NBA Daily Punts: November 29, 2013
When I start building my lineups, I like to look for a few low salary options that should have no trouble exceeding value. On most days, there will be a few injuries that open up opportunities for players who don’t typically see big minutes. A change in a teams rotation or a particular match-up can also be the cause of a value play emerging. As we all know, NBA injury news continues to pour in as the day moves along and is not usually made official until close to tip-off, so be sure to sign up for our NBA alerts and check out the RotoGrinders Twitter Feed leading up to roster lock.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either Fanduel (5500), Draftstreet (9000) or Draftkings (4500). I will typically make a note of which site a particular player is best suited for.
Guards
Jordan Farmar – With how well Farmar has been playing over the last week, he should become a bigger part of this Lakers rotation in the near future. Farmar is averaging just under 20 minutes a game so far this season, but we’re seeing that number start to creep up with each big performance. He’s had over 30 FP (Fanduel scoring) in three of his last four without playing more than 26 minutes in any game. While we are still dealing with small sample sizes, the Pistons haven’t been great at defending PG’s this season (ranked 21st against the position) as neither Brandon Jennings or Rodney Stuckey are stout defenders. Farmar’s 4500 salary on Fanduel is enticing, but I like him the most at DraftKings (a site with a 3PT bonus) for just 4100. I’m usually never into taking players who won’t play at least 32-35 minutes a night, but Farmar racks up points quickly running the Lakers second unit.
Eric Gordon – You should all know by now that match-ups with the Sixers equal tons of fantasy goodness. They don’t really defend any position all that well and give up (and score) a ton of points, so they are always a team to exploit. Philly is the second worst team at defending SG’s so far this season, and Gordon put up almost 30 FP’s when these teams met in the middle of November. Gordon is priced under 9K on Draftstreet and he is my favorite play of all the guards under 10K over there tonight. The former Hoosier averages almost two steals per game, and should meet or exceed that total against the 76ers who have committed the third-most turnovers this season. Don’t expect much in terms of other peripheral stats (rebounds, assists), but Gordon’s scoring and steals should be enough to make him a worthwhile selection tonight.
Bottom of the Barrel Play
Alan Anderson – Anderson is minimum priced on DraftKings and is dirt cheap on Fanduel and Draftstreet, and this pick also hinges on the health of the Nets guards who have been sitting out (Deron Williams and Jason Terry). If both of those guys are out, Anderson could be a nice GPP gamble against a Houston team that leads the league in PPG. The Nets are going to need to score to have any chance against the Rockets, and Anderson can put up points fast when he’s shooting well and gets an extra boost on sites which award a 3PT bonus. Even if this game turns into a blowout, Anderson should see north of 25 minutes and Houston doesn’t defend wing players particularly well (25th against SG’s, 16th against SF’s). He carries a lot of risk but if Anderson gets hot in this game, he will have no problem paying off his salary on any of the three major sites.
Aaron Brooks – With Jeremy Lin out for the next two weeks, Aaron Brooks is a great option for the minimum price on DK and is cheap everywhere. If Harden can’t go, get Brooks into your lineups, and he could actually be productive even if he comes off the bench if Harden plays.
Other Guards to consider: Gerald Green (if Bledsoe sits), Patrick Beverley, Shaun Livingston, Avery Bradley, Cartier Martin
Forwards
Channing Frye – After a rough start to the season, Channing Frye has come on strong over his last four games and is becoming a big part of the Suns rotation. He’s been playing an average of 27 minutes a game this season, but has just recently started shooting the ball well and you have to love a post player who can shoot the three ball. The Suns don’t have much talent in their front-court so Frye should keep playing significant minutes now that he has confidence in his shot. I wouldn’t count on Frye to match his 25 points from Wednesday night, but a 16 point/7 rebound game (combined with a few blocks + steals) is a realistic expectation.
Brandon Bass – Bass has been one of my favorite value plays of the early season and he’s still probably under priced on a few sites. He’s under 4K on DraftKings and is just 8.5K on Draftstreet. For H2H’s and double-ups, Bass is a safe option who will see 32-38 minutes a night with Kelly Olynyk still on the shelf. He’s a steady rebounder and has been blocking shots at a pretty nice clip, so he can be productive even when he’s not scoring on the offensive end. Bass should top 20 FP’s tonight I think he exceeds value on DK and DS.
Bottom of the Barrel Play
Kenyon Martin – The Knicks take on the Nuggets tonight in Denver, which is interesting because Kenyon Martin spent more time in Denver than he has with any other NBA team, and he’s been in the league for awhile. The former team factor adds a little extra incentive for a player to bring out his best, and Martin has been playing well over his last few games. He’s been starting recently but he rarely plays over 28-30 minutes a night as the Knicks rotate Amare Stoudemire in at PF as well. I wouldn’t roster Martin in cash games but I might throw him in a GPP lineup or two on DraftKings (where he’s minimum priced).
Other Forwards to consider: J.R. Smith (also played for Denver in the past, best used as a GPP play on FD), Josh McRoberts, Marvin Williams, Markieff Morris
Centers
Jonas Valanciunas – Like his minutes, Valanciunas has been very up and down this year and has struggled to consistently contribute for Toronto. I’ve watched some of the Raptors games this year, and I’ve seen them have success feeding the ball to Valanciunas early in games, but then Rudy Gay and Demar Derozan start chucking and the big man falls into obscurity. He’s been averaging about 27 minutes a night, and while he’s a solid contributor defensively, he hasn’t been able to get much going on the offensive end, averaging just 9 PPG. Against an undersized Miami front-court, Val could see 30+ if the Raptors focus on getting him involved tonight.
Jason Smith – There is no team I like targeting better than my home town Sixers. Jason Smith actually started his career in Philadelphia, and carved out a nice bench role for himself which led to him being traded to New Orleans before the 2010 season. He’s worked his way into a starting role this year and has been playing very well alongside Anthony Davis. Both of these guys should have no trouble with the Philly interior; the Pelicans blew out the Sixers (by 37 points) in the first meeting of the season, but Smith still managed to play 21 minutes (the starters were done early, obviously) and posted 8 points (on 4 of 4 shooting), 7 boards and 3 blocks in his limited time on the court. I’m expecting a double-double from Smith tonight since this game should be much closer than the last one between these two teams.