NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Sunday, May 7
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
We had a couple of unfortunate blowouts in yesterday’s NBA playoff action, so let’s hope for better games today. We have a pair of Games 4 on tap, starting with a matinee affair in Philly at 3:30 ET. The Sixers will look to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole against the Celtics before they head back to Boston for Game 5. The Suns will look to do the same at 8 ET after getting back into their series against the Nuggets on Friday night. Both games today feature close spreads, which should make for a compelling DFS slate.
How should we approach today’s 2-gamer?
Game 4: Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
- Time: 3:30 PM ET
- Series: Celtics 2 – 76ers 1
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: 76ers 119 – Celtics 115
- Game 2: 76ers 87 – Celtics 121
- Game 3: Celtics 114 – 76ers 102
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid (Questionable)
Marcus Smart (Questionable)
Blake Griffin (Questionable)
Boston Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $5,100 | $6,100 | 32.1 | 0.2 | 28.6 | -1.7 | 18% | 4% | 0.89 | -0.06 | 0.88 | -0.08 | 32 | 25.9 | 5.07 | 24.9 | 4.08 | |
| Derrick White | $4,900 | $5,000 | 28.3 | 1.5 | 26.4 | -8.0 | 17% | -3% | 0.93 | -0.31 | 0.93 | -0.35 | 31 | 26.3 | 5.37 | 25.6 | 5.13 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $8,100 | $8,300 | 35.9 | -0.7 | 43.5 | -4.0 | 31% | -5% | 1.21 | -0.09 | 1.17 | -0.08 | 39 | 42.3 | 5.22 | 39.7 | 4.78 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $9,600 | $10,600 | 36.9 | -1.7 | 52.4 | -5.0 | 32% | -3% | 1.42 | -0.07 | 1.37 | -0.06 | 39 | 51.0 | 5.31 | 47.6 | 4.49 | |
| Al Horford | $5,400 | $6,200 | 30.5 | -2.2 | 26.1 | 3.0 | 12% | 3% | 0.85 | 0.17 | 0.85 | 0.22 | 32 | 22.3 | 4.13 | 22.1 | 3.56 | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,200 | $5,700 | 26.0 | 2.1 | 28.0 | 4.0 | 22% | 5% | 1.08 | 0.06 | 1.05 | 0.02 | 27 | 24.7 | 4.76 | 23.9 | 4.19 | |
| Robert Williams | $4,300 | $5,300 | 23.5 | -4.4 | 24.2 | -5.8 | 11% | -7% | 1.03 | -0.07 | 1.08 | 0.00 | 22 | 20.7 | 4.82 | 21.6 | 4.07 | |
| Grant Williams | $3,500 | $4,000 | 25.9 | -7.2 | 18.5 | -5.9 | 13% | -4% | 0.71 | -0.04 | 0.70 | -0.01 | 16 | 10.1 | 2.88 | 9.7 | 2.43 | |
| Sam Hauser | $3,000 | $3,600 | 16.1 | -9.6 | 13.1 | -11.4 | 14% | -4% | 0.81 | -0.54 | 0.79 | -0.44 | 2 | 1.1 | 0.36 | 1.0 | 0.29 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Philadelphia 76ers Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $8,600 | $8,500 | 36.8 | 0.7 | 49.0 | -3.9 | 25% | 7% | 1.33 | -0.13 | 1.26 | -0.13 | 39 | 45.2 | 5.26 | 42.9 | 5.05 | |
| Tyrese Maxey | $6,300 | $6,700 | 33.6 | 1.8 | 31.7 | -1.4 | 24% | 1% | 0.94 | -0.09 | 0.91 | -0.02 | 38 | 30.1 | 4.78 | 29.4 | 4.39 | |
| Tobias Harris | $5,800 | $6,400 | 32.9 | 0.2 | 28.8 | -4.2 | 18% | -1% | 0.87 | -0.13 | 0.87 | -0.13 | 37 | 29.0 | 4.99 | 28.4 | 4.44 | |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,000 | $3,800 | 25.6 | 1.9 | 11.0 | 1.9 | 7% | -1% | 0.43 | 0.04 | 0.43 | 0.04 | 26 | 13.4 | 3.35 | 13.4 | 3.51 | |
| Joel Embiid | $9,800 | $11,200 | 34.6 | -1.6 | 57.3 | -13.0 | 37% | -7% | 1.66 | -0.31 | 1.64 | -0.23 | 34 | 50.2 | 5.12 | 49.2 | 4.39 | |
| De’Anthony Melton | $4,500 | $4,700 | 27.9 | -3.8 | 23.7 | 0.9 | 16% | 2% | 0.85 | 0.17 | 0.86 | 0.18 | 24 | 17.7 | 3.94 | 17.9 | 3.82 | |
| Jalen McDaniels | $3,100 | $3,700 | 23.9 | -12.1 | 19.9 | -15.0 | 17% | -6% | 0.83 | -0.42 | 0.84 | -0.46 | 16 | 9.7 | 3.14 | 10.0 | 2.71 | |
| Georges Niang | $3,200 | $3,600 | 19.4 | -4.0 | 14.6 | -8.1 | 16% | -1% | 0.75 | -0.33 | 0.71 | -0.36 | 6 | 2.8 | 0.89 | 2.7 | 0.75 | |
| Paul Reed | $3,900 | $4,300 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 15% | -7% | 1.11 | -0.21 | 1.20 | -0.28 | 14 | 15.1 | 3.86 | 15.7 | 3.65 | |
| Shake Milton | $3,000 | $3,500 | 20.6 | -12.0 | 17.1 | -6.9 | 18% | -8% | 0.83 | 0.36 | 0.81 | 0.50 | 3 | 2.2 | 0.74 | 2.2 | 0.62 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
The Sixers decided not to show up for Game 3, which was quite curious after they managed to split the first two games of the series in Boston. Philly shot 39% as a team, with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey combining to go just 7-for-30 from the field. Needless to say, at least one of the star guards will have to bounce back in a big way for the Sixers to have a shot at evening the series today. Joel Embiid, however, looked significantly better than he did in his first game back from a knee injury. He’s officially questionable for Game 4, but I’d be quite surprised if he didn’t give it a go.
Embiid’s 29.1% playoff usage is down about 9% from his regular-season average, which is noteworthy. He’s still averaging 1.3 FP/min, but the fact that he’s dealing with that sore knee doesn’t fill me with a bunch of optimism, either. Nikola Jokic is the clear-cut top overall play on the slate with Embiid hobbled, though we are getting about a $1,000 discount to Joel on DraftKings and FanDuel. Still, $9,800 on DK is easier to justify than $11,200 on FD, especially considering we can play multiple centers. Embiid logged 39 minutes in Game 3 after playing just 26 in Game 2, and I’d expect the minutes to be high again today with this being close to a must-win game for the Sixers. He projects well in 34 minutes, but there’s obviously room for upside there. Embiid in GPPs carries obvious appeal, but I plan to prioritize Jokic as a spend.