NBA Daily Punts: March 3rd, 2014
I’m going to stick with the recent format instead of listing a bevy of picks from each site; I’ll list my favorite value play at each position on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It seems like listing 15 FanDuel value plays is a little unnecessary if only 3 or 4 of them will be in the majority of my lineups, so I’ll try to stick to the most viable options on a seven game night.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Point Guard – Jordan Farmar – There aren’t too many options in this tier (Chalmers, Roberts and Hinrich seem like the only other possibilities), and Farmar has shown a much higher ceiling then any other sub-$5500 point guards. He’s coming off a big game against the Kings his last time out, where he dropped 30 and 7 in just 29 minutes on the floor. Kendall Marshall is still the starting point guard, but the two have been splitting time pretty evenly as of late, which eats at both players value. I won’t have Farmar in any of my cash game lineups (I’m paying up at both PG spots as of this writing), but I think he has better upside then guys like Chalmers or Brian Roberts in a match-up with Damian Lillard and the Blazers. He’s obviously risky because the playing time isn’t as secure as we’d like, but if you’re looking for a big game from a PG in this price range, Farmar is your best bet.
Shooting Guard – Tyreke Evans – It’s about time, Monty. ‘Reke has finally found his way into the starting lineup the past few games, and he’s been taking advantage of his extra time on the floor. He’s played at least 36 minutes in both starts and while he disappointed in his first start against Phoenix, he had a big game against the Clippers on Saturday with Anthony Davis dealing with foul trouble all night. Evans won’t be sitting at $5400 for much longer, so hop on while you still can. The match-up with Sacramento (his former team, nonetheless) is about as nice as we can ask for, and he will be on a good number of my teams tonight. I also don’t mind his teammate Eric Gordon at just $4800, and Kent Bazemore will continue to be a popular value pick at $4400. Gordon has been inconsistent, but his price is at a level where the risk is worth it. Bazemore has been seeing big minutes with the Lakers and should be able to pay off his price tag in a fast-paced game against Portland.
Small Forward – Wesley Johnson – When he’s playing 35+ minutes a game, Johnson is a very safe play and with the Lakers going small, that should continue tonight. He’s played 38 and 36 minutes the last two and has averaged roughly a fantasy point per minute in those games, but he doesn’t need to play at that level to pay off his price. At a tough SF spot, Johnson sits at just $4,900 and as long as the minutes hold up, he’ll pay off that number against Portland. I also don’t mind J.R. Smith, Paul Pierce or Kyle Singler if you’re going cheap at both SF spots.
Power Forward – Ersan Ilyasova – I can’t blame you if you want to play Trevor Booker at minimum price even in a tough match-up, but I don’t find myself going in that direction tonight. Amar’e Stoudemire could be a sneaky option at $3,700 if he starts against a big Pistons lineup, but onto Ersan. He’s in a match-up with the Jazz that should be close and could be sneaky high-scoring, which makes him one of my favorite GPP plays at PF tonight. His personal match-up isn’t great, but his minutes are becoming somewhat consistent and in a close game, I’m hoping he gets to the 30 minute mark. I can’t really trust him in a cash game lineup but as far as a tournament play, I’ll have some exposure to him and Brandon Knight on the Milwaukee side hoping that this one goes down to the wire.
Center – Timofey Mozgov – My hope here is that since the Timberwolves boast two solid post options, Mozgov will see some extra run to try to defend the paint. Defense is the reason he was moved into the starting lineup in the first place, and I can see Mozgov posting a solid fantasy total with 28+ minutes even in a tough match-up with Nikola Pekovic. He hasn’t seen a minutes bump as a starter so far which makes me hesitant to use him in a cash lineup, but the upside is there at this price in a GPP. Alexis Ajinca is another nice option at $4,200, and I actually think his upside is higher if he can stay out of foul trouble.
DraftKings
Point Guard – Jordan Farmar – Just like on FanDuel, there aren’t many appealing options below the BBB cutoff on DraftKings. He’s priced at $4,300 tonight on DK, and his FD analysis also holds true here.
Shooting Guard – Kent Bazemore – Bazemore has been playing a boatload of minutes for D’Antoni over the last five games, and there’s no indication that will stop tonight. Even when he’s not playing 35+, he’s still doing enough to pay off his price tag (which now sits at $3,900), and I don’t mind the match-up with Portland all that much and even if this game turns into a blowout, Bazemore could see those junk time minutes. MarShon Brooks is $200 cheaper and has been producing at a similar level, and he’s probably a safer bet to see the junk time minutes if this game gets out of hand.
Small Forward – Kyle Singler – Brooks and Bazemore are also both SF eligible, but if I’m choosing between Singler and Brooks in a cash game, I’m playing Singler. He’s playing consistent minutes and the match-up with the Knicks is actually pretty solid, so he’s the safer play with Xavier Henry returning tonight (which should eat into the LA wing-players minutes a bit, tough to say who’s at this point). If you can pay the extra $500 for Wesley Johnson (who is priced outside of BBB range), I would make that move if it doesn’t hurt you somewhere else.
Power Forward – Trevor Booker – I honestly don’t like this play a whole lot, but for $3,300 it’s hard to argue with a player in Booker’s role right now. While he has a tough match-up with Z-Bo, the Wizards should need him down low to be able to contain the tough Memphis front-court. If he crosses the 25 minute mark, he will pay off this price tag.
Center – Alexis Ajinca – Ajinca has been starting at center alongside The Brow over the past few games, and he’s been flirting with 30 FP’s in four of his last five games. At $4,100, you’ll be very happy with a 30 FP performance, but I’m a little worried about foul trouble if Monty Williams puts him on DMC. He picked up 4 fouls in 14 minutes against the Suns and fouled out on Saturday against the Clippers. I’m still hopeful that he plays 28-30 minutes and he’ll be a threat to cross the 30 FP mark if so.