NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/24/23

by Erik Wardenburg (naapstermaan) Last Updated 2023-02-24 23:27:57

Today’s eight game slate has a little bit of everything, as we have four teams on a back-to-back, players debuting for new teams, guys returning from injury, and a handful of big names already ruled out or likely out. Klay is expected to play today after he played the last Warriors b2b and he only saw 26 minutes yesterday, while the Cavs, Thunder, and Kings likely won’t be resting anyone as the other three b2b teams but make sure to check when we see their first injury reports later. Kevin Love & Cody Zeller will debut for the Heat, Patrick Beverley will debut for the Bulls, and Russell Westbrook will debut for the Clippers, with Westbrook being the most interesting for DFS as he’s cheap on both sites and could start right away. Some names returning or potentially returning from long injuries include Mitchell Robinson, Victor Oladipo, Bobby Portis, Kelly Oubre, and Cameron Payne.

This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.

Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview

There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!

This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!

NBA DFS Injury Roundup

Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.

Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo was upgraded to QUESTIONABLE at 3:30PM EST, and if available I’d be much less interested in guys like Holiday, Carter, and Portis.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is questionable with ankle soreness on the b2b, and if out I’d consider Josh Giddey a top play of the slate having to carry more offense and handle the ball a lot more, while Lu Dort would also be a much more appealing play as sees a usage bump of +6.5% and scores an additional .24 FPPM with SGA off the floor this season.

• Draymond Green is questionable for Golden State, and if out I’d expect Kuminga and Looney to start in the frontcourt with both being very strong plays at their current prices on both sites.

• Bradley Beal is questionable with knee soreness, and if out Corey Kispert would likely start and be a low-upside value option, while Porzingis, Kuzma, and Morris would all see around 2-3% usage bumps each. (Update: Beal is IN)

• Mitchell Robinson is questionable to return from his thumb injury, and if active he could start right away or be eased in off the bench, but either way his presence would take Sims and Hartenstein out of any DFS consideration. If Robinson remains out then look for Sims to continue to start with Hartenstein backing him up and being the higher upside play. (Update: Robinson is IN)

• Ben Simmons is questionable with knee soreness, but given his new bench role his status won’t have much impact on the slate, as his 15-20 minutes would just be absorbed by guys like O’Neale, Thomas, Curry, and Harris. (Update: Simmons is OUT)

• Cameron Payne, Cedi Osman, Taurean Prince, and Goran Dragic are a few other questionable players today whose minutes would just be absorbed by the other bench players for their respective teams if out.

If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.

NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target

Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.

• The Bucks will likely be without Giannis as he’s doubtful with his wrist injury, along with Connaughton who is doubtful with calf soreness. Matthews is officially out with a calf strain, but Bobby Portis is off the injury report and could start right away for Giannis. I’d expect Jevon Carter to draw the start for Connaughton and Khris Middleton to be heavily involved as well, while newly added Jae Crowder and Meyers Leonard will be available to help where needed today too. Overall for the Bucks though, Jrue Holiday will benefit the most from Giannis sitting, Carter will be a solid value play if he starts, and guys like Lopez and Portis will be high-upside GPP targets. (Update: Giannis was upgraded to QUESTIONABLE at 3:30PM EST)

• For the Heat, only Kyle Lowry is a DFS relevant player on their injury report as he’s still out, so Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo will be back after missing some time for injury. Look for Gabe Vincent to continue to start at PG for Lowry and Herro to get his starting SG spot back, while the frontcourt will get some much needed depth as newly added Kevin Love and Cody Zeller will be available today.

• The Rockets will be without Kevin Porter and Jalen Green, so backcourt minutes are going to be widely available for guys like TyTy Washington, JaeSean Tate, Josh Christopher, Trevor Hudgins, and Daishen Nix. We’re projecting Washington and Tate to start at PG/SG, and if that ends up true then I’d consider Washington one of the top value plays of the slate at his current salaries. Jabari Smith and KJ Martin are also looking like very strong plays for the price as both will have to carry more offense with Houston’s top two scorers out.

• Andrew Wiggins is likely still out due to a personal family matter, so Donte DiVincenzo should continue to start for him. The Warriors also went with Jonathan Kuminga over Kevon Looney as a starter last game so we’re projecting that again today.

• Ivica Zubac is out for the Clippers, so Mason Plumlee will almost certainly start at center and should be a very strong play at his current salaries, as there is very little center depth behind him now that Moses Brown is gone. Russell Westbrook is expected to start today, so Mann will rejoin the second unit off the bench.

• DeMar DeRozan is off the injury report with his quad injury so look for him to start, while newly added Patrick Beverley will be available, and although he likely won’t start today, he may end up starting in the future over Dosunmu. Derrick Jones is also off the injury report and will be available to backup the forward spots.

• With John Collins out, Saddiq Bey will likely start for Atlanta, but at his current salaries I’m not too excited about using him in a tough matchup with Cleveland.

• Kelly Oubre is probable to return from his hand injury for Charlotte, but I’d expect him to be somewhat eased back in off the bench, so the upside for Rozier and Hayward is still there for me today.

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks

With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.

If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.

On FanDuel:

• We might not know until after lock, but for now I’m working under the assumption TyTy Washington ($4,000) will start for Houston, and for that price and the chance he’ll see 25-30 minutes, I’m considering him a top value play of the slate. JaeSean Tate ($4,400) hasn’t cracked 26 minutes since becoming a starter, but today is his best chance at getting up to 30 minutes with both Porter and Green out, and with 5-7x value upside against a Warriors team on a b2b, I will almost certainly have him and/or Washington in my main build today. Sengun is a bit too pricey at $7.5k, but KJ Martin ($5,800) and Jabari Smith ($5,600) are at really nice prices if you want more HOU exposure as both will have to carry more offense today.

• On the other side of that game I’d consider Jonathan Kuminga ($4,100) a top value play if he starts again, as he still put up over 21 FP yesterday even while going just 1 for 5 from three with no steals or blocks, so his ceiling is definitely much higher even if he gets around 25 minutes again. Draymond Green ($6,800) would be my next favorite p/$ target from the Warriors.

• With Giannis and Connaughton likely out, and Mathews officially out, Jrue Holiday ($8,000) is just a bit too cheap given the usage and ceiling bump he’ll see today even in a projected low scoring game with Miami, and I’d expect him to be a pretty popular cash game PG today. Jevon Carter ($3,800) saw 32 minutes last game as a starter for Connaughton, and with Giannis likely out too he should have a 30 minute floor and is great value option at the PG/SG spots. (Update: Giannis was upgraded to QUESTIONABLE at 3:30PM EST)

• At the center position, Mark Williams ($5,700) is the same price as last game in which he went for 35 FP in 29 minutes, and in the highest projected game total of the slate against MIN, he is my favorite p/$ center on FD today and this is probably the last chance we will get to play him for under $6k.

Looking at DraftKings:

• JaeSean Tate ($4,100) and TyTy Washington ($3,000) remain top value plays assuming both start, along with Jonathan Kuminga ($4,200) & Jevon Carter ($4,300).

• Minnesota has a couple cheap options to consider today in Kyle Anderson ($5,100) and Jaden McDaniels ($4,700), as the T-Wolves draw a great matchup with Charlotte and have the highest projected team total of the slate, so getting exposure to them in some capacity in cash games seems like a good plan. Anderson is my favorite p/$ play for them while McDaniels is a fine 25+ FP upside play for the price, and Rudy Gobert ($7,200) went up $1k in salary from last game but still has an excellent matchup and 45+ FP upside today. Use our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, and I’d recommend betting the over 11.5 points line for Anderson there today.

• With Zubac out for LAC, Mason Plumlee ($5,100) should draw the start, and at a $700 discount to FD it’s going to be hard to pass him up in cash games at that price, as he should see 25+ minutes and could see 30+ minutes if this game stays close and he can get it going early. The Clippers don’t have Moses Brown anymore either, so center depth behind Plumlee is basically Covington and Diabate, so unless they go small a lot or give Diabate 15+ minutes, Plumlee has a chance at big minutes and huge upside at a great price, so he’s my top DK p/$ center today.

• The Thunder had to travel on a b2b and have a tough matchup with Phoenix, but if you need more value I’d consider Lu Dort ($4,500) or Jaylin Williams ($3,400), as both have 6x value upside at those prices. Other cheap plays I like on DK include Cameron Johnson ($5,200), Josh Okogie ($5,200), Daniel Gafford ($4,800), Monte Morris ($4,600), and Marcus Morris ($3,800),

Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.

NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock

If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.

For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.

Good luck today!

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