonight is a great chance for us to take in some NBA action while sitting back with some green brews, and the NBA was kind enough to grace us with a fairly appealing seven game schedule. I’m going to exclusively focus on FanDuel pricing for today’s article, and I’ll highlight my favorite punts at each of the five positions on the floor.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
Point Guards
George Hill – $5,100 (Top Pick) – Hill did a number on the Sixers in the last meeting between these teams, dropping a 14/9/6 line in 39 minutes on the floor. The Pacers are at home tonight and are listed as 19.5 point favorites at the time of this writing (which is certainly a concern), but opposing starters rarely need four quarters to hit value against the 76ers. Taking Hill is a great way to get some exposure to this game without spending too much on a game that will almost definitely get out of hand after halftime.
Avery Bradley – $5,100 – Rajon Rondo will not play in the second game of a back-to-back tonight against Dallas, and Bradley is expected to start in his place. He’ll likely share the PG duties with Bayless and Pressey, but he should be able to top the 30 minute mark for the first time since returning from his ankle injury. While I would rather roster Hill for the same price, Bradley should still return value at this salary.
Jerryd Bayless – $4,800 – Brad Stevens could elect to start either Phil Pressey ($3,500) or Bayless alongside Avery Bradley, but Bayless should still see 30+ minutes regardless. He’s listed as a PG on FanDuel but he’ll probably play more off the ball tonight, and a match-up with Monta Ellis is not one to shy away from. The Mavericks are ranked 22nd against SG’s over the past two weeks.
Shaun Livingston – $4,300 – I’m not usually big on targeting any member of the Nets, but Livingston has been a serviceable punt play over the past few weeks. He’s still a pretty big part of the rotation and has played at least 31 minutes in each of the last three games, and if that streak continues tonight he should be able to pay off this price in a game against a Phoenix team that likes to play fast. A 207.5 over/under and a 3.5 point spread makes the Nets as a team more appealing then usual.
Shooting Guards
Joe Johnson – $5,300 (Top Play) – This is a pretty nice price for Johnson in a game that should be close and relatively high scoring. He’s posted at least 24 FP’s in six of his last seven games, and he’s been consistently clearing the 30 minute mark over that time span. He could have to deal with P.J. Tucker for a good chunk of this game which doesn’t necessarily bode well for him, but the mix of low price and upside here makes me willing to take the plunge on him.
Gerald Henderson – $4,900 – Another price point play, but I’m not as confident in Henderson’s chances to surpass 30 FP’s as I am with Joe Johnson. The Duke alum has played three games since returning from an injury, and while he hasn’t played particularly well, he’s still getting regular minutes even with Gary Neal emerging as a nice option for Steve Clifford off the bench. The Hawks have turned into one of the faster paced teams in the league and Henderson has the advantage in a match-up with Kyle Korver (who is also a viable punt play for another $100). The Hawks are 24th against SG’s over the past 15 days and 22nd against the position on the year.
Willie Green – $3,600 – Jamal Crawford won’t return tonight and Darren Collison is listed as doubtful with a stomach bug, which leaves Green as the last man standing at the SG spot for the Clippers. He played 36 minutes last night and should come close to that total again as long as Collison is ruled out. If Collison does end up suiting up, there is absolutely no reason to play Green (unless for some reason you are targeting players with the last name of Green on St. Patty’s day).
Small Forwards
Paul Pierce – $5,500 – We don’t usually see Pierce priced this low, so I’m going to take advantage of the discount in this match-up. He’s been tough to roster for most of this season since Jason Kidd tends to take it easy on his veterans, but this game should stay close throughout and Pierce has a pretty nice match-up against the revolving door of PF’s in Phoenix. $5,500 is a solid price for a player of Pierce’s caliber. Just as a disclaimer, I’d feel more comfortable paying the extra $300 for DeMarre Carroll in cash games.
There aren’t any other options at SF that I feel comfortable recommending, but I won’t argue if you want to use either Mike Dunleavy ($5,000) or Shawn Marion ($4,800) as cash game punts. Evan Turner ($4,600) is also an option as a deep GPP play.
Power Forwards
Kris Humphries – $5,000 – It seems like as soon as we start to trust Humphries, he falls back to irrelevance. I’m going against my better judgement and recommending him here even though his minutes aren’t all that secure, but he has been productive lately even with only 22-27 minutes on the floor. I typically only target punt plays that I can safely assume will top the 30 minute mark, but Hump only needs about 25 FP’s to pay off this price, which he has topped in each of his last five games.
Other (GPP-only) options at Power Forward: Terrence Jones ($5,500), Andray Blatche ($4,900), Marvin Williams ($4,000)
Centers
Roy Hibbert – $5,000 (Top Play) – I’m afraid of using Hibbert in cash games tonight because this game could get out of hand quickly and the Sixers don’t have anyone for him to defend down low, but this match-up oozes upside if he gets the minutes. The Sixers are among the worst rebounding teams in the league and also lead the league in allowing blocked shots, two things Hibbert does well when he’s on the floor. He’s the cheapest of all of the Pacers starters, but the blowout factor does make me a bit wary of him.
J.J. Hickson – $5,500 – After struggling in his first meeting against the Clippers, Hickson exploded with 17 points, 12 boards and 5 assists in the last meeting between these two teams. While the Clippers are ranked 1st against centers over the last two weeks, they have allowed a number of big games to opposing big men and Hickson doesn’t need to replicate his 17/12/5 line to pay off this price tag. He’s a tough guy to trust in a cash lineup, but I like the upside he offers if this one stays close. You’ll want some exposure to this game seeing as it’s projected to be the highest scoring of the night.
Andrew Bynum – $5,000 – I’m honestly shocked that I am even considering Bynum at $5K, but the match-up/revenge factor make it an interesting selection. Bynum has had success in his first few games as a Pacer, posting 18.5 and 28.3 FP’s despite not playing more then 20 minutes in either game. As you all know, the Sixers are ranked near the bottom of the league in basically every defensive category, so they will be a popular target as a team despite the fact that they are favored by almost 20 points.