NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Tuesday, May 2
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
While I might be getting caught up in the moment, this feels like one of the most unpredictable playoffs that we’ve had in a long time. The Sixers were without Joel Embiid last night and were able to go into Boston and beat the Celtics as double-digit underdogs. James Harden hit a huge three at the end of the game and it was really a solid all-around effort. This might afford Philadelphia the luxury of resting Embiid another game. In the other game, the Nuggets put the clamps down on the Suns for the second straight game. It’s going to be tough for Phoenix to win four of the next five games, especially now that Chris Paul is dealing with an injury.
For tonight, we turn our attention to New York and to Oakland. The Knicks are looking to even up the series against the Heat, while the Warriors and Lakers are gearing up for their first game of the series. Let’s get after it.
Game 2: Miami Heat at New York Knicks
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Series: Heat 1 – Knicks 0
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: Heat 108 – Knicks 101
Notable Injuries
Tyler Herro – Out
Jimmy Butler – Questionable
Jalen Brunson – Questionable
Julius Randle – Questionable
Miami Heat Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Vincent | $5,300 | $5,600 | 25.9 | 7.3 | 17.9 | 16.1 | 17% | 7% | 0.69 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.29 | 33 | 25.4 | 4.79 | 23.9 | 4.27 | |
| Max Strus | $4,800 | $4,700 | 28.4 | -5.0 | 20.9 | -2.9 | 17% | -6% | 0.74 | 0.03 | 0.70 | 0.07 | 29 | 16.2 | 3.36 | 15.4 | 3.29 | |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,400 | $9,900 | 33.4 | 10.0 | 42.2 | 7.1 | 25% | -1% | 1.26 | -0.13 | 1.29 | -0.16 | 40 | 50.7 | 5.39 | 50.9 | 5.14 | |
| Kevin Love | $4,700 | $5,300 | 20.0 | -3.8 | 20.4 | 1.8 | 19% | 2% | 1.02 | 0.35 | 0.97 | 0.34 | 19 | 17.2 | 3.66 | 16.4 | 3.09 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $7,800 | $8,500 | 34.6 | 2.6 | 40.1 | -12.1 | 25% | -7% | 1.16 | -0.41 | 1.16 | -0.44 | 35 | 39.5 | 5.06 | 39.3 | 4.63 | |
| Caleb Martin | $5,100 | $5,500 | 29.3 | 1.7 | 20.9 | 1.9 | 14% | 1% | 0.71 | 0.02 | 0.72 | 0.08 | 27 | 16.9 | 3.32 | 17.1 | 3.11 | |
| Kyle Lowry | $4,900 | $5,400 | 31.2 | -1.2 | 26.9 | 16.9 | 16% | 8% | 0.86 | 0.60 | 0.84 | 0.70 | 29 | 24.8 | 5.07 | 23.4 | 4.34 | |
| Cody Zeller | $3,200 | $3,600 | 14.4 | -6.1 | 13.5 | -9.2 | 18% | -11% | 0.94 | -0.42 | 0.94 | -0.31 | 8 | 6.4 | 2.00 | 6.4 | 1.77 | |
| Duncan Robinson | $4,400 | $4,000 | 16.4 | -3.9 | 11.1 | -9.6 | 17% | 1% | 0.67 | -0.55 | 0.63 | -0.51 | 15 | 9.2 | 2.10 | 8.6 | 2.16 | |
| Haywood Highsmith | $3,100 | $3,700 | 18.0 | -13.2 | 12.0 | -10.0 | 12% | 10% | 0.67 | -0.25 | 0.68 | -0.26 | 5 | 2.9 | 0.95 | 2.8 | 0.77 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
New York Knicks Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Brunson | $8,400 | $8,800 | 35.0 | 5.1 | 39.9 | 1.3 | 27% | 5% | 1.14 | -0.11 | 1.11 | -0.12 | 38 | 41.1 | 4.89 | 39.6 | 4.50 | |
| Josh Hart | $5,900 | $5,600 | 32.3 | 10.9 | 28.1 | -0.6 | 12% | 0% | 0.87 | -0.23 | 0.87 | -0.23 | 29 | 22.3 | 3.78 | 22.0 | 3.94 | |
| RJ Barrett | $6,600 | $7,200 | 33.9 | 5.9 | 31.1 | 17.2 | 26% | 6% | 0.92 | 0.30 | 0.87 | 0.30 | 33 | 26.8 | 4.06 | 25.6 | 3.55 | |
| Julius Randle | $6,900 | $7,400 | 35.5 | 46.3 | 29% | 1.31 | 1.23 | 33 | 37.7 | 5.47 | 35.0 | 4.73 | ||||||
| Mitchell Robinson | $5,600 | $6,300 | 26.9 | 6.7 | 25.9 | 1.6 | 10% | -1% | 0.96 | -0.14 | 1.04 | -0.19 | 27 | 23.4 | 4.18 | 24.7 | 3.92 | |
| Immanuel Quickley | $4,600 | $4,400 | 28.9 | -1.6 | 28.2 | -13.2 | 20% | -3% | 0.97 | -0.43 | 0.96 | -0.41 | 23 | 18.8 | 4.08 | 18.3 | 4.17 | |
| Isaiah Hartenstein | $3,800 | $4,600 | 19.9 | -5.5 | 17.4 | -7.4 | 11% | -8% | 0.87 | -0.18 | 0.92 | -0.09 | 21 | 18.9 | 4.97 | 19.6 | 4.25 | |
| Quentin Grimes | $3,400 | $3,700 | 29.9 | -19.4 | 21.3 | -14.8 | 14% | 5% | 0.71 | -0.09 | 0.69 | -0.03 | 21 | 12.6 | 3.71 | 12.4 | 3.36 | |
| Obi Toppin | $5,000 | $5,100 | 15.7 | 15.5 | 13.8 | 18.3 | 19% | 3% | 0.88 | 0.15 | 0.85 | 0.15 | 15 | 12.2 | 2.45 | 11.9 | 2.34 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and this series.
Game Analysis
The Heat were able to pull off another road upset in game one, largely thanks to their defense in the second half. They held the Knicks to 46 points in the final two quarters and got some surprising production from their two point guards. The Knicks were without Julius Randle on Sunday and now have another key player that has been added to the injury report. I feel like we are back in the regular season, as Randle, Jalen Brunson, and Jimmy Butler are all listed as questionable. Tonight’s game features a 6.5-point spread and a 206.5-point total.
Butler is dealing with an ankle injury and may end up being a game-time decision, but it sounds like he is going to give it a go tonight. Would you expect anything less from Butler? As long as he’s active, I see no reason why we can’t target him as usual. The injury concern will help lower ownership and he’s rattled off 49, 63, 73, and 47 fantasy points in his last four games. The Knicks do have a good defense, but Butler has been able to fill up the stat sheet in the playoffs. Just for reference, here are the main beneficiaries with Butler and Herro off the floor this season: