NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 12/29/22

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2022-12-29 23:48:58

There are six games on today’s main slate with no teams on a back-to-back so we have all the injury reports. We should also learn a lot of the questionable players’ statuses before lock as the latest game tips at 8:30PM EST and even that game has just one not-too-important Q player. We do have a few big Q tags in the 8PM game, so hopefully we get that news early and can build our teams before lock knowing everyone’s status, but knowing the NBA I’m sure we’ll get some surprise injury update as the day goes on or a starting lineup curveball so keep checking RG’s resources mentioned here to stay up to date on news and projections.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Tyrese Haliburton is probably the biggest questionable name today has he’s dealing with a knee bruise and his absence really opens up the usages and ceilings of the other starters. With Haliburton off the floor this season Andrew Nembhard and Myles Turner both score an additional .22 FPPM while Bennedict Mathurin and Myles Turner see +5.7% and +4.8% usage bumps respectively. If Haliburton ends up out I would consider Mathurin a top cash game play at his current prices while Nembhard and Turner would both be much more appealing plays as well. (Update: Haliburton is IN)

• Fred VanVleet, Precious Achiuwa, and Christian Koloko are questionable for Toronto with the latter two names not being very important for DFS as TOR has plenty of bigs to handle their minutes. If Achiuwa does end up playing it will be interesting to see if he starts for Juancho or is eased in off the bench but either way I doubt he’d see relevant minutes in his first game back. Pascal Siakam would benefit the most if VanVleet ends up out as he scores an additional .25 FPPM with FVV off the court bringing his total FPPM to 1.61 which is a full .52 higher than the next highest player in Anunoby. TOR could start a few different guys if FVV sits but Malachi Flynn would get my attention the most over anyone else if he starts as he’s $3,900 on DK and would be looking at 30+ minutes as a starter. (Update: FVV and Achiuwa are OUT, Koloko is IN)

• Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, and Doug McDermott are questionable for the Spurs with the former two names being pretty important for the slate as their absences would open up some nice value in Josh Richardson, Malaki Branham, and/or Stanley Johnson depending on who starts for them. Tre Jones and Jeremy Sochan would be much more appealing plays if either of Keldon or Vassell sit while McDermott’s minutes would be handled by all the available forwards if he sits. (Update: Keldon and McDermott are IN, Vassell is OUT)

• Jalen Brunson missed last game with hip soreness and is questionable today and if he ends up out I would consider Immanuel Quickley one of the top plays of the slate especially with Barrett also out. Quentin Grimes would also be a stronger play with no Brunson while Julius Randle scores an additional .18 FPPM with Brunson & Barrett off the floor bringing his total to a team high 1.43 FPPM putting him squarely in play as a top cash game target.

• Dennis Smith, Malcolm Brogdon, Reggie Bullock, Nick Richards, Blake Griffin, and Robin Lopez are other questionable names today whose absences shouldn’t affect much besides other bench guys getting more minutes.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• Aleksej Pokusevski is out indefinitely with a broken leg so we will likely see Mike Muscala start at center with Darius Bazley getting a bump in center time as well. Jalen Williams and Kenrich Williams will also see an uptick in minutes while the other starters get slight usage bumps with no Poku. (Update: Jaylin Williams is starting at C so Muscala and Bazley become riskier plays)

• With RJ Barrett out The Knicks could start Quickley or McBride but regardless of who does Quickley is by far the higher upside play of the two and is already in cash game consideration before we get the Brunson news. If Brunson ends up out I’d expect Quickley & McBride to both start while Rose & Reddish would be looking at bigger roles too.

• Eric Gordon is back after getting a rest day so Martin goes back to the bench and the Mavericks went with Wood & Powell in the frontcourt last game so they’ll likely stick with that especially if Bullock ends up out.

• Kelly Oubre was doubtful but is now available while Dennis Smith is out so Oubre is the top bench guard/wing for CHA tonight.

• OKC/CHA is standing out as the best game to target and stack today as it’s sitting at a 240.5 total while none of the other five games are over 230, and if that wasn’t enough it has the closest spread of the slate at just .5 while the other games are all 3 point spreads or bigger.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• LaMelo Ball ($9,000) finally hit $9k!!!!! He’s still way too cheap for the game environment against OKC today as he has legit 60+ FP upside so I will not be fading him in cash games at this price. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,800) is priced how Ball should be but with this game looking like a pure shootout with little defense I will happily pay up for SGA too and start my cash game lineup with the top PGs in the top game to target for DFS.

• Mike Muscala ($3,900) saw his most minutes of the season last game after Pokusevski got hurt and went for over 35 FP in 21 minutes, and assuming he draws the start today he will be the next guy I’m locking in to cash games as the elite matchup with CHA along with his price tag and upside all make his 7-10x value ceiling just too immense to fade. If we get the curveball and Darius Bazley ($4,800) starts at C then I’d have to consider him a strong cash game play but I might still go with Muscala for the $900 price discount with the hope he’d still see 20+ minutes off the bench. Jalen Williams ($5,600) and PJ Washington ($6,100) are the next guys from this game I’m looking to target if you want more exposure here. (Update: Jaylin Williams is starting at C for OKC so he’s my preferred value center for them now)

• With Barrett out and possibly Brunson too I’m going to do my best to jam in Julius Randle ($9,500) with SGA and Ball in cash games as he should see 40+ minutes and take as many shots as he wants today in a nice matchup with the Spurs. I’ve mentioned him a bunch but Immanuel Quickley ($6,000) will also be heavily involved today even if Brunson plays and is in cash game consideration right now but will be a cash game lock if Brunson ends up out.

• Dallas is in a great spot today too at home against Houston but it’s pretty much impossible to include Luka Doncic ($12,400) in a cash game lineup with SGA, Ball, and Randle as it leaves you with under $3,700 for each of the remaining five positions. After going for over 100 FP last game I’d expect a lot of people to chase that Doncic ceiling again today so we might get reduced ownership on one of the PG’s in the OKC/CHA game and for the price discount and ability to stack the game I’m leaning with SGA/Ball/Randle over Doncic along with the fact it’s a 10 point spread for Dallas so blowout risk is definitely in play. We can still get some nice Dallas exposure for cheap with Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,500) and/or Tim Hardaway ($5,800) while Christian Wood ($8,300) remains an excellent GPP play.

• Some other guys I like for the price on FD include Josh Giddey ($7,000), Gordon Hayward ($6,300), Desmond Bane ($6,100), Bennedict Mathurin ($5,000), and Eric Gordon ($4,300).

Looking at DraftKings:

• Immanuel Quickley ($5,000) is $1k cheaper than FD and will absolutely be in my cash game lineup regardless of the status of Brunson as he could still start for Barrett but should see 25+ minutes even off the bench but could see 40+ minutes if Brunson ends up out.

• Mike Muscala ($3,400) will also be a cash game lock if he starts for OKC but I’d still consider him close to a must-play if he comes off the bench as his price is just way too low for the matchup and potential opportunity of 30+ minutes. (Update: Jaylin Williams is starting at C for OKC so he’s my preferred value center for them now)

• The price gap between Luka Doncic ($12,000), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,100), and LaMelo Ball ($9,700) is much closer than it is on FD but it’s still impossible to fit all three with Julius Randle ($9,500) on DK. I’m definitely using Randle today with no Barrett so choosing two of the three guards is going to be tougher on DK for me but I am slightly leaning Doncic as he’s more likely to get the double-double and triple-double bonuses and the price gap just isn’t big enough as it is on FD to be able to make an overall solid lineup.

• PJ Washington ($5,300), Gordon Hayward ($6,000), and Jalen Williams ($5,000) all remain strong plays for the price in the best game to target while Dwight Powell ($3,300) could be in play for extreme value if he starts again to help you fit in a few of the elite studs today but just know he comes with a super low floor as shown by his 5 FP performance in 30 minutes last game.

• Eric Gordon ($3,400) is another of the extreme value plays I really like today as we’re going to need a few of them if we want to use three of SGA/Ball/Doncic/Randle in a lineup while Miles McBride ($3,200) and potentially some Spurs players (Richardson, S. Johnson, Branham) for under $4k could be in play if Vassell and/or Keldon end up out.

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

Image Credit: Imagn