NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 2/9/23
A huge trade went down overnight, with Kevin Durant and TJ Warren going to the Suns for Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, and picks. None of those five will be available today, so the Suns will have just 9 players available as Booker is also out for rest and Dario Saric was traded to OKC, making Paul and Ayton top plays looking at big usage bumps. The Nets could still be active as far as trades today, and their starting lineup could go a bunch of different ways if Dinwiddie and Finney-Smith aren’t traded, but overall I’m not super high on them in DFS as a team today as minutes and rotations are a bit unknown with the new additions. The Lakers also made a big move yesterday acquiring Russell from Minnesota and Beasley/Vanderbilt from Utah, while sending Westbrook/Jones/Toscano-Anderson to Utah. None of the new additions will be available for them today, and with Westbrook gone there’s a lot more usage for Schroder, while AD could be looking at a big time usage rate if James ends up sitting (currently questionable). None of the eight teams playing today are on a back-to-back so we have all the injury reports, but be prepared for potential chaos as the trade deadline is 3PM EST today, and guys playing today may not be available by lock time.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Jamal Murray is questionable for Denver, and if out Bruce Brown would likely start at PG and Aaron Gordon would see a nice +4% usage bump while scoring an additional .18 FPPM with Murray/Nnaji/Hyland off the floor this season. Hyland could see minutes if he isn’t traded, but Gordon still sees nice bumps in usage and FPPM with just Murray off the floor. (Update: Murray is OUT)
- DeMar DeRozan is questionable for Chicago, and if out Alex Caruso would likely start and be a decent value play, while Zach LaVine & Nikola Vucevic would become top plays of the slate as they score an additional .11 and .18 FPPM respectively with DDR off the floor. Ayo Dosunmu would also be a much more appealing value play as he went for around 30 FP in 37 minutes last game with DDR out. (Update: DeRozan is IN)
- LeBron James is questionable with his ankle soreness again, and if out I would consider Anthony Davis the top play of the slate, while Brown or Reaves would likely start, and guys like Schroder and Hachimura would be more appealing value options. (Update: LBJ is OUT)
- Gary Harris is questionable for Orlando, and if out Jalen Suggs would likely start at SG and at his currently salaries he would be in strong cash game consideration. (Update: Harris OUT)
- Yuta Watanabe and DayRon Sharpe are questionable for Brooklyn, so they could be down to O’Neale, Simmons, Finney-Smith, and Claxton as available PF/Cs if both end up out. Claxton is now questionable too so they could be down to Simmons & Sharpe as their centers. (Update: Yuta and Sharpe are IN, Claxton is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Nets starting lineup could look different than what we currently have projected, as Cam Thomas has been on a historic run his last three games and may have earned a permanent starting spot, and Dorian Finney-Smith may start over Harris or O’Neale.
- With Booker, Bridges, Saric, and Johnson out for the Suns, I’d expect Damion Lee, Torrey Craig, and either Wainright or Okogie to start, and whoever ends up starting is looking at big minutes with only nine players available for Phoenix today.
- Patrick Beverley and Thomas Bryant were traded away, so Walker, Brown, Reaves, Gabriel, and Christie will all see more minutes today with one likely starting at SG today.
- The other teams’ starting lineups should be what we have projected, unless any of the questionable players get ruled out or starters get traded away before 3PM EST.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I’m expecting a lot of Suns players in cash games today, as there is a ton of usage available for the starters with Booker/Bridges/Johnson/Saric not playing. I would use at least one of if not both Chris Paul ($8,100) and Deandre Ayton ($8,600) in your main build, and I will likely use at least one of Damion Lee ($3,900) and Torrey Craig ($4,500) for value depending on how other news breaks today and what value plays open up at other positions.
- Zach LaVine ($7,600) remains underpriced in a projected close matchup with Brooklyn, and he could push for 40 minutes again if DeRozan sits. Nikola Vucevic ($9,000) would also see a boost in minutes with no DDR, and with FP outputs of 40+ in ten of his last eleven games including two games over 65 FP, he is my next favorite p/$ center after Ayton for cash games, but would jump to my favorite play if DeRozan sits. Ayo Dosunmu ($5,200) saw an $800 price increase from last game, and would only be in play for me if DDR is out.
- There’s isn’t much value under $5k I’m currently liking outside of the Suns cheap projected starters, but Pat Connaughton ($4,400) remains a solid cash game target as his price went down $600 from last game, and he should have a 5x value floor at that price and does have 6-7x upside in the projected highest scoring game of the night against the Lakers.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Chris Paul ($7,300) could be the highest owned player in DK cash games as his price went down $500 from last game, and he’s at one of his cheapest salaries of the season looking at a big usage rate in a pace up game with the Hawks. Deandre Ayton ($7,900) went down $200 in salary after his second straight 56+ FP game, and will also be a popular play for good reason at that price. Damion Lee ($3,200) is going to be hard to fade in cash games at that price, along with Torrey Craig ($4,100) who gets a boost with Saric traded away, so I’m expecting most lineups to have at least three if not four Suns in them today as their salaries do not reflect the usage and minutes the starters should see today. Check out our No House Advantage promo code for new signups, and I like betting the over CP3’s 17.5 points line there today.
- Markelle Fultz ($5,700) is another player I much prefer on DK to FD as he’s $800 cheaper, and could be looking at a few extra minutes if Harris ends up out. Fultz has averaged 31 FPPG over his last five games, and is one of my favorite plays for under $6k on DK today.
- Speaking of cheap PGs, Ayo Dosunmu ($4,200) actually dropped $100 in salary and is now $1k cheaper than his FD price, and with five straight games of 20+ FP, he is squarely in play for cash games regardless of DeRozan’s status, but would be a lock for me if DDR sits.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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