NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/16/23
Just three games today before the All-Star Break begins tomorrow, and the Bulls are on a back-to-back so look for their first injury report later.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson are questionable for Minnesota, so Naz Reid would likely start if Gobert sits, while McDaniels and Taurean Prince would get most of Anderson’s minutes if out.
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- DeMar DeRozan, Alex Caruso, Goran Dragic, and Derrick Jones are all out for the Bulls, so their starting lineup is looking at major minutes, especially if they can keep this game competitive with the Bulls. Coby White will likely start in the backcourt with Dosunmu, while Dalen Terry, Carlik Jones, and Malcolm Hill will be the only backup guards/wings today.
- Khris Middleton and Pat Connaughton are out for the Bucks joining Portis and Crowder, so we’ll see either Beauchamp, Matthews, or Ingles likely draw the start.
- Norman Powell will sit today for rest, so the other bench guards/wings like Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, and Nicolas Batum will all see increased minutes and absorb Powell’s time.
- Durant, Payne, and Shamet remain out for Phoenix, but newly acquired Terrence Ross will be available to play for them today.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,500) had his best game of the season against the Bulls in late December going for almost 80 FP, and on such a small slate he is the priority for cash games as no one else offers that kind of upside like him today. Grayson Allen ($4,300) and Joe Ingles ($4,000) are solid targets if you need some SG/SF value as both should see minutes bumps with Middleton and Connaughton both out.
- Kyle Kuzma ($7,700) is the same price as last game where he went for over 46 FP in his first game back from injury, and in the highest projected game total of the slate against Minnesota, he is one of my favorite p/$ plays for cash games as not many guys under $8k have a 50+ FP ceiling like him. For Minnesota I like Mike Conley ($6,200) and Jaden McDaniels ($5,600) for cheap. Use our No House Advantage promo code when you first sign up, and I like betting the over on Kuzma’s points line of 22.5 today.
- With DeRozan out, Zach LaVine ($8,200) will once again be a top play as his price only went up $600 after dropping almost 60 FP yesterday, while Ayo Dosunmu ($4,400) is the same price as yesterday after going for 27+ FP in 42 minutes, and is a strong value play today especially with Caruso and Dragic both out. Coby White ($4,800) is also a top value play now as he should see over 30 minutes as a starter.
- Terance Mann ($5,100) continues to be a solid play for the price and is in play at PG/SG especially with Powell out, and for the Suns I like Josh Okogie ($5,600) for value as he’s seen 35 and 39 minutes his last two games, is averaging over 36 FPPG over his last three games, and should continue to see big minutes as LAC/PHO has the closest spread of the slate at just 1 point.
Looking at DraftKings:
- There’s still plenty of value to easily get Giannis in your cash game lineup, especially with a couple other Bucks players as Jrue Holiday ($7,500) is at his cheapest salary in over a month, and Grayson Allen ($3,900) / Joe Ingles ($3,400) are pretty much free and great punt plays today with Middleton & Connaughton out.
- I still really like Kyle Kuzma ($7,900) as his price went down $300 from last game, but I also really like Bradley Beal ($7,700) as he’s $1,600 cheaper than FD, saw a $300 price drop on DK, and has gone for 40+ FP in five of his last six games. Mike Conley ($5,200) and Jaden McDaniels ($4,300) remain my favorite p/$ plays from Minnesota, and I’ll also include Kyle Anderson ($4,600) if he is active and starts.
- Ayo Dosunmu ($4,200), Coby White ($4,100), Terance Mann ($4,600), and Josh Okogie ($4,900) remain some of my favorite plays under $5k, and I will almost certainly use a couple of them in order to fit in Giannis and at least a couple other studs in my main build.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Getty Images