NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (12/4)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2023-12-04 16:38:41

The NBA schedule is a weird one this week thanks to the In-Season Tournament. IST action returns tonight with just 2 games on the schedule. The first quarterfinal clash pits the Celtics against the Pacers in Indiana. Out west, the Pelicans will face the Kings in Sacramento in the nightcap. Thanks to the single-elimination format, I’d expect teams to run close to playoff-style rotations in these games, which makes things interesting from an NBA DFS standpoint.

Without further ado, here’s a deep dive into this 2-gamer on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Preview for Monday, December 4

Boston Celtics

• Pace of Play: 100.4 (22nd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 114.9 (7th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 106 (2nd)

Notable Injuries

• Kristaps Porzingis – OUT

Even with just 2 games on the schedule, this could be a fairly high-scoring slate. Both games have over/unders of at least 234 points. The Celtics are actually 5-point favorites in Indiana tonight, likely due to the uncertain status of Tyrese Haliburton for the Pacers. Boston, meanwhile, is still playing without the injured Kristaps Porzingis. The Celts’ 122.25 total is the highest on the board, and it’s about 6 higher than their season average.

KP’s absence should mean another start for Al Horford in the middle. The veteran has fared quite well with Porzingis off the floor this season (1.00 FP/min.) and he’s topped 30 minutes in 4 of the last 5 games. While point differential is no longer a factor at this stage of the tournament, I do feel confident in Horford’s chances of hitting his full 32-minute projection here with upside for more if the game is close. He’s a strong value on both sites, though Horford is more useful on DraftKings where he has forward eligibility. Derrick White (+3.2%) actually sees the biggest usage boost of any Celtic with Porzingis off the floor, followed by Jayson Tatum (+2.9%) and Sam Hauser (+2.4%). White pops as a nice point-per-dollar play on DK ($6,600), but he’s getting up there on FanDuel ($7,100).

Tatum hasn’t flashed a huge ceiling lately, but a date with the Pacers feels like a good spot to hunt for it. His low $10,000s salaries on DK and FD don’t feel all that cumbersome, and it’ll be even easier to afford him if we happen to get some value on the Indiana side later in the day. Boston should also see some extra usage flow to Jaylen Brown (+2.3% without KP), who’s been steadily productive in 35-36 minutes per game. I’d ordinarily shy away from pairing Tatum and Brown in GPP lineups, but I’m willing to make an exception on this short 2-gamer. Both grade out as solid values in their respective price tiers.

Jrue Holiday (20.2%) hasn’t been a primary source of usage in his first season with Boston, but the minutes are there and he does a little bit of everything. If White is going to pull more ownership at a comparable salary, Holiday makes for a viable pivot in tournaments.

Indiana Pacers

• Pace of Play: 107.1 (1st)
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.7 (1st)
• Defensive Efficiency: 118.2 (30th)

Notable Injuries

• Tyrese Haliburton – QUESTIONABLE
• Obi Toppin – QUESTIONABLE
• Jalen Smith – OUT

Even without Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers exploded for 144 points in a relatively easy victory in Miami on Saturday night. This team ranks first in the league in both pace and offensive rating, while they’re now dead-last in defensive rating. Haliburton and Obi Toppin are questionable to suit up tonight, while Jalen Smith remains sidelined. This is the first game of the night, so we’ll know the statuses of both iffy players pre-lock.

Andrew Nembhard drew the start at the point with Hali sidelined on Saturday. He struggled his way to just 4 points on 1-for-9 shooting from the field, but somewhat salvaged his day with 11 assists in just 23 minutes. It was T.J. McConnell that stole the show, however. McConnell went off for 20 points and 11 assists in 25 minutes off the bench on scorching 10-for-11 shooting from the floor. Neither guard saw a salary hike on DK, so they’ll be smash values again tonight if Haliburton is out. Their salaries dipped a bit on FD, as well, which makes little sense. Nembhard and McConnell will be difficult to fade if Haliburton misses a second straight game.

If Haliburton plays, he’s an interesting way to spend salary at what could be limited GPP ownership. He’s been in amazing form all season long (1.61 FP/min.), and he still grades out well in projections even at these elevated salaries.

Bruce Brown (+4.5%) gets the biggest usage boost on the team this season with Hali on the bench, followed by Aaron Nesmith (+2.8%), Nembhard (+2.8%), and Bennedict Mathurin (+2.5%). Brown would be a borderline core play in the mid $5,000s is Haliburton is out again. Mathurin would make for another alluring salary relief option, though he’d be behind Nembhard and McConnell in terms of priority. Buddy Hield isn’t a safe bet for minutes, especially if his shots aren’t falling. He is still a much better value on FD ($5,700) than he is on DK ($6,500), though I’d only look his way if Haliburton sits.

The minutes for Toppin are rarely bankable, but he has logged at least 34 in 4 of his last 6 games. Toppin is yet another solid midrange value if he plays through a hand injury. If he’s out, Aaron Nesmith is a candidate to start at the 4 and play heavy minutes. He’s not a standout value if the questionable players suit up, however. Myles Turner rarely tops 30 minutes, but at least he’s productive (1.27 FP/min.) while he’s out there. Center is relatively weak tonight, and Turner fits nicely into a more balanced build in the $7,000 range.

New Orleans Pelicans

• Pace of Play: 102.2 (11th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112 (13th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 110.4 (13th)

Notable Injuries

• Larry Nance – OUT
• Matt Ryan – OUT

The Pelicans are off to a solid start this season, though they’re right around the middle of the league in all of pace, offensive rating, and defensive rating. They’re 3.5-point underdogs in Sacramento tonight with a healthy 117-point implied team total. That’s about a point higher than their season average.

CJ McCollum will be back tonight after missing the last game for rest. He’s still generating decent usage (25.3%) on the year despite playing most of his minutes alongside Zion Williamson (30.2%) and Brandon Ingram (30%). I just have no idea how you make a priority out of an $8,000 McCollum on this slate. It doesn’t cost that much more to just get up to Zion, while Ingram is even cheaper than CJ on FanDuel. As a result, McCollum is really just a lower-owned tournament pivot in larger-field stuff. Williamson (1.26 FP/min.) has been consistently stellar of late, and the matchup against a relatively undersized Sacramento frontcourt suits him nicely.

Jonas Valanciunas (1.23 FP/min.) remains as productive as ever, but we’re getting no discount here in the $7,000 range on both sites. However, with Larry Nance out, we’re seeing JoVal consistently playing around 30 minutes with upside for more. I don’t mind Valanciunas as a tournament alternative to Horford at a similar salary. Herbert Jones (15%) generates no usage playing alongside the Pels’ high-scoring starters, but he’s reasonably cheap and should play low-to-mid-30s minutes. There are several Pacers that grade out a bit better in projections in the same range, but Herb will crack my player pool.

Sacramento Kings

• Pace of Play: 102.6 (10th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 112.2 (11th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.5 (19th)

Notable Injuries

• Chris Duarte – QUESTIONABLE
• Alex Len – OUT

The Kings are just 10th in pace so far this season, but they’ve been playing faster since De’Aaron Fox returned to the lineup. I’d expect them to continue to rise the ranks in that regard moving forward. Sacramento has the second-highest implied team total of tonight’s slate (120) as slight home favorites over the visiting Pels.

Fox (31.7% usage, 1.4 FP/min.) is in the midst of another terrific campaign, and he’s more appropriately priced on FanDuel ($10,500) than he is on DraftKings ($9,600). I think he’s close to a priority spend for me on DK, especially if Haliburton sits again tonight. One guy popping as a value in projections early in the day is Malik Monk (1.13 FP/min.), who continues to put up big numbers despite rarely cracking 30 minutes off the bench. His salaries never seem to budge, and he’s particularly cheap on FD ($5,100). Kevin Huerter (0.96 FP/min.) has been more boom-or-bust in a similar role, but he’s also affordable on FanDuel at only $5,000. Nobody likes to roster Harrison Barnes and his 0.66 FP/min. average, but he’s cheap and consistently out there for 30+ minutes. On a short slate, I can get behind Barnes as a value.

Keegan Murray returned from his back injury over the weekend, though he was held to just 23 minutes. I don’t see much of a need to pay for him if he’s capped. The only other King on my radar would be Domantas Sabonis (1.35 FP/min.), though I do prefer Fox among the spend-ups for this team tonight. Sabonis is easier to get to on FD, where he’s $200 cheaper than he is on DK along with PF eligibility.

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