NBA DFS Core Plays LIVE: Friday, March 17th
Andy Means (meansy53), a former Duke basketball walk-on, will be bringing Premium subscribers his top NBA DFS plays to build around on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Everyone’s favorite, Notorious, will be guiding you on Tuesdays and Thursdays. And on weekends, the GPP maestro you all know and love, STLCards, takes the reins.
GENERAL SLATE THOUGHTS
11:00 AM ET: We are getting down to the home stretch of the regular season. The last day of games is April 9th and most teams have between 10 and 12 games left on their schedules. We have a healthy eight game slate on tap tonight and none of the teams are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. Like I mentioned yesterday, this is the time of year when attention to detail in NBA DFS is at its all-time low. Even those that are still playing every day will be focused on March Madness. These are the days that can benefit those that put in extra work, both in terms of research and in terms of roster construction within their lineups.
As usual, we’ll do a quick preview of each team on the slate, we’ll cover the notable injuries, and then I’ll drop back in with any injury updates or tidbits that I find throughout the day.
Philadelphia: — The Sixers have won six games in a row and have pulled even with the Celtics in the loss column. Home-court advantage could be the deciding factor in the second round, so the next few weeks are very important for Philadelphia. Tonight they square off against the Hornets, who are ranked in the bottom 10 in defensive rating and rebounding rate. The Sixers have a massive total (118.5 points) and both Joel Embiid and James Harden project as some of the best spends of the slate.
Charlotte — The Hornets are back to their losing ways, but are stuck in no-man’s land in the standings. They aren’t going to catch the Pistons, Rockets, or Spurs for one of the worst three records in the NBA and they are six wins behind the Magic. Essentially, they can win or lose games the rest of the way and it won’t impact their status in the upcoming draft. Tonight they host the Sixers, who are ranked 26th in pace and eighth in defensive rating. The Hornets don’t project particularly well in the context of tonight’s slate.
Golden State — The Warriors continue to impress with their home/road splits. They are 29-7 at home and 7-27 on the road. Stephen Curry is listed as questionable, but is closer to probable than doubtful for this game. Draymond Green has been suspended for having too many technical fouls, which opens up minutes in the frontcourt. The Warriors draw a favorable fantasy matchup against the Hawks, who are ranked eighth in pace and 22nd in defensive rating. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson are strong tournament plays, while Kevon Looney and Jonathan Kuminga are decent point-per-dollar targets.
Atlanta — The Hawks have underwhelmed this season. They haven’t been particularly good at home or on the road and they continue to hover around .500 in the standings. Tonight they host the Warriors, who play at a fast pace, who have struggled on the road, and who are missing their best individual defender. It’s a good spot for the Hawks and their implied total is 8.1 points above their season average. Trae Young and Dejounte Murray are both strong spends tonight.
Washington — The Wizards have lost six of their last 10 games and are clinging onto the 10th and final playoff spot in the East. They have a tough draw tonight against the Cavaliers, who have arguably been the worst matchup for fantasy production this season. There’s little to no upside in this matchup and the Wizards are expected to be at full strength. This is an easy team to cross off our list of potential targets unless you are MME’ing the slate.
Cleveland — The Cavaliers have struggled on the road this season, but are 28-8 at home and have one of the best defenses in basketball. Tonight they host the Wizards, who are ranked 22nd in pace and 19th in defensive rating. This isn’t the best game environment for fantasy production, but the absence of Jarrett Allen does help a little. Evan Mobley, Donovan Mitchell, and Darius Garland all project as reasonable plays at their respective positions.
Minnesota — The Wolves feel like they are playing better, but perhaps that’s just my brain misleading me. They have lost six of their last 10 games and are one of the many teams in the West that could be in the top six or be out of the playoffs altogether here in a few weeks. Tonight they square off against the Bulls, who have quietly turned into a brutal matchup (16th in pace, fifth in defensive rating). Rudy Gobert is viable on DraftKings if active, Naz Reid is viable if Gobert is out, and Kyle Anderson is always worth a look in large-field GPPs.
Chicago — There are only two teams from seventh to 15th in the East with a positive point differential on the season and the Bulls are one of them. They continue to lose in spectacular fashion (De’Aaron Fox buzzer beater on Wednesday) and host the Wolves, who are ranked fourth in pace and 10th in defensive rating. The usual suspects are all in play here — Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic. Keep an eye on the status of Alex Caruso, who is listed as questionable.
New Orleans — The Pelicans have lost seven of their last 10 games and would miss the play-in tournament if the regular season ended today. Injuries have really hurt this team, as they were top three in the West for the first few months of the season. Tonight they square off against the Rockets, who are surprisingly trying to win games. This is an elite matchup for fantasy production and I’ll be looking to get exposure to both CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram.
Houston — The Rockets have won two games in a row and have passed the Pistons in the process. They now have the second worst record in basketball. I typically stay away from teams that are tanking, but Houston has made an effort to tighten their rotation and give their starters huge minutes. The matchup against the Pelicans isn’t great, but ownership should be very low on all of the Rockets in tournaments.
Memphis — The Grizzlies have won six of their last 10 games, but they are still without three of their key players in Ja Morant, Steven Adams, and Brandon Clarke. They have struggled on the road this season, but get to face the tanking Spurs tonight. This is one of the best possible matchups, as San Antonio is dead last in defensive rating. There’s a lot to like here — you can make a case for Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, and Xavier Tillman.
San Antonio — The Spurs have been more competitive than expected the last few games, but they did just blow a big lead to the Mavericks, who were playing without Luka Doncic, Tim Hardaway, and Kyrie Irving. I think the tank is still on. They have a mediocre matchup tonight against the Grizzlies in what should be a fast-paced game. The Spurs should have some of their guys back from injury tonight, which hurts the appeal of the team as a whole.
Boston — The Celtics have only won five of their last 10 games and are in danger of losing the two seed in the East. They’ll look to bounce back tonight against the Blazers, who are ranked in the bottom eight in pace, defensive rating, and rebounding rate. While the projected pace isn’t ideal, the Celtics should have no problem being efficiency on the offensive end of the floor. There aren’t any standout price points, so I would reserve Celtics players for large-field GPPs.
Portland — The Blazers have lost four games in a row and are getting dangerously close to being eliminated from playoff contention. They need a win tonight, but that’s a tall order against the Celtics. On the season, Boston is ranked fourth in defensive rating. Damian Lillard is close to matchup-proof, but he’ll have his hands full against Marcus Smart and Derrick White. He’s not a priority for me given how many options we have available tonight.
Dallas — The Mavericks have lost six of their last 10 games and are going to be short-handed once again. Luka Doncic has already been ruled out, while Kyrie Irving and Tim Hardaway are both listed as questionable. We have to take a wait and see approach here, but it could be a great spot for value once again. Jaden Hardy, Josh Green, and Reggie Bullock have stepped up when asked and this is a pace-up game against the Lakers. Christian Wood could also be an intriguing tournament play.
LA Lakers — The Lakers are still without LeBron James and are coming off of a bad loss against the Rockets. They are currently ninth in the West, but they could finish anywhere from fifth to missing the playoffs altogether. Tonight is a big game and they should have everyone other than LeBron available to play. The Mavericks have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season, which bodes well for DFS. Anthony Davis is one of my favorite plays on the board.
And here are the notable injuries for tonight’s slate that can all be found in the Situation Room:
Out
LaMelo Ball
Mark Williams
Cody Martin
Andrew Wiggins
Gary Payton
Andre Iguodala
Jarrett Allen
Karl-Anthony Towns
Naz Reid
Zion Williamson
Jose Alvarado
Ja Morant
Steven Adams
Brandon Clarke
Devonte’ Graham
Romeo Langford
Charles Bassey
Khem Birch
Payton Pritchard
Robert Williams
Justise Winslow
Luka Doncic
LeBron James
Mo Bamba
Doubtful
Questionable
Jalen McDaniels
Stephen Curry (Kerr says he’s likely to play)
Rudy Gobert
Naz Reid
Austin Rivers
Alex Caruso
Keita Bates-Diop
Jayson Tatum
Jerami Grant
Kyrie Irving
Tim Hardaway
Meansy is usually on Core Plays duty on Friday, but he is going to watch Memphis square off against Florida Atlantic. That should be an incredible game and whoever comes out of it will be in a good spot to knock off top-seeded Purdue.