NBA DFS Playoff Primer: Tuesday, May 9
The NBA postseason is finally upon us. We no longer have to worry about players resting, late scratches, and teams trying to lose. For the next couple of months, we get meaningful basketball game after meaningful basketball game. We have decided to combine the Core Plays and the Grind Down into one all-encompassing article for the NBA playoffs. We will break down each slate, sift through the game flow trackers of prior meetings between teams, cover the notable matchups, and provide our favorite NBA DFS targets.
We had two great games on Sunday night and two great games on Monday night. No pressure, Tuesday. The Heat and Lakers were both able to win at home to take 3-1 leads over the Knicks and Warriors. While I wouldn’t say those series are completely over, the Knicks need to be better on defense and on the glass, while the Warriors need to make some shots and get back to the pick and roll against Anthony Davis. We’ll talk more about that tomorrow.
Let’s dive into tonight’s two-game slate.
Game 5: Philadelphia Sixers at Boston Celtics
- Time: 7:30 PM ET
- Series: Sixers 2 – Celtics 2
Previous Matchups
- Game 1: Sixers 119 – Celtics 115
- Game 2: Sixers 87 – Celtics 121
- Game 3: Celtics 114 – Sixers 102
- Game 3: Celtics 115 – Sixers 116
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid – Questionable
Philadelphia Sixers Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $8,800 | $9,600 | 36.8 | 3.2 | 49.0 | 4.7 | 25% | 5% | 1.33 | 0.01 | 1.26 | 0.04 | 40 | 45.5 | 5.18 | 43.0 | 4.48 | |
| Tyrese Maxey | $6,200 | $6,500 | 33.6 | 4.1 | 31.7 | -0.8 | 24% | -1% | 0.94 | -0.12 | 0.91 | -0.06 | 39 | 30.0 | 4.83 | 29.1 | 4.48 | |
| Tobias Harris | $5,500 | $6,000 | 32.9 | 3.3 | 28.8 | -4.6 | 18% | -2% | 0.87 | -0.21 | 0.87 | -0.21 | 39 | 28.9 | 5.26 | 28.5 | 4.76 | |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,700 | $3,800 | 25.6 | 2.9 | 11.0 | 2.0 | 7% | 0% | 0.43 | 0.02 | 0.43 | 0.02 | 26 | 13.0 | 3.50 | 13.0 | 3.42 | |
| Joel Embiid | $9,700 | $10,900 | 34.6 | 2.8 | 57.3 | -8.2 | 37% | -5% | 1.66 | -0.34 | 1.64 | -0.30 | 37 | 54.9 | 5.66 | 54.4 | 4.99 | |
| De’Anthony Melton | $4,600 | $4,500 | 27.9 | -3.6 | 23.7 | -3.3 | 16% | -1% | 0.85 | -0.01 | 0.86 | 0.00 | 26 | 19.0 | 4.13 | 19.3 | 4.28 | |
| Georges Niang | $3,100 | $3,800 | 19.4 | -3.1 | 14.6 | -6.2 | 16% | -1% | 0.75 | -0.24 | 0.71 | -0.25 | 18 | 9.1 | 2.92 | 8.6 | 2.25 | |
| Paul Reed | $3,500 | $4,300 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 12.1 | 3.6 | 15% | -7% | 1.11 | -0.20 | 1.20 | -0.27 | 10 | 10.9 | 3.11 | 11.4 | 2.65 | |
| Jalen McDaniels | $3,000 | $3,700 | 23.9 | -12.1 | 19.9 | -15.0 | 17% | -6% | 0.83 | -0.42 | 0.84 | -0.46 | 5 | 3.1 | 1.03 | 3.1 | 0.85 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Boston Celtics Lineup – DraftKings & FanDuel Salaries
| Player | DK | FD | MIN/G | +/- | FP/G | +/- | USG% | +/- | DK/M | +/- | FD/M | +/- | MIN (P) | DK (P) | DK/$ | FD (P) | FD/$ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Smart | $5,200 | $6,300 | 32.1 | 2.7 | 28.6 | 0.8 | 18% | 4% | 0.89 | -0.05 | 0.88 | -0.08 | 35 | 27.8 | 5.34 | 26.8 | 4.26 | |
| Derrick White | $5,000 | $5,000 | 28.3 | 1.8 | 26.4 | -7.9 | 17% | -2% | 0.93 | -0.32 | 0.93 | -0.34 | 31 | 25.7 | 5.13 | 25.3 | 5.06 | |
| Jaylen Brown | $7,900 | $8,300 | 35.9 | 1.6 | 43.5 | -4.8 | 31% | -7% | 1.21 | -0.18 | 1.17 | -0.17 | 39 | 42.4 | 5.37 | 40.4 | 4.87 | |
| Jayson Tatum | $9,600 | $10,600 | 36.9 | 1.3 | 52.4 | 0.0 | 32% | -4% | 1.42 | -0.05 | 1.37 | -0.01 | 40 | 52.4 | 5.46 | 50.2 | 4.73 | |
| Al Horford | $5,700 | $7,200 | 30.5 | 0.2 | 26.1 | 5.9 | 12% | 2% | 0.85 | 0.19 | 0.85 | 0.27 | 32 | 23.3 | 4.09 | 23.4 | 3.25 | |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,300 | $5,700 | 26.0 | 4.0 | 28.0 | 4.7 | 22% | 3% | 1.08 | 0.01 | 1.05 | -0.03 | 30 | 27.9 | 5.27 | 27.1 | 4.75 | |
| Robert Williams | $3,900 | $4,800 | 23.5 | -5.6 | 24.2 | -7.6 | 11% | -5% | 1.03 | -0.10 | 1.08 | -0.05 | 18 | 16.9 | 4.33 | 17.9 | 3.73 | |
| Grant Williams | $3,300 | $4,000 | 25.9 | -8.8 | 18.5 | -7.6 | 13% | -4% | 0.71 | -0.08 | 0.70 | -0.04 | 14 | 8.2 | 2.49 | 8.1 | 2.03 | |
| Sam Hauser | $3,000 | $3,600 | 16.1 | -9.6 | 13.1 | -11.4 | 14% | -4% | 0.81 | -0.54 | 0.79 | -0.44 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.17 | 0.5 | 0.14 |
The +/- columns show the difference between season averages and the playoffs.
Game Analysis
This series has largely been dominated by the Celtics, yet we are tied at two games apiece heading into Game 5. The Sixers have managed to win two very close games, while the Celtics were on the winning end of blowouts in the other two games. This is obviously an important game in the series, as the winner of Game 5 in a 2-2 situation goes on to win the series 83% of the time. Tonight’s game in Boston features a 7.5-point spread and a 213.5-point total.
Outside of Game 1 when they didn’t have Joel Embiid, the Sixers have had a very consistent rotation in this series. James Harden has averaged 40 minutes per game and that includes Game 2 where he sat the entire fourth quarter. His usage has gone up during the series and he has averaged 54 fantasy points per game. He’s somehow cheaper than he was last slate, yet his pOWN% looks very reasonable. Tyrese Maxey has scored at least 29 fantasy points in three of the four games in this series, but does have a little more volatility than Harden.