NBA Daily Punts: March 21, 2014
The weekend is finally upon us and if you’re getting tired of watching college basketball already, the NBA has been kind enough to grace us with a 10-game schedule. The 76ers and Lakers are in play, which opens up a bevy of options on the Knicks and Wizards at both ends of the salary spectrum, and those two games will probably be the most popular targets of the night. In early injury news, Wesley Johnson will not play and will be replaced in the starting lineup by Kent Bazemore, but both Nick Young and Steve Nash are expected to return to the lineup tonight. Marcin Gortat, Jonas Valanciunas and James Anderson are all game-time calls.
I’m not going to stick to a particular site tonight; instead, I’ll go position by position and note which site(s) each player is best utilized at. If a player meets BBB status on multiple sites, he’ll have prices for both sites (FanDuel and DraftKings) listed after his name.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
Point Guards
Jose Calderon – $5,200 on FD – Calderon and the Mavericks take on the Nuggets at home in a game with a 220 over/under, so this match-up should be one of your top targets of the night. Both teams like to push the pace and neither is particularly imposing defensively, so why not take the point guard on a team projected to score 114 points? Calderon almost always ends up right around the 30 minute mark, and while the GPP upside might not be there, he’s a nice cash game punt if you’re just looking for 25-30 FP’s. While he’s not a threat to go off for 50 FP’s, he’s also not a player that will saddle you with a single digit effort.
Shaun Livingston – $4,400 on FD, $4,100 on DK – He’s another guy that has been consistently hovering around the 30 minute mark, and he’s actually exceeded that number in each of his last five games. The Boston back-court is tough defensively, but Livingston isn’t counted on as a scorer and he should still be able to contribute a little bit across the board with a nice height advantage over Bradley/Rondo. He’s surpassed 20 FP’s (DK scoring) in his last six games and I’d be surprised if he didn’t keep the streak going tonight.
Shooting Guards
Kent Bazemore – $5,000 on FD, $4,000 on DK – Bazemore will get the start at SF against Washington with Wesley Johnson out of action, so expect him to be one of the more highly owned value plays of the night. He’s been very useful when getting starter’s minutes this season, and he should be able to pay off his price on both FD and DK with 30+ minutes. Trevor Ariza isn’t the lockdown defender he used to be, and the Wiz are actually ranked 28th against SF’s over the last 15 days (20th on the season).
Eric Gordon – $5,200 on FD – I was rolling him out consistently the past 7-10 days when he was sitting under $5K, but even at this price I think he still offers solid GPP upside. The Hawks have turned into one of the faster paced teams in the league, and Kyle Korver defense isn’t all that intimidating, and a 35-40 FP game is certainly not out of the question for Gordon even with Anthony Davis expected to return. If Davis ends up sitting out again for some reason, Al-Farouq Aminu and Alexis Ajinca would become viable punt plays on basically all sites.
Xavier Henry – $4,300 on FD, $3,500 on DK – Henry has played well recently without receiving consistent playing time, and Wes Johnson’s absence makes him an interesting GPP selection tonight. It’s unclear how the return of Nick Young will affect him, but the upside for Henry is definitely there (particularly on DK). I would feel much more comfortable playing Kent Bazemore in a cash game, but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see Henry outscore him, so I’ll take a GPP flier on him in a few lineups with the hope that Johnson’s minutes aren’t eaten up by the combo of Bazemore and Young.
Small Forwards
J.R. Smith – $5,600 on FD – He’s $100 above the BBB cutoff, but I’m mentioning him here because I like him considerably more then the other options priced in this range. He and the Knicks travel the short distance to Philly tonight in a game with a 210 O/U, and Smith has played well against the Sixers in three meetings this year (averaging roughly 17 pts, 5 asts, 3 reb). He’ll obviously be a popular selection due to the match-up, and I’ll be rostering him heavily on FD tonight.
Shawn Marion – $5,200 on FD, $10K on DS – I’m not expecting another 40 FP effort tonight, but Marion is a fairly safe cash game play in this match-up. While he’s not much of a factor in the offense, his playing time is safe and this game should be up and down all night, and the 220 O/U puts almost all of the starters on both teams into play. If you can pay the extra $400 for Smith, do it, but Marion is a serviceable option if not.
Kyle Singler – $4,300 on FD, $4,100 on DK – It would be nice if he could do a little more with the huge amounts of playing time he receives, but the minutes alone put him in play as a cash game punt. He’ll give you a 35 FP game every now and then, but he’ll fall somewhere around the 20 FP mark on most nights, give or take a few points.
P.J. Tucker – $4,300 on DK – This is more of a price point play for me, because when Tucker is on, he can absolutely blow this price tag out of the water. I’ll definitely want him in a GPP lineup or two, and it’ll give you a nice leg up on the field if he has one of his big games. The Pistons are 25th against SF’s over the last 15 days and are 27th against the position on the season.
Martell Webster – $3,500 on FD, $3,700 on DK, $5,753 @ DS – Webster has been right around the 30 minute mark over his last handful of games, and while he hasn’t done much with those minutes, the LA defense should provide him with a good chance to pay off his prices across the three major sites. Gortat’s absence would benefit him a bit as well, and the Wiz could opt to play smaller tonight against a Laker team that was playing Wes Johnson and Kent Bazemore at PF not too long ago.
Power Forwards
Drew Gooden ($3,500 on FD, $3,700 on DK, $8,980 on DS) and Trevor Booker ($3,900 on FD, $3,400 on DK, $7,950 on DS) – Marcin Gortat is questionable for tonight’s game after missing last night’s contest against Portland, and if he sits it would open up a ton of value in the Wizards front-court. Not only would Gooden and Booker be counted on more then usual, but they take on a Lakers team that’s ranked dead last against both PF’s and C’s on the season. Gooden is my preferred play between the two, but playing both guys is definitely not out of the question if Gortat doesn’t play.
Amare Stoudemire – $5,300 on FD, $4,500 on DK – A match-up with the 76ers makes Amar’e one of the most appealing PF’s of the night, especially if we get word early on that Gortat will play (which seems unlikely to be fair). Regardless, Amar’e takes on one of the league’s weakest front-courts and he’s put up two nice games against the 76ers already this year. However, Tyson Chandler didn’t play in either of those games, and his presence tonight should eat into Stoudemire’s production. With that said, I still think he’s a nice option at PF, and pairing him with Drew Gooden would be a very effective way of punting the PF spots if you don’t want to pay up for The Brow or Melo.
Boris Diaw – $3,900 on DK – This price tag just looks a little too low to me, especially if you’re considering him in a GPP. Diaw has flashed pretty big upside at times this year and it’s certainly possible that Pop decides to take it easy on Duncan/Parker tonight, not to mention he’s in a plus match-up against the Sacramento front-court. Throw him in a GPP lineup or two and you’re in great shape if he throws up one of his 35-40 FP games at this price tag.
Centers
Henry Sims – $4,400 on FD, $4,300 on DK – The Sixers will need Sims size down low to bang with Tyson Chandler in the post, and he’s put up a few nice games in tough match-ups already in the past month. I prefer him to Pero Antic in GPP’s since he’s shown the ability to put up 40 FP’s (if everything is going right), and Philly really doesn’t have any other defensive stoppers down low. He’s still not in good enough shape to play 35+ minutes a night, so he’ll have to be efficient in his 23-28 minutes against Chandler if he’s going to pay off his price tag tonight.
Pero Antic – $4,300 on FD, $3,900 on DK – Diaw is actually center eligible on DK as well, and I’d be more comfortable playing him then Antic over there. Pero is probably the only center eligible player on FD I’d consider besides Henry Sims, especially considering the New Orleans center situation is in flux unless they decide to put Anthony Davis there tonight. Antic is a match-up problem for most big-men because he can play around the perimeter and he’s a pretty good jump shooter, so he’s in play if you need to go cheap at center.