NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 12/13/22
Five games on today’s main slate with just a couple questionable players. The Celtics are on a back-to-back but won’t be resting any of the regulars and Robert Williams is getting close but won’t return today.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses. Knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- DeAaron Fox is questionable with foot soreness and if out Davion Mitchell should continue to start while Huerter and the other starters would keep their higher ceilings.
- Jrue Holiday is questionable with an illness and if out Jevon Carter or George Hill would start at PG while Middleton and Giannis would get nice usage bumps and carry most of the offense.
- DeAnthony Melton is questionable with back tightness and if out Milton, Korkmaz, and Thybulle would all help cover his minutes with one of those three likely starting.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- Devin Booker remains out for Phoenix so they could start Dario Saric again with Bridges at SG and Craig at SF. Saric’s last start could have been matchup-based against the Pelicans so against Houston today they may decide to start Shamet or Okogie in a faster-paced game.
- Andrew Wiggins remains out for the Warriors so look for Jordan Poole to continue to start with DiVincenzo, Lamb, and Moody helping at the SG/SF spots behind him.
- Herb Jones is on track to return today so he should get his starting spot back right away with Daniels going back to the bench. Ingram remains out so Trey Murphy should continue to start.
- The Jazz are close to full strength today with only Collin Sexton and Simone Fontecchio out so look for a normal starting lineup with the only unknowns being if Mike Conley comes off the bench again or if they go with Vanderbilt or Kessler next to Olynyk.
- Al Horford and Robert Williams remain out for BOS so Blake Griffin should continue to start at C with Kornet backing him up.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Booker out, most of the Suns’ projected starters are looking like top p/$ plays in a great matchup with Houston. Mikal Bridges ($6,400) saw 39 minutes before OT last game going for over 42 FP and should be extremely busy today filling up the stat sheet in a variety of ways and is a bit too cheap with the usage bump he gets with no Booker. Chris Paul ($7,200) is also at a great price for someone with 40+ FP upside while Deandre Ayton ($8,600) is my favorite p/$ center play of the slate coming off b2b games of 52 and 48 FP. Torrey Craig ($4,800) is also a strong p/$ value play likely to see 30+ minutes and be more involved on offense with no Booker. Dario Saric ($3,800) has too low of a floor for me to consider him in cash games.
- Klay Thompson ($6,900) looks to be back to his normal self with four straight games over 38 FP and this is probably the last chance we can play him for under $7k so he’s a super solid mid-range target especially with Wiggins still out. Jordan Poole ($6,400) and Draymond Green ($6,000) are also at great prices for more cheap exposure to the Warriors while Khris Middleton ($6,900) and Brook Lopez ($6,300) are my favorite guys to get cheaper exposure to MIL.
- If Fox is unable to return today then Davion Mitchell ($4,000) will be back in play for value even though he hasn’t been great the last couple games while Kevin Huerter ($6,000) has been excellent with Fox out going for 36 FP in b2b games and is still at a solid price for 5-7x value upside. Harrison Barnes ($5,600) and Keegan Murray ($4,900) remain cheap and would be in play for me if Fox sits.
- Some other players I like for the price today include DeAnthony Melton ($6,300), Bobby Portis ($6,000), Jalen Green ($6,800), Eric Gordon ($4,400), Jabari Smith ($5,800), Herb Jones ($5,100), Trey Murphy ($6,000), Malik Beasley ($5,000), and Malcolm Brogdon ($5,600).
Looking at DraftKings:
- The Suns are even cheaper on DK compared to FD and I will be starting my cash game lineup with Deandre Ayton ($7,200), Mikal Bridges ($6,100), and Chris Paul ($6,200). Torrey Craig ($4,700) remains pretty cheap as well but is pretty much the same price as FD while those other three have much nicer discounts, especially Ayton and Paul.
- Klay Thompson ($6,800), Jordan Poole ($6,400), and Draymond Green ($6,000) remain at solid prices for Warriors exposure while Khris Middleton ($6,000) is $900 cheaper than FD and an excellent play on DK especially if Holiday ends up out.
- Malcolm Brogdon ($4,800) is $800 cheaper than FD and is in play even if the Celtics don’t rest anyone on the b2b as he’s gone for 27+ FP in four straight games and his price hasn’t reflected his production yet so this could be the cheapest he’ll be for a while.
- CJ McCollum ($6,900) went down $500 in salary from last game after going for almost 50 FP so I’d expect him to go back to closer to $7.5k after today’s game so take advantage of this pricing in a projected high scoring, and close matchup with the Jazz tonight.
- If Fox sits keep Davion Mitchell ($4,300) on your radar while Kevin Huerter ($5,500) would be a cash game play for me. Some other super cheap options today include Derrick White ($4,300), Eric Gordon ($3,900), Patrick Beverley ($3,600), Blake Griffin ($3,800), Larry Nance ($4,400), and Kevon Looney ($4,500).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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