NBA DFS Grind Down: Top FanDuel and DraftKings Picks (1/4)

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2024-01-04 18:57:11

We’ve got just a pair of games on the Thursday NBA schedule on the heels of Wednesday’s 12-game bonanza. What is this, the In-Season Tournament? The Bucks will head to San Antonio as sizable road favorites over the Spurs, while the Nuggets will visit the Warriors in the nightcap.

Below, you’ll find a deeper dive into tonight’s 2-gamer on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Preview for Thursday, January 4

Milwaukee Bucks

• Pace of Play: 104.6 (4th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.8 (2nd)
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.3 (19th)

Notable Injuries

• AJ Green – QUESTIONABLE
• Jae Crowder – OUT

UPDATE: Middleton isn’t on the injury report, so it sounds like he’ll play the second half of a back-to-back for the first time all season. There’s a chance the Bucks take it easy on his minutes here, but I have no qualms with taking shots on Middleton (1.16 FP/minute) in tournaments.

The Bucks lost again to the Pacers last night, which means Indiana has claimed 4 of the 5 meetings with Milwaukee so far this season. The Bucks will be pleased to see someone else tonight when they head to San Antonio for a date with the Spurs. We have Khris Middleton listed doubtful to play the second half of the back-to-back, but we should get more clarity once the team releases its injury report a little later.

We have MarJon Beauchamp projected to start and play 23 minutes here in place of Middleton. Pretty much anybody this cheap with a path to minutes ($3,500 DK, $3,800 FD) will be in play as a value on such a short slate, but there’s nothing safe about him. Pat Connaughton and Andre Jackson are potential pivots away from Beauchamp in GPPs if he’s going to be somewhat popular.

Damian Lillard (+3.3%) has seen the biggest usage boost of any Buck with Middleton off the floor, while Giannis Antetokounmpo (34.2%) predictably leads the squad in that department. Dame projects to be one of the chalkiest players on the slate at his reasonable salaries ($9,300 DK, $8,600 FD), while it’s tougher to cram Giannis into lineups at above $12,000 on both sites. Both of these guys are elite plays in all formats, and I have no qualms with rostering them together in GPP builds on a 2-gamer if you can find the value to make it happen.

Malik Beasley is a middling per-minute producer (0.78), but he’s reasonably priced around the industry and projected for 34 minutes in an exploitable matchup. The Spurs have allowed their foes to shoot 39% from 3-point range this season, which is the second-highest mark in the league. That also bodes well for Brook Lopez, who pops as a particularly strong value on DraftKings ($6,200). Bobby Portis tends to garner more attention on short slates, even in limited backup minutes. Portis does enough while he’s out there (1.06 FP/minute) to still be a viable target, even if he tops out around 20 minutes.

San Antonio Spurs

• Pace of Play: 104.7 (3rd)
• Offensive Efficiency: 105.1 (29th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.8 (25th)

Notable Injuries

• Zach Collins – OUT
• Malaki Branham – DOUBTFUL
• Doug McDermott – OUT
• Charles Bassey – OUT

The Spurs won’t have a full deck tonight with Zach Collins, Doug McDermott, and Malaki Branham all likely to be missing from the lineup. San Antonio is a 9.5-point home ‘dog here, though their 119.5 implied team total is still healthy enough.

Gregg Popovich recently decided to start bringing Keldon Johnson off the bench, which, in theory, clears Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell to handle more usage as starters. When he’s on the floor, Johnson gets more usage, too, spearheading the second unit. He’s routinely still playing around 30 minutes, even off the bench, so I don’t mind Keldon as a potentially contrarian tournament play in the $7,000 range. Vassell doesn’t have the highest floor, yet he’s still popping as a solid point-per-dollar midrange play on both sites.

Branham has been starting, and Tre Jones told the press on Thursday morning that he’ll be starting in Malaki’s spot tonight. As things stand, he’s one of the best cheapies on the slate in the $5,000 range, though I’d expect significant ownership in tournaments as a result. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, as it’s not like we have to fade all the chalk in NBA DFS. We’ve seen Julian Champagnie (0.9 FP/minute) enjoy the occasional big game, but his minutes haven’t been that secure even in a starting role. Even at his sub-$5,000 price points, Champagnie doesn’t project too well.

Jeremy Sochan (0.86 FP/minute) has stagnated in year 2, and most of his ceiling outings have come with Wemby out of the lineup. The Spurs are still keeping Wemby in the 24-26-minute range as he continues to fight off an ankle sprain. That’ll make him little more than a GPP dart throw at $9,500 on FanDuel, but he’s more than capable of paying off that cheap $8,300 DK salary given that elite 1.47 FP/minute production.

Denver Nuggets

• Pace of Play: 99.7 (29th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.2 (8th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 110.5 (9th)

Notable Injuries

• Vlatko Cancar – OUT

The nightcap features a much tighter spread than the first game (DEN -3.5), but it also has the lower over/under. Aaron Gordon returned from injury to play 25 minutes back on New Year’s Day, but Denver limited their starters’ minutes in that blowout win over Charlotte. We’ve got AG projected for 30 minutes tonight, which is enough to make him look like a solid filler play at $5,800 on DK. Michael Porter, however, still looks a little overpriced for his role with Gordon back healthy.

Jamal Murray (27.5% usage, 1.28 FP/minute) is back to playing regular minutes, and he’s quietly been tearing it up of late. We’re not getting a discount here with Murray up over $8,000 on both sites, but I also think there’s room for growth on the 32-minute projection if this game is competitive. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (0.65 FP/minute) is more in play as a cheapie on small slates like this one, but it doesn’t look like he’ll be flying under the radar from an ownership standpoint, either.

Giannis Antetokounmpo may have the better on-paper matchup tonight, but Nikola Jokic (1.8 FP/minute) still makes for a scary fade on a tiny slate. The Nuggets are healthy, though, and it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a true ceiling effort out of the reigning Finals MVP. Jokic should find little resistance here against a painfully mediocre Golden State frontcourt, and I’m happy to look his way in GPPs if Giannis is going to carry the lion’s share of the ownership.

Golden State Warriors

• Pace of Play: 100.3 (27th)
• Offensive Efficiency: 113.9 (13th)
• Defensive Efficiency: 113 (16th)

Notable Injuries

• Draymond Green – OUT
• Gary Payton – OUT

The Warriors picked up a much-needed win over the Magic the other night, but this team is still a game under .500, nearing the halfway point of the season. Draymond Green is still suspended, while Gary Payton just went down with yet another injury that’ll keep him sidelined for a few weeks.

Stephen Curry (1.28 FP/minute) is having another stellar season, and I’d expect him to go overlooked on a slate that features Lillard and Murray in the same price range. Steph doesn’t project as well as the alternatives from a median standpoint, but we’re hunting for ceilings in GPPs. We know Curry brings that to the table. Klay Thompson has been erratic – at best – this season and his minutes have been down of late amid another shooting slump. If Klay isn’t knocking down his open looks, he isn’t giving you much else.

Chris Paul wasn’t too involved in the last game, but he did play 30 minutes in a second consecutive start. His salaries have come up a bit ($6,400 DK, $6,200 FD), but he’s still a useful value, assuming he remains in the starting unit. Brandin Podziemski (1.01 FP/minute) still has a path to around 30 minutes off the bench, so I don’t mind him as a direct pivot away from what could be a more popular CP3.

The Warriors are embracing a youth movement up front with Jonathan Kuminga and Trayce Jackson-Davis now starting together. Kuminga looks like a terrific value at $5,300 on DK despite some minutes uncertainty. TJD has been a revelation (1.12 FP/minute), but the matchup against Jokic is fairly daunting.

However, $5,700 on both sites is still cheap enough to keep Jackson-Davis in play, but there’s obvious foul trouble risk here. As a result, I don’t mind firing a dart with Kevon Looney ($3,900 DK, $4,300 FD) in tournaments. Andrew Wiggins is yet another volatile player in this rotation. He’s affordable at $5,200 on both sites, but good luck predicting what you’re going to get out of him on a night-to-night basis.

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